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The Wilderhill Clean Energy Index is still range bound with the 200 area serving as aceiling.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Crude oil prices are still testing the $65 area.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) has moved above 200.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Amex Oil Index (XOI) is now testing its all time highs once again.
Technical Summary:
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Still Stock Specific
Wall street looks to be ready to jump in the early going as traders look to trade thestronger than expected employment report.
And the technicals support a continuation of the rally, although it is somewhat more tepidthan one would expect, although the recent correction did not run for very long, despiteits short term pain.
So a consensus of sorts seems to be emerging. The correction was shallow, thus, theensuing rally is not likely to be all that spectacular.
If that's the scnerio, then the key to success is selectivity, both in sectors, as well asin individual stocks.
For now, the strong groups remain energy, metals, and selected health care names, with thesmall to midcap areas of the market agin attracting some capital.
More than anything, it will be important to see if money coming out of the bond marketwill fuel a bigger rally in stocks.
From a longer term stand point, based on historical trends, this should be a positive yearfor stocks, given the fact that it's the third year of the Presidential Cycle, which callsfor rallies in the third and fourth years of a presidency.
Our long term forecast remains upbeat, unless the major indexes fall convincingly belowtheir 200 day moving averages.
What To Do Now
Continue to build positions in strong stocks. Remain careful about placing, monitoring,and adjusting sell stops. See our lists for ideas.
Visit all our individual sections, both our ETF and individual stock picks daily for newideas, and changes to open positions.
Be very methodical about monitoring portfolios, adhering to trading rules, and ratchetingup sell stops is clearly still here.
Second guessing decisions, and hoping that things will turn out o.k. in the long haul, isthe recipe for disaster at a time like this in the market.
Check all our sections daily. See tech, biotech, Fallen Angels, and timing systems forthe latest adjustments. Our ETF trading systems for energy, Spyders, Small Caps, andtechnology have also been updated.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Sentiment Summary:
Little Fear Prior To Employment Report
Traders went into the employment report with little fear last week.
The CBOE Put/Call ratio checked in at 0.77 on 4-5. A consistent string of low readings canbe a sign of excessive optimism and often signals a top in the markets. Readings below 0.5are of concern, but not as serious as readings below 0.40. Readings above 1.0 are bullish.The numbers cited here are meant to be evaluated on a closing basis.
The CBOE P/C ratio for indexes checked in at 1.29. Numbers above 2.0 as the market sellsoff, often lead to rallies. Readings below 0.9 suggest too much bullish sentiment, just asreadings above 2 are usually required to mark major bottoms.
The VIX and VXN had readings of 15.14 and 18.53. These readings are starting againstarting to rise. A fall near or below 20 on VIX and 30-40 on VXN is considered negative,a fact that is usually confirmed when the volatility indexes begin to rise. Readings above40 and 50, respectively, are often signs that a bottom may be close to developing.
NYSE specialists were buyers of stock in the week ending 3-23, reversing a three weekselling spree and also showing that the insiders were buying at the market's bottom on3-21. This is a positive. At that time the market was starting to weaken. We'll see ofthis improves over the next couple of weeks. Specialist short selling remained at very lowlevels, though. Rising short selling from specialists is usually a very bearish sign.
Market Vane's Bullish Consensus was at 71% on 4-5 again giving a sell signal. The UBSsentiment index fell to 78 in March after registering a reading of 103, a downright scarynumber, and the highest one we've seen in January.
Market Moves
Schlumberger Near Top Of Key Range
Oil service giant Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) is a leader in the Philadelphia Oil ServiceIndex (OSX).
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Schlumberger lost its way in the late 1990s, trying to become a semiconductor company. Butsince it has concentrated on oil service, and applied technology, via its IT branch, thecompany has done a lot better.
The stock is selling at 15 times forward earnings and is expected to deliver above 50%earnings improvement for its quarter ending in March.
The charts suggest that money is moving in, although the area near 75 is tough resistance.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Amex Biotech Index (BTK) is now challenging the 800 area and is showing somesignificant strength.
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The Amex Pharmaceuticals Index (DRG) again seems to have bottomed near 340.
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The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is showing some weakness.
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Small stocks are showing some relative strength.
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