5 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

getting confirmations on the nominal 10 wk cycle price projections.

here's the NYSE Comp. of course, if a tsunami or 5.9er hits wall street all bets are off.

if not, the chart is self explanatory.......

[airedale88]

and, buy signal from the march low remains on and has strengthened.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p87589484047&r=4752.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p50966274753&r=4472.png

[n83]

getting confirmations on the nominal 10 wk cycle price projections.

here's the NYSE Comp. of course, if a tsunami or 5.9er hits wall street all bets are off.

if not, the chart is self explanatory.......

actually a tsnuami of the 2/27 variety is something one should be more concerned about (if at all)..which could not be foreseen-g

[airedale88]

and, buy signal from the march low remains on and has strengthened.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p87589484047&r=4752.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p50966274753&r=4472.png

on march 22nd i posted..."by the middle of next week those envelopes (based on a 21 day simple mv.avg.) will turn back up, unless the market goes to hell real quick ( zero probability IMHO). by the end of next week, the market will be in the area for a crossing of the cycle projection line on the other chart. that may be the point when a resumption of the uptrend starts. it's also the area for a nominal 2.5 wk cycle low to bottom and turn up."............



take it to the bank.

[n83]

and, buy signal from the march low remains on and has strengthened.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p87589484047&r=4752.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p50966274753&r=4472.png

on march 22nd i posted..."by the middle of next week those envelopes (based on a 21 day simple mv.avg.) will turn back up, unless the market goes to hell real quick ( zero probability IMHO). by the end of next week, the market will be in the area for a crossing of the cycle projection line on the other chart. that may be the point when a resumption of the uptrend starts. it's also the area for a nominal 2.5 wk cycle low to bottom and turn up."............



take it to the bank.

my point is why was the 2/27 tsunami not foreseen?

on another thread i tried to jest about "fundamental factors/fears" being singled out for the drop..so what about run ups? not fundamental news? hopes? or for an analog of fear..greed?

so what is the biggie if the cycle projections follow the lterm spx % rise y/y q/q?

[Echo]

n83, Aire doesn't have a crystal ball, though it may seem like it at times. Hurst analysis is based on price movements and uses principles of commonality, cyclicality, harmonicity, proportionality, summation, synchronicity, nominality, variability, etc to pattern price movements and guide trading. Like any other tool, there is probability involved, not certainty. Major fundamental events that occur can suddenly increase AMPLITUDE without afffecting cyclical lows. Hurst methods cannot foresee these major fundamental events. Protracted fundamental events can create pseudotrends, eg bubbles. Fortuately, it only occurs about 2% of the time. The rest is more peaceful, smoother sailing. Echo