17 replies to this topic

[arbman]

Perhaps this is the tax return money coming into the markets now, seasonally, early April is usually favorable after a March sell off and the market is still within the 6 days of strength. The volume momentum was to the upside for the past few days. The most coiled SMH issues are still the underperformers within the NDX, the best performing issues are the internet and non-tech components, but it sure is a good rally today... SB, I noticed it too, so far the volume is a short of the March 21th, it would need a major news to match that volume and A/D ratios etc. The key here is to remember that the selling is weak though...

[SemiBizz]

And, a bullish spring is setting up HERE: however, volume needs to be watched it is early in the day...



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[airedale88]

cycles kisa. uptrend off a 20 wk cycle low that had exaggerated downside amplitude due to some fundamental news/fears.

[kc135a]

The "Surge" day lows have been tested on lighter volume (bullish spring setup), all we are doing now is going back to test the high (44.48) and give it up on light volume (bearish upthrust).

Shssssh

Bear thoughts are not allowed.

KC

[arbman]

cycles kisa. uptrend off a 20 wk cycle low that had exaggerated downside amplitude due to some fundamental news/fears.

Airedale, I am looking at the implied volatilities and they are telling me that this is not an one-way up rally, I think it either pulls back again or that's it for this rally. It is interesting and what you said might be true (about fundamental scare), instead of the utilities catching up with the other sectors on the way down, they are catching up with the utilities on the way up, but the energy is also turning around. So, I have this feeling that this is still an inflationary blow off (left translation). I will short very little, I had a few longs into this morning, I trade only, no big directional positions formed yet...

[n83]

"exaggerated downside amplitude due to some fundamental news/fears" and "exaggerated upside amplitude due to some hopes/greed" the 2nd one is never quoted-gg

[airedale88]

"exaggerated downside amplitude due to some fundamental news/fears"

and

"exaggerated upside amplitude due to some hopes/greed"

the 2nd one is never quoted-gg

n83,

just as cyclic lows are nests of cycle lows and cyclic tops cannot be nests of cyclic highs, fundamental effect works differently during cyclic declines vs advances. increased amplitude can show in cyclic uptrends, the sudden jump due to events will be slightly muted as the different harmonic cycles are topping at different times. sustained fundamental effect becomes what hurst called pseudo trend (ie;non cyclic trend), amplitude increase in all length cycles. last upside example of that was the "bubble".

Hurst devotes a good bit of time in his course work to understanding fundamental effect. you'd have to know his work to understand the concepts.

[Echo]

Another good example was last July. Off the June lows we had the rally off the 20wk lows powering up with Breadth thrusts, Zweig 90% up volume days and then fell back into the July lows with the war in Lebanon. That sharp drop due to fundamental events was met with just as sharp a recovery in August exactly after the cease fire was approved on Friday. I remember Aire pointing out back then that the recovery from a cycle straddle can be as sharp as the drop into it. That's what V-bottoms are made of. Anyone remember the Apr 2001 low? Echo