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[Tor]

HSBC: US Mar Chicago PMI - Quick Thoughts An unbelievable surge in the index from 47.9 to 61.7, with new orders going crazy from 48.7 to 72.2 and production surging 14pts to 64.9. Employment, however, slumped nearly 6pts to 45, suggesting all the ouput was productivity driven, which presumably is good for profits. The attached chart suggests this Chicago reading is consistent with about 57 in ISM manufacturing. We don't want to completely ignore the strength in this report, but it is worth bearing in mind that it is erratic, and our previous work suggests Philly Fed is a better gauge of manufacturing, and that was weak at 0.2 (as was Empire at 1.9).