12 replies to this topic

[relax]

Hi Guys, My first post here, writing from Denmark, Europe First I have a question regarding the Armstrong Business Cycle, which indicates major turning points. I assume that every turning point is in an alternating direction? That is we just had a turning point which turned out to be a top, does that mean the next turning point (scheduled for march 2008) has to be a bottom? or is march 2008 simply a turning point Thanks for any answers about his cycle! The most interesting thing for us right now is how Germany has pulled away and broken out to new highs for the year, a great indicator for the German DAX was that the weekly Bollinger with a 24 week MA never closed below the lower band that was also the case back in May 2006 when it only turned out to be a correction I'll be looking at the lower band for Bollinger with 24 day MA, if we enter a global bear trend Right now I'm somewhat confused at the fact that Germany just made new highs IF S&P makes a new low at 1.300-25, the german market and several other european markets will only make to the lows of march Something big has to happen right now in the USA - Fibonacci resistance for S&P around 1.440 and for Nasdaq Composite at 2.555. So something needs to happen to pull it away from resistance or over it? I have to admit i am somewhat bearish - data coming out of the US has not been good and there's not much to look forward to - GDP growth in Q1 below 2 per cent, inflation still remaining high and oil going up today is really all about making the right bet - i made a bearish bet - and can't be bullish on the US markedet before S&P breaks 1.440 I of course look at the Danish market - what do you guys care about that market - nonetheless the truth may be found the strangest places - the danish market has an elliot wave pattern which indicates an upside of 15 per cent (donøt know how to paste charts - but will find out) This makes be think that we may still se new year highs for the US - and then the real meltdown (after two warning in maj 2006 and february 2007) will come in september Well i'm thinking as i'm writing - have to get back to the market - nice trading ;-)

[da_cheif]

here is apost about armstrong from dr tom deousxous on ww...



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Category: General Interest
From: deuxsous (Tom Drake)
To: ALL
Date Posted: January 05, 2007 at 21:47:42
Subject: Benner and Armstrong




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down der they were talking up marty armstrong as some kind of martyr...lol... he made his first bucks as a coin dealer (read: wide b/a spread in illiquid stuff bought by people who don't know the field). then he started an "institute" near enough to princeton NJ so he could use the name of princeton in his bidness name. he wrote expensive but beautiful nonsense market analyses and gave high priced seminarz attended by the starz and dummeez. then he decided to sell special bondz in japan where he had a big office for the nonsenz bidness...
some big japoneez lost some big bucks with marty, as was predictable, and decided to call his bluff. marty refused to produce evidence requested in court in the gawdin state and went to jail on a contempt charge where he has been for yearz. he had many opportunities to comply with court requests and turned them all down.

one of his claims to fame was the famous 8.6 year CONfidenz cycle which actually came from an ohio farmer by the name of benner, in the 19th century. marty originally had copies of a chart on his website (now defunct) identical to benner's which he cited as the origin of his own CONfidenz cycle. the chart was found in a desk drawer in philly in the 1930's. (i kid you not!) but then it miraculously disappeared and only marty's cycle remained. (there are people who have the complete original site in replication.) actually benner's chart was produced also in early (maybe later too?) editions of frost's and prechter's elliott book classic.

several years ago a poster at another site compared the benner and marty charts, and a german lady reproduced an updated benner chart and posted it.

rumor is that marty is finally going to come clean or whatever it takes to get out from under contempt of court. if he is relatively clean after that (hu noze), he is going to come on like gangbusters to make up for all the money he lost while in stir. hey! wouldn't you? just thought i'd warn yas.
http://members.cox.n...cs/bennerts.gif

[Russ]

Tom Drake is a first class hack. Armstrong discovered the cycle by adding up all the panics in centuries past and dividing the sample time taken by the number of panics. Armstrong's Pi Cycle 3142 days X 1000 has statistical accuracy into the billions and the last top on Feb.20 which produced a panic right on his long stated date of Feb.27 was right on cue. Enough so to keep dacheif long and "looking to the sky". Benner's cycle only gives years for dates, Armstrong's cycle gives dates to the day. The CIA and Chinese government did not approach Armstrong in 1998 to aquire his 32,000 variable supercomputer model for no reason. In the early 1990's he predicted the dow would hit 6000 by 1996 and then later in the mid 1999's said it would hit 10,000 by 1998. After his model called the high on july 20,1998 and Armstrong made a killing shorting several thousand contracts of futures on it the CIA showed up at the door according to Princeton employee James Smith. He was named North America's top economist by Equity Mag. in 1990. Go to my weblog link below and read more about him.

[Russ]

Above should state mid 1990's not mid 1999's.

[relax]

Great story about CIA showing up at his place. I'll be checking the link later ;-)

[timer]

Good posts, Russ. I might add that Marty predicted the 1987 crash the prior weekend in one of his seminars, as I've been told by another source.

[da_cheif]

Good posts, Russ. I might add that Marty predicted the 1987 crash the prior weekend in one of his seminars, as I've been told by another source.

and within hours of the low i mite add.......so did prechter predict the 87 crash.....within hours of the low.......

calling for the crash from the day of the august top ...months before the crash .....now that takes someone with mo smartz dontchu think??????

[Russ]

That's not exactly the whole story cheif, Armstrong's model showed the low in the crash of 87 to the day. His model was created in the 1970's. The same model predicted the top and crash off of it in both the july 20, 1998 and Feb. 26-27 , 2007 dates, decades before they happened. This cycle can predict events decades or even centuries before they happen to the day.

Good posts, Russ. I might add that Marty predicted the 1987 crash the prior weekend in one of his seminars, as I've been told by another source.

and within hours of the low i mite add.......so did prechter predict the 87 crash.....within hours of the low.......

calling for the crash from the day of the august top ...months before the crash .....now that takes someone with mo smartz dontchu think??????

[da_cheif]

check the model........it called all kinds of crashes.....like a stopped clock......sometimes there was a hiccup.....sometimes there wasnt.....if you hadnt noticed.....there have been thousands of "crashes".......:>).......of course...it wasnt his model to begin with......armstrong wasa teif......blaming the judge for his incarceration is typical of those who have no independent thought........

Edited by da_cheif, 04 April 2007 - 12:15 PM.

[Russ]

As I stated above look at the extreme ranges of the model, 1985 saw the low in the British Pound to the dollar, 1989 saw the high in the Nikkei, the 1994.25 saw the low in the spx to the day, 1998.55 saw the high in the spx to the day, 2002.85 (nov 8) saw the general low in the us markets - (this was a major turn predicted by Armstrong many years earlier and he also stated that commodity markets would turn up around this cycle date and go up into 2007 with a possible extention into 2012) 2007.15 ...we just saw the results of that one. In late 1996 at a seminar he predicted that oil would go to a minimum of $65 a barrel.

Interpreting the pi cycle can be tricky as to what to expect, even Armstrong did not always see it exactly right, but there is no denying that this cycle is highly significant. This is just the 8.6 cycle, his computer model had other things in it that just the 8.6. It is an international capital model that shows where capital is moving to internationally.

It is his model, Benner's cycle is totally different.

check the model........it called all kinds of crashes.....like a stopped clock......sometimes there was a hiccup.....sometimes there wasnt.....if you hadnt noticed.....there have been thousands of "crashes".......:>).......of course...it wasnt his model to begin with......armstrong wasa teif......blaming the judge for his incarceration is typical of those who have no independent thought........