12 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

I do not think that "Juice" is out since many are sitting in cash.

I hope you will be selling when that "Juice" runs out in about 40 points, the last time frame the market recovered this much destruction was measured with months, not weeks or even days. This is a very left translated 20 wk cycle with rapidly depleting buying power and it will probably peak 1/3 of the way, or in about 2-3 weeks max. The credit growth just turned down again 2 weeks ago and actually cooling down faster, no LT bottom until the middle of summer, imho. Hope for a trading range at best!

Commented on the "Double Top" scenario when markets made "double bottom" call. I will reassess market at that time and will be posting my thoughts.

Edited by Trend-Signals, 02 April 2007 - 02:14 PM.

[airedale88]

kisa, while it may turn out to be a left translated 20 wk cycle there's no way that is a certainty right now.

[arbman]

kisa, while it may turn out to be a left translated 20 wk cycle there's no way that is a certainty right now.

I have enormous respect for you and everyone who are making an effort to predict this, but the most important clue for me is the huge overweighting in the defensive and non-growth issues from the lows. No sustainable LT rally starts this way, there is quite a bit liquidity and it manages not to crash, but there are very few examples that lasted a bit --yet ended pretty bad actually...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 02 April 2007 - 04:48 PM.