After Market Close April 4, 2007 |
The Holiday is Upon Us
And we can pretty much expect trading to go dead unless something dramatic happens. Of course, this wouldn't differ much from yesterday, except that our picks largely did pretty well.
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DJIA: As noted, the Dow was pretty flat. |
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SPX: I kept thinking that my quote system went down yesterday, but it only LOOKED like they weren't updating quotes. |
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NDX: The Naz looked a lot like the rest of the indices, and it's got some resistance above, but it ought to "jump the creek" as they say, soon. |
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RUT: Hmmm, the Russell may be giving us a warning. Money appears to be coming out of the smaller stocks, suddenly. |
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HUI: Whoa! The miners suddenly look like they want to bust out. Of course, they've failed here before... |
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MHS: Medco tried to run, but pulled back. Use caution here. |
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OI: Owens Ill just keeps on truckin'. |
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KG: King ground out a nice gain for us too. |
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JRCC: James River put in a surprising rally for us. I'm very pleased with our Chartist's picks this week. |
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KNOL: Well, finally we get a very good example of why I instituted a 30 minute rule on the stops. We are out at a dandy profit. Funny how they just touched our stop at 9:32 and closed at our target at 4:00. Strange coincidence? |
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BONT: Bon Ton is suddenly showing weakness...as are my knees after looking at that graphic! Such Bon Ton Pom-Pom's I could do without! |
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PGTI: PGT tried to get us, but failed. That's at least a tad Bearish. |
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TPX: Tempur Pedic continues to test. It really needs to start down soon, as we're running out of room. The pattern, despite the rally, is not Bullish. Late-comers could actually short a bit higher on a break of the new trend line. |
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EVC: Entravision tacks on another gain for us. |
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DE: Deere is back in the pattern and I'm a tad concerned. Still, not much damage done... |
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ROL: Rollins pulls back into the wedge. Try again. |
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ASD: I'm very OK with an American Standard short. |
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ORCL: Oracle looks pretty powerful in here. We own this one in some family and managed accounts and will accumulate more on weakness. |
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AL: Alcan just looks fairly strong and is probably a nice buy on global demand. |
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IOC: Interoil needed a follow up. Nice yo-yo pick. |
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Summary:
So, expect some thin, flat trading. I suspect that Wall Street will be a veritable grave yard by 2:00 pm. We're positioned for about any happenstance, just in case, but I really don't expect anything to happen until Monday. If there's bad news, we're well-hedged.
Be Well, and Trade Smarter Than the Average Bear!
-The ChartSmarts Team
Current Positions:
Long 50% MHS at 69.47, stop at 72.22
Long 50% OI at 24.09, stop at 26.03
Long 50% KG at 18.94, stop at 19.34
Long 50% JRCC at 7.57, stop at 7.57
Short 50% BONT at 55.21, stop at 57.91
Short 50% PGTI at 12.31, stop at 12.31
Short 50% TPX at 25.93, stop at 27.31
Long 50% EVC at 9.29, stop at 9.29
Short 50% DE at 104.8, stop at 109.12
Watch List:
ROL: Buy 50% on a print of 23.31, stop at 22.64
ASD: Short 50% on a print of 52.51, stop at 54.68
Changes in Current Positions:
Move the stop up on MHS to 72.22
Move the stop up on OI to 26.03
Move the stop up on JRCC to breakeven 7.57
Target reached on KNOL at 16.34. We are gone. (+10.10%)
Move the stop up on EVC to breakeven 9.29
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*30 Minute Trading Rule:
In order to prevent whipsaws, we use a 30 minute trading rule. This means that, as a general rule, we are going to "sit on our hands" during the first 30 minutes of trading, this includes the lifting of stops during this 30 minute period as well. Additionally, if after the first 30 minutes of trading the range of the stock pick is within the stop and buy/short boundaries presented, the trade recommendation is valid. If the stock's range is outside of the buy/short and stop boundry, the trade recommendation is VOID. E.g. if the recommendation is "Buy a print of 10.25, with a stop of 9.95," and the stop trades up to 10.50 during the first 30 minutes, we would pass on the trade. Similarly, if that stock were to trade down to 9.90 before 10:00, the trade would also be void.
There is no 30mn rule on limit orders, but if price gaps out of the buy/stop range the trade is void.
Rule on stops:
Effective immediately, as a general rule for the model portfolio, we will lift all stops on existing positions for the first 30 minutes of trading. As a practical matter, subscribers may wish to leave their stops in place if they expect to be incommunicado or unavailable during that time to monitor positions.
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