17 replies to this topic

[AChartist]

Correlated to dollar decline, would you consider socking away foreign currencies in safety deposit, which ones, swiss, euro, chinese, yen? I expect when dollar index goes below 78, its 40 within a few years. 1913 federal reserve $1 is now .04, the decimal will be moving over soon. A long time ago, it was Larry Tomlinson projected $37,000 per once gold, that says as much about the dollar as it does gold. I'm thinking that you already have mortgage companies ceasing to exist, several hedge funds already, 1998 hedge fund was said to bring down the entire banking structure so they just printed their way out. This printing could certainly accelerate, each one compounding over the last moving the decimal quickly. When you take 2% GDP minus 5-6% real inflation minus 10% debt growth ( funny how that matches money supply growth) your collapsing a superpower 14% per year, that's only 7 years to zero, not much time to prepare. I'm thinking gold related securities are useless, big brokerages houses ceasing to exist is not too far away, no one to redeam shares. I'm thinking real stuff in safety deposit. I'm thinking you can't eat the brokerage statement.

[cgnx]

Totally insane thinking right there. Cmon, just imagine the dividend on gold shares when gold hits $10,000 an ounce. The idea that the stock market ceases to exist or that your ownership of a mining company would no longer be secure is to claim the end of civilization. Is your name Nostradamus?

[AChartist]

Suit yourself. I just saw with my own eyes the mortgage companies cease to exist. Real stuff. I just saw three years of accelerating 10% money supply growth at 2% GDP growth and 5-6%, thats an alarming rate of internal collapse. Wait to see the post sub-prime bailout surge in money supply. I plan in 2008 to borrow everything out of the 401k ( have to pay it back of course ) and convert it all to real currency. I don't want anything, zero, in an institution by around 2010. All they have to give you back is the shares.

[AChartist]

Well since no one answered, I'm thinking primarily gold and silver but possible chinese and swiss currencies also. In fractional reserve banking, the national avg is 8x deposits. 8x deposits are loaned out, ie there is no money, it's 8x negative. I guess what there is is in brokerages and brokerage divisions of the major banks. Where are the .1% of people who own 90% of the planet, my guess is in switzerland. Just have to follow what currency is going up, that's where they are found.

[mdwllc]

AChartist: I did create an answer but don't ask me where it went!!!! In full disclosure to my relevant positions to the area you're asking about, I am currently long 10 C$ contracts with a CTG stop at 85.95 and am short Precious Metals through a position in UKPIX. [The latter may possibly change after 4/4 or later this summer]. In regard to currencies, I don't follow China, but personally I don't care for it since I believe it is manipulated. My personal interest is the SFranc and Euro$. Both of them completed their 8 1/2 month, 26 month, and 4 year cycles early last year. They should at least test their all time highs of 1995 and 2006 at least. If they take out their May 2006 high, then they should test new highs in the next 2-3 years. If they don't do anything soon, then they should incur a cycle low Aug 2007 - Jan 2008 and then begin an acceleration. If you're interested in the #/Yen, then it should be bottoming out between May and Aug 2007. There are various PM options you can consider: CEF and SLV are backed by physical ore. Most of the other funds are derivatives or equity based. As for currencies, I use ProShares DB ETF's, ProFunds rising/falling dollar etc. Best of luck. Contact me if you have any questions. MDW

[PorkLoin]

Chinese and Swiss currencies sound mighty good to me. Certainly don't know the future but think it's unreasonable to imagine things going along as "well" as they have been for Americans for say, the next two decades versus the past 25 years. Doug

[AChartist]

Thanks for the reply.

I make incremental purchases of gold and silver when I can,
physical. Gold in the 401k funds is long term unless something
forces me to give up on that. I don't anticipate that but you
never know.

I'm thinking of holding hard currencies in safe deposit
instead of holding dollars. So it would have to be a long term
idea.

Currency growth would have to be related to a positive growth
economy with production. I just remember econ 101, you
didn't create value unless you made and sold something, old fashion
production is real money.
I'm thinking China.

Even everything of japanese brand is made in china now. My japanese owned
industrustrial company builds all their capital equip in china now, and is
building assembly plants there.

And I'm thinking Swiss more of a political basis. Does the swiss still
have a gold backing?


This jig is up.

AChartist: I did create an answer but don't ask me where it went!!!! In full disclosure to my relevant positions to the area you're asking about, I am currently long 10 C$ contracts with a CTG stop at 85.95 and am short Precious Metals through a position in UKPIX. [The latter may possibly change after 4/4 or later this summer].



In regard to currencies, I don't follow China, but personally I don't care for it since I believe it is manipulated. My personal interest is the SFranc and Euro$. Both of them completed their 8 1/2 month, 26 month, and 4 year cycles early last year. They should at least test their all time highs of 1995 and 2006 at least. If they take out their May 2006 high, then they should test new highs in the next 2-3 years. If they don't do anything soon, then they should incur a cycle low Aug 2007 - Jan 2008 and then begin an acceleration. If you're interested in the #/Yen, then it should be bottoming out between May and Aug 2007.



There are various PM options you can consider: CEF and SLV are backed by physical ore. Most of the other funds are derivatives or equity based. As for currencies, I use ProShares DB ETF's, ProFunds rising/falling dollar etc.



Best of luck. Contact me if you have any questions. MDW

[cgnx]

So just because a few mortgage companies go bust it's the end of the world. Way dramatic. Remeber back a ways when we had that banking crisis? Some Savings and Loans went bust too. Another end of world scare. It passed just like it will again. I'm not saying it's over. More pain is likely. But get a grip man. Cash in the mattress sounds like an irrational fear to me.

[Tor]

Totally insane thinking right there.

Cmon, just imagine the dividend on gold shares when gold hits $10,000 an ounce. The idea that the stock market ceases to exist or that your ownership of a mining company would no longer be secure is to claim the end of civilization. Is your name Nostradamus?

How can u sya gold is going to $1000 an ounce??? It would be beyond all historical precident. Central banks have abandoned the gold standard. Money supply can be controlled by agreement but there is no need to return to the gold standard per se.

[cgnx]

Who needs a gold standard? Is there a Honus Wagner Baseball card standard or a Monet or Van Gogh standard? Gold isn't backing anything right now but it still sells for over $600. Why? Gold dogma is bunk. Gold is the real deal. A true element. A finite substance purchased with infinite paper. How many worthless pieces of paper should a rare precious metal be worth? I would have to say it should take alot more paper than it ever took before and by a multiple many times imaginable.