3 replies to this topic

[NAV]

http://nav-ta.blogsp...ind-of-top.html

[arbman]

NAV, if this swing lower "fixes" the leadership to the financials, cyclicals and tech with a mild participation from the industrials (for now) instead of the energy and utilities that we have seen from the lows, I will be a believer of a further IT uptrend too... But this calls for a decline to the March lows