1 reply to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I don't think so.

I note that on Selecto's SPX WEEKLY POLL, when the Bears exceed 60% they've been right more than they've been wrong.

Certainly, 7:6 isn't exactly a ratio that makes one want to make big bets, but it sure looks like we aren't a fade, or certainly not a great one.

This also jiibes with the position poll data at important lows--this crew tends to get positioned correctly almost exactly at the bottom. At least for a while.

Mark

[gm_general]

I thought someone here had shown a comment-related bull-bear chart, and it showed a reverse correlation. How to resolve that difference? I have observed at the extremes of comment sentiment that it is almost always a fade (really contarian indicator is less offensive than the "F" word!). This is just a rule of complex systems. Of course as you say 60% is not really extreme enough to mean anything.