8 replies to this topic

[Sentient Being]

You know, I think I'd like to run a survey. 1) Have you traded stocks for more than 10 years 2) Have you compared your results to a well balanced buy and hold portfolio that holds stocks, bonds, real estate? 3) Have you "beat" that portfolio? 4) Have you really? 5) Are you capable of being honest about your trading or are you so gripped by trading fever that you can't see what you are doing? I know people with really well balanced portfolios that made money during the tech bust. Their stocks funds went down, their bond funds went up. They weren't seriously over allocated to tech and they did fine. I've got over a thousand dollars worth of trading books to my right sitting on my shelf. Many them have been called "the best" trading book by some of you. A white board on the left wall to track trading. I've got several thousand dollars worth of trading, system building, and charting software on my computer. I've spent a decade reading about trading, following trading boards, attempting trading, buying trading services, reading trading magazines, believing in trading gurus and playing with charts. And my conclusion is, I would have been a hell of a smart man to spread my trading funds all out between stocks, bonds, Real estate, domestic and foreign and let it ride while enjoying some other hobby. No one knows where the hell the market is going next and there are darn few people that really profit over the long run from their labor in this field of trading. They must indeed be exceptional people and I'm not one of them and I've not been able to hire any of them. In the next few weeks I think I'll push another 20 or 40 grand over to my buy and hold, well diversified side of the house and out of my trading pile. I've got at least 15 years before retirement, there is time to grow it. I intend to keep dabbling a bit till the end of this year year....but at the end of that year, I may abandon the game completely in total disgust. I've not lost much, I've managed my risk. But I've not been able to outperform on the way down or up. I've not been able to justify my efforts with success. To me, success is outperforming a well diversified buy and hold account. keeping an accurate trading diary is a great thing. At the end of the year I can look at the return, see how a well diversified portfolio returned, and face the horrible truth of my own performance, I'm not smarter than the market. I'm like a drug addict that has found bottom, looked around, and said: "It's time to get out of this place". In my case, I'll leave with my cash...but I coulda had more if I didn't think I could read the market somehow. Are we at top, bottom, going up, going down? Will trend continue, stop, pause, change. Day in and day out the same darn questions and no one knows and I think most of us have no real clue. People who stunningly outperform the market turn around and lose it all the next decade. Be it a Prechter or a Livermore they make it, they lose it. Better to sell a trading service than to try and actually survive with what you can do in the market! Well, its the weekend. And more profitable than staring at charts that really can't tell me what's going to happen next would be for me to gather up all the large trash items in the house and take them to the dump. So that's my first goal this fine Saturday morning! And by the way, if there is one of you, just one of you, that is a miracle trader, that really can outperform a buy and hold year in and year out, that has done it for a long long time, can teach it via email, and is not a DAY TRADER, send me an email if you want to train me. Hmm, never mind. At this time, I'm not sure I would believe you can trade the markets even if you could prove it. I'd just think the good years are behind you and you are about to hit the season that blows you up and takes away all the advantage you thought you had. I've hit bottom, not the bottom of my cash but the bottom of my belief that I can outperform using trading tools. Tight Risk management saved this from being a true sob story about some guy that lost it all. I didn't lose, but I didn't win either. Except in my buy and hold, diversified portfolio. The market beat me, my buy and hold beat me. Fortunately my wife wont have to beat me because I wasn't willing to risk absolute failure. But I can get as discouraged about failing to outperform the market and about wasting my time as anyone who ever lost it all.

[teknobucks]

I've hit bottom, not the bottom of my cash but the bottom of my belief that I can outperform using trading tools. Tight Risk management saved this from being a true sob story about some guy that lost it all. I didn't lose, but I didn't win either. Except in my buy and hold, diversified portfolio. The market beat me, my buy and hold beat me. Fortunately my wife wont have to beat me because I wasn't willing to risk absolute failure. But I can get as discouraged about failing to outperform the market and about wasting my time as anyone who ever lost it all. [/quote] NONE of my neighbors DAY TRADE....not one of them! most all of them made their money in business or real estate. good luck & thanks for the honest post!

[mss]

You know, I think I'd like to run a survey.

1) Have you traded stocks for more than 10 years
2) Have you compared your results to a well balanced buy and hold portfolio that holds stocks, bonds, real estate?
3) Have you "beat" that portfolio?
4) Have you really?
5) Are you capable of being honest about your trading or are you so gripped by trading fever that you can't see what you are doing?

