1837: "A real estate boom, fueled by an aggressive expansion of credit, ended in disaster...American prosperity and inflation resulted in record trade deficits...foreigners were spending record sums buying U.S. stocks and bonds...led to the Depression of 1837-1841..."
1857: "Commodity price inflation, exploding energy demand, strength in industrial metals, a bull market in transportation stocks and excess foreign investment....led to a crash in those sectors by late 1857 in what is considered the first international financial panic."
1907: Dow declined 37%. Slowing economy, credit contraction, commodity/metals collapse.
1917: Dow declined 40%.
1926: Dow declined 17% from Feb-Apr.
1937: The post-1932 bull came crashing down amidst severe credit tightening by the Fed. The Dow lost 34% in less than three weeks. By March 1938, the S&P had lost 55% from its 1937 high. Steel stocks dropped 60-80%.
1946: Dow declined 24% from May-Oct.
1957: The Dow topped in July and dropped 22% by Oct. Metal stocks lost 50% or more.
1966: Dow declined 24% from Feb-Oct.
1976: Dow declined 27% from Sept 1976-Mar 1978. 1977 was straight down.
1987: The Dow declined 41% from Aug-Oct, culminating in a one-day Oct crash of -23%.
1997: The Dow declined 17% from Aug-Oct, culminating in a classic Oct panic when the Dow dropped 16% in three weeks.
http://wallstreetexa.../wheeler/?p=120
years ending in "7" market usual dip -17% or worse
Started by
deacon
, Apr 08 2007 06:18 PM
2 replies to this topic
#2
stocks
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- Traders-Talk User
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Posted 08 April 2007 - 07:18 PM
The decennial cycle for the year '7' Apr-June time period points straight up.
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Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#3
PorkLoin
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- TT Member*
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- 2,194 posts
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Posted 08 April 2007 - 08:39 PM
I like this stuff, but figure that by the time I'm aware of it, too many others are too to give me any edge in the market. There have been some wicked moves down into years ending in "7," to be sure, but all in all those years have presented great buying opportunities, even in the 1800s. I found this at wiley.com:
2005 was sideways to up a little for most indices. Not horrible but not the big performance many were looking for, based on past decennial patterns. I'd say there is "something" going on with such patterns, but also think they can be overwhelmed, easily, by current events. Wonder what will happen this year, with the "Sell in May and go away," deal and the seasonal period of weakness through October.
Best,
Doug
2005 was sideways to up a little for most indices. Not horrible but not the big performance many were looking for, based on past decennial patterns. I'd say there is "something" going on with such patterns, but also think they can be overwhelmed, easily, by current events. Wonder what will happen this year, with the "Sell in May and go away," deal and the seasonal period of weakness through October.
Best,
Doug
