Thanks for comments. I agree that 55 area is major for sure. I also agree that it is the major point to break for this stock to turn the tide. Well actually I guess doubling off the botom doesn't hurt.
It seems most people always want to break levels such as this before they would go long. From my experience it is more profitable to go long with half a position now becuase you will have decent gains already and a nice cushion when we get to the major resistance point. If we then break thru the major resistance, the consolidation usually occurs on top of that or retraces to it which gives a green light on the second half to be put in.
Over the years I have seen people wait for complete confirmation etc. over break out points but I till this day do not understand why they would rather go long at a higher price...say 5% higher (bad with quick poker math). I think that when I am wrong at the major resistance level and the stock gets rejected, I can easily get out with no losses.
On the other end, I think most people who wait for a breakout above 55 area will end up missing the pre-market type jam that ends up getting them in at say 57 or so. Then they leave themselves with a chance of a losing position to 55 so would actually have losses but still be happy with their purchase.
I think other people look at the stock at say 57 and simply hope it comes down to 55 so they can pull off a Jessie Livermore buy signal. It seems to me that this is very difficult to do sometimes (perfect timing) and the pre-market jams the stock at 7 am central before most even wake up. So their buy signal happens pre-market and they miss it anyways.
There is just something about the risk reward setup that makes me feel it is a better strategy (from my experience) to go long with a partial position. If I am wrong I can get out with small losses. If I am right I will be up 5% or so when taking on a major breakout point so there is nothing but excitement to look forward to. It is almost like a free shot. When I am right this accounts for large homeruns, especially if it is much higher beta stock.
Thats my take at least. Since I look for long term positions etc. so I can put things on cruise control, I like to eliminate as much risk as possible per the reward. This leads many times to my performance being alot higher than other traders on a statistical basis when watching the same stock and planning a strategy in general.
You can see from my MU trade that it appears I was wrong in my judgement hoping for a large breakout from almost a low print. Because I had the entry I did, if it starts down monday and I dive out I will have not even taken any losses hardly. I hate having to let it go if it gets cranked because I feel a bottom is near and a needle bottom turn around may be in order here. I hate being stopped out and missing major bottoms but stats say tough luck and I get out anyways to live to fight another day.
What is your opinion on this? Does it seem logical? I have worked different strategies for years and I seem to have much better luck with this.
I have to go but will be looking at NVDA tomorrow. I read your posts and the chart sure is at a critical point. I can say that on this setup I would have to wait for a breakout then consolidation but I do not short much in bull markets which I have no reason to believe otherwise at this moment........swing trading I mean.....I seperate the day trading and especially the intraday trading.
Your QQQQ chart sure does point to a retrace it seems. Others have made it back to the smack down zone as well such as the SPX I think and IWM. Now if you look at the oils etc. they are at critical resistance areas as well. Basically, I don't see what momentum event etc. will push all these up from here but it would have to be a good one it seems or the market in general looks set for a retrace. I will be hedging bets and taking some momo profits monday for simple safety. I will probably hedge with QID. I pulled off my USO short but wish I would have waited. The currency relationship with that thing is confusing to me.
As per site, yes it is mie. I started it a few months ago to track performance etc. Trading is a lonely game and nobody ever believes I have a long term track record etc. I do not understand why people who trade real money do not do the same as me. I do not care if I am wrong. I do care about getting all the input I can before a trade. People over the years usually try to hope for a downfall unfortunately and think they win arguments when I am wrong but they are my best allies. They just don't realize it. I have went oer the top at times for the reason that people will spend alot of time trying to prove me wrong. I am wrong all the time is the thing. I just have discipline and have learned alot about risk/reward, poker and all that. Trading is poker to me and I do not like to lose. I am slightly addicted to the markets!
One more comment on MRK. As per a poker scenario, if you watch the pros, they "limp in" to the pots almost every single time when the risk is low and they are masters at numbers. The person with all the chips controls the table. They can statistically bully the table by going all in on every hand and squeeze out their opponents. They know that with their pot size leading so much that their opponents would have to repeatedly double up over and over many times before catching up with them. Assume the opponent would have to double up 7x's in a row to catch the leader. The leader knows that if they go all in 7x's in a row that they have a massive % chance...say 95%, of winning at least one of these hands. All it takes is one hand for them to win the match.
Da boyz trading gazillions for the GSTT(Golden Sacks Trading Team) who are any good at least, know that they have the upper hand every day of the week because they have massive pots to play with.
I appear to be slightly long winded...please excuse typing errors. I am watching some funky show on the sci-fi channel!!
I am going to have to post this on my site for trading strategies!
*also, did you read the oil and gas report...just scroll through the rants please!
Happy Easter!
*will not mention side line politics anymore....I am all about the oil so that stuff is impossible for me not to watch for poker reasons....will keep on da blog though. No harm intended for anyone for sure. Especially not to Mark etc. who I gain more respect for every day...
