treasury bond bulls - get ready for another spectacular buying opportunity
Started by
greenie
, Apr 05 2007 02:41 PM
8 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 05 April 2007 - 02:41 PM
There are two sides of the bond market - bond bulls and bond fools. If you really want to learn what a wall of worry looks like, just read what the bond fools say. Latest 'wall of worry' is 'Chinese and Saudis are going to dump their treasuries' -
http://www.safehaven...rticle-7302.htm
which, by the way, has been the wall of worry in 2006, 2005, 2004 and 2003. Add 'Japanese are going to dump their treasuries' and the wall of worry goes back to 1990.
Only those who have no clue about the markets and the economy would continue to think that way, even after they were proven wrong for >15 years.
In the meanwhile,
http://www.safehaven...rticle-7302.htm
which, by the way, has been the wall of worry in 2006, 2005, 2004 and 2003. Add 'Japanese are going to dump their treasuries' and the wall of worry goes back to 1990.
Only those who have no clue about the markets and the economy would continue to think that way, even after they were proven wrong for >15 years.
In the meanwhile,
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#2
Posted 05 April 2007 - 04:05 PM
vitaminm
#3
Posted 05 April 2007 - 04:22 PM
A minor and indirectly related point: Did you notice the Russell 2000 futures sell-off in the last few minutes of today's session? Somebody expects a weak employment report. Tomorrow may mark a long lasting turn in the relative performance of R-2000 versus the S&P 500. Buy ES and sell RUT --- the trade might work until the end of the summer.
#4
Posted 05 April 2007 - 08:17 PM
Greenie,
That chart looks bearish.
#5
Posted 05 April 2007 - 08:59 PM
Greenie,
That chart looks bearish.
Apparently, he is making the call based on economic fundamentals, not based on the technicals.
#6
Posted 05 April 2007 - 09:42 PM
PIMCO is pulling out all the stops -- pounding the table, rolling on the floor kicking and screaming -- demanding a rate cut. I have watched them for years and I have never seen a performance like this. By their own admission, they are heavily invested in the short end of the curve -- so they are talking their book. Nonetheless, they are very influential and generally a poor fade in the fixed income sector. I would not want to be long the 30-year at this level if the Fed starts leaning toward an ease.
PIMCO: 3% inflation = no biggie
PIMCO: 3% inflation = no biggie
Da nile is more than a river in Egypt.
#7
Posted 05 April 2007 - 09:55 PM
[quote name='vitaminm' post='281114' date='Apr 5 2007, 03:05 PM']
TLT/waiting for green light
http://finance.yahoo... ^GSP...0&a=&c=
TLT/waiting for green light
http://finance.yahoo... ^GSP...0&a=&c=
Edited by vitaminm, 05 April 2007 - 10:00 PM.
vitaminm
#9
Posted 06 April 2007 - 07:00 AM
just for info
the Chinese Yuan has risen about 3.5% against the US$ in the last 12 months
that's potentially 3.5% of imported price inflation
http://finance.yahoo...;submit=Convert
the Chinese Yuan has risen about 3.5% against the US$ in the last 12 months
that's potentially 3.5% of imported price inflation
http://finance.yahoo...;submit=Convert