2 replies to this topic

[Bond_Guy]

DJIA, NDX, SPX will trade at least 10% from recent highs. Oil & Iran are just speeding things up. Earnings growth is declining. Consumers are strapped. FED can't cut rates because inflation is being imported. Don't believe the bull case about 10 yr yields proviging low cost of capital. PE multiples will not expand. look at what the average PE was in the 70's. Stay short and add to position on any bounce. This has long way to go.

[Cirrus]

I agree ST but LT into the 2008 election I think the odds of seeing a weak housing market, weak economy AND weak stock market are virtually NIL. I think things are likely to hold relatively well until mid 2008. Of course, we are due a violent 10% correction. Gotta be flexible though as anything can happen.

[arbman]

That's been my thinking since Dec, they have to take the indices down now through the summer, so that they can cross the finish line with the best possible window dressing next year. The rates will be lower, the markets will be up, the housing will stabilize, but then beyond 2008 or early 2009? You will have the lowest rates, highest stock returns and even more inflated or artificially held up housing with a probably desperate currency. The USD is due for a major low in 2011-2012, so are the rest of the markets probably...