Hi SB,
Going to answer your questions by number.
1) Yes
2) Yes, however only 2 bonds, no real estate.
3) Yes but I do both.
4) Yes, buy and hold (risk mgt on the hold), averages 27% rolling 3 year. Trading (buy & sell in less than 6mo) sometimes as much as 60+%, but I almost never day trade and never use margin.
5) Honest about making money. No fear, trading sometimes is pure fun for me.

Hope the best to you and only YOU can learn how to invest/trade others can offer suggestions, but only you can make them work.
mss

Edited by mss, 31 March 2007 - 09:29 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

You may be trading too much, SB. My longer term portfolios have outperformed my active timing portfolio during this Bull market, but if you include the Bear, I'd say they're close but the timing portfolio is beating. Bear in mind that I'm also "trading, my long term portfolio. I've had ample cash in those accounts most of the time since fall of 2003, and I've done some tax shuffling and took some short-term profits. I've also hedged. I'm ahead of the S&P net of fees in my managed accounts in aggregate from inception of each discipline, but not by a lot. I did, however, do it without losing a bit (ok maybe a little bit) of sleep and with about 1/3 the volatility of the market in the timing accounts and with about 2/3's (I'm guessing) the volatility in the Modified Value accounts. You've probably seen a lot of my short term trade and will probably note that I have a lot of winners, but trading is spotty, with long stretches sometimes when I do very little. That's because I never trade when I'm "off" or when I feel like I'm forcing, or when I'm not getting good set ups. If I was on all the time, I'd get more trades, but there would still be ample periods of inactivity. I'd rather have lower overall returns with a better win/loss ratio. That's just me and my psyche. I've come to grips with it. Mark

[J.Bilkins]

I make 60-70% a year swing trading. This does not include the day trading. Real time. HAve since 2003 when I was short QQQ via rydex. Made 40% in 2002. I covered at the bottom and went long loading boat loading the boat with commodity plays. I owe some of that credit to a guy called simpleguy who was the best trader I have ever seen besides a guy called ataman who beat me in that contest in 2001 or whenever it was......he had a delta neutral strategy that was unreal......simpleguy was an elliott wave master.... Sent 100k to simpleguy to invest for me. He illegally scammed me with a stock called IVAN and I lost 60k in my fathers portfolio.......where I use to trade a few million......I put him in cds before the 400 point drop on the dow due to the carry trade... I'll be doing it again this year as well....real time and usually well before the fact. Please do not confue this with the daytrading though which is what you mostly see at my site.....stock buys are mostly there though... No bs. Verified at www.capitalstool.com Loaded techs oct 2002 then flipped to commodities in April 03 and let things ride. trading before 2002 is verified with a google search of strikerm3. My name even got tagged purposely to associate it with others sites... Lost everything. but nothing to do with trading. Massive surgeries and the bills knocked me down big time and it is still on going. I would never trade again if my health could be traded. Still on the ropes with yet another surgery later this year and another after that one. Sucks but it is the truth. I was also a bad drug addict and now in recovery. It obviously did not help things and led to worse problems. Trying to restart life now. All profits are taken out of the market and income has been spent for years on the obvious so no compunding is included. I hope that offsets the bragging to a neutral bias. Before 2002 I made 30% in 2001 trading to the long side only I did the same pretty much. At the strikerm3 google link there is a real time contest against the msn pros that I beat all of them. I came in 3rd place then.....info all there..... I had no clue of what an option even was in 2000. All my friends were trading them so I loaded down and did great.....for awhile that is. Then I got blasted so hard I had to sell my BMW M3 and filed bankruptcy. Now days I flip houses from the auctions for more income than the markets per allocated time. No clue what I was up in 2003 but it was 200-300%. I pulled out so much acash etc. that it is impossible to give an accurate statement. Vector can verify this further. He hated me in early 2003 when I was calling the bottom. We later became friends......not really anymore though tdue to by original drug withdrawal issues.. I blasted semibizz etc. to the moon but he wouldn't admit it.....that it if he is in fact swinger........same with The End (someone I respect alot). They even started a website for me called www.bullstool.com His has netted me nothing in the end since I threw away alot of my life inthe process.....

[hiker]

the one technical tool that seems to be too simple for some friends with whom I correspond is:

a rising price trend with unbroken weekly support.

Folks seems to want to make this biz more complicated than it is. We seem to want to be "cute" with our trading techniques, and with our selection of what to trade.

Yes, I agree with you it is hard to beat a buy and only sell when a "sell signal" is given strategy.

look at the 3-year weekly charts for these rising trenders shown in the link below, updated through 3/30/07 closing basis, and the best candidates come to the surface quickly -


http://www.traders-t...?...d=26&cat=34

this is a Canadian symbol which has been mentioned at TT for more than a year, and has both TA and fundys supporting the trend...I am aware of many traders that entered it $6 to 9 because of conversations here and at TW about it -

http://stockcharts.c...llery.html?u.to

Edited by hiker, 31 March 2007 - 12:24 PM.

[Chilidawgz]

Sentient Being,



I have noted your trading and have seen that you try and build an investment model with your risk spread in several investment categories. It seems you enter a market a little after it has taken off and exit a little after it is reversing. I was always thinking you were making decisions based on moving averages. And as you say, neither winning nor losing much.



A trader has to truly learn who they are in this game of games.

• I think the first and most important aspect of one's character is to determine what is the time frame one is comfortable and capable of trading. Are you truly a trader or as you suggested a buy and hold diversified investor.
• Also right up there for me is managing your risk exposure. If I am wrong about a position, I sell and either go to the sidelines or take the opposite side of the trade for the market I am in.
• What are the tools for your time frame and and have you tried them out and modeled some type of discipline using them in the market. (Even with a model, one needs to constantly learn and adjust as the markets always change)

Now as for me and why and how I have come to where I am today. For years I worked for a large electronics company and it was hell for me to work for someone who structured my life 5 or 6 days a week. (I actually enjoyed the work and especially the people I worked with which made it function for me) What kept me sane in my forties and early fifties was I knew I was working and saving to get free and trade my tax sheltered money to earn a living. Prior to this, I used what everyone else used: Limited access to a few mutual funds, a bond fund and cash. I was always very conservative in allocating to the stock mutual funds as I didn't have control as to when to buy or sell them. The company restricted active trading for their mediocre offerings. So, my financial ability was very limited other than accumulating funds for later. Ok, long story short, I was terminated just before retirement age by that company and now I have control and access to my funds.



The last three years have been a real discovery of the three items listed above. Time frame, risk management and tools. I always thought I was a longer term trader using weekly and daily charts and timing signals. To my surprise I have found out that I am more of a swing trader, sometimes a day trader. I never would have thought this about myself but that is what works for me.



My investment vehicles that I have come to use are RYDEX and the new offerings from ProFunds:

http://www.proshares.com/abtfunds



I don't use individual stocks except for gold shares when the time is right. I never use mutual funds. I have not used options but I am set up and they are available to me. I almost set up an account at a broker which allows trading futures in an IRA account, maybe down the road.



All of my trading is done in tax sheltered accounts and I always use leverage. I am rarely ever 100% committed to an investment position unless to my point of view I think I can see an obvious short term probability where the market I am following is going…long or short.



As for tools that I use. I like the histogram of the MACD to see peaks in the vehicles I am following. The McClellan oscillator is important to use. The ARM's index on a daily basis going from overbought/oversold and the 5 day ARM's. RSI also. Those are basics but I have other tools I watch. What volume is doing and the advance decline numbers reveal how the market is doing and it's strength.



My model I have built has three sections to it:



First are the actual trading indicators I use (number one is a momentum indicator that I have adapted from Decision Points site and the MACD histo is a close second.)



Second are trend indicators



And last are overbought/oversold indicators.



These essentially break down to daily, intermediate and longer term views of the indexes.





I am always readjusting and refining my trading tools as I get more experience in shorter term time frames. This last year or so though, I have pretty much developed my working toolset. The chart time frame I use is the daily but with the 60 minute giving early heads up for trades. I also look over my shoulder occasionally at the weekly which is great for spotting longer term tops and bottoms in indexes and ahead to a 15 minute chart.



I always search for markets which may appear to be overbought or oversold in the stock indexes, gold shares, and the dollar when it is trending and maybe the oil markets. My bread and butter is trading the QQQQ and IWM though.



My first timid year on my own I did about 12%. Last year I did about 21%, the first quarter of this year I did 9.4%. I think I have my style and methods down after a learning curve…at least I hope. As I said, I am rarely 100% committed with my funds and I think the real reason I became an active trader is that I absolutely could not stomach draw downs on longer time frames.



This weekend I sit in 100% cash after taking a little money out of the QQQQ's Friday morning. Where is the market headed next week? Don't know right now. It is showing weakness the last several days but is attempting a turn to the upside…I will let next week show me.



Best, Chili

PS One thing I had to learn. It's not a bull market or a bear market...which way is the price going is all that matters.

Edited by Chilidawgz, 31 March 2007 - 12:28 PM.

[J.Bilkins]

Real time example for Monday morning for Swing Trading portfolio.

I tried....takes awhile. Study the strategy and not the stock....

http://laosung.blogspot.com/

[vitaminm]

You know, I think I'd like to run a survey.

1) Have you traded stocks for more than 10 years
2) Have you compared your results to a well balanced buy and hold portfolio that holds stocks, bonds, real estate?
3) Have you "beat" that portfolio?
4) Have you really?
5) Are you capable of being honest about your trading or are you so gripped by trading fever that you can't see what you are doing?

I know people with really well balanced portfolios that made money during the tech bust. Their stocks funds went down, their bond funds went up. They weren't seriously over allocated to tech and they did fine.

I've got over a thousand dollars worth of trading books to my right sitting on my shelf. Many them have been called "the best" trading book by some of you. A white board on the left wall to track trading. I've got several thousand dollars worth of trading, system building, and charting software on my computer. I've spent a decade reading about trading, following trading boards, attempting trading, buying trading services, reading trading magazines, believing in trading gurus and playing with charts.

And my conclusion is, I would have been a hell of a smart man to spread my trading funds all out between stocks, bonds, Real estate, domestic and foreign and let it ride while enjoying some other hobby. No one knows where the hell the market is going next and there are darn few people that really profit over the long run from their labor in this field of trading. They must indeed be exceptional people and I'm not one of them and I've not been able to hire any of them.

In the next few weeks I think I'll push another 20 or 40 grand over to my buy and hold, well diversified side of the house and out of my trading pile. I've got at least 15 years before retirement, there is time to grow it. I intend to keep dabbling a bit till the end of this year year....but at the end of that year, I may abandon the game completely in total disgust. I've not lost much, I've managed my risk. But I've not been able to outperform on the way down or up. I've not been able to justify my efforts with success. To me, success is outperforming a well diversified buy and hold account.

keeping an accurate trading diary is a great thing. At the end of the year I can look at the return, see how a well diversified portfolio returned, and face the horrible truth of my own performance, I'm not smarter than the market.

I'm like a drug addict that has found bottom, looked around, and said: "It's time to get out of this place". In my case, I'll leave with my cash...but I coulda had more if I didn't think I could read the market somehow.

Are we at top, bottom, going up, going down? Will trend continue, stop, pause, change. Day in and day out the same darn questions and no one knows and I think most of us have no real clue. People who stunningly outperform the market turn around and lose it all the next decade. Be it a Prechter or a Livermore they make it, they lose it. Better to sell a trading service than to try and actually survive with what you can do in the market!

Well, its the weekend. And more profitable than staring at charts that really can't tell me what's going to happen next would be for me to gather up all the large trash items in the house and take them to the dump. So that's my first goal this fine Saturday morning!

And by the way, if there is one of you, just one of you, that is a miracle trader, that really can outperform a buy and hold year in and year out, that has done it for a long long time, can teach it via email, and is not a DAY TRADER, send me an email if you want to train me. Hmm, never mind. At this time, I'm not sure I would believe you can trade the markets even if you could prove it. I'd just think the good years are behind you and you are about to hit the season that blows you up and takes away all the advantage you thought you had.

I've hit bottom, not the bottom of my cash but the bottom of my belief that I can outperform using trading tools. Tight Risk management saved this from being a true sob story about some guy that lost it all. I didn't lose, but I didn't win either. Except in my buy and hold, diversified portfolio. The market beat me, my buy and hold beat me. Fortunately my wife wont have to beat me because I wasn't willing to risk absolute failure. But I can get as discouraged about failing to outperform the market and about wasting my time as anyone who ever lost it all.

SB,

Trade for fun if u have time but

U will sleep better with these funds.


check ANNUAL TOTAL RETURN (%) HISTORY on these funds

VFIIX(yield 5.11%), VWEHX(yield 6.98%), PRHYX(yield 7.19%), VFINX


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=PRHYX


http://finance.yahoo... vfin...0&a=&c=

http://finance.yahoo... vfin...0&a=&c=

Edited by vitaminm, 31 March 2007 - 10:42 PM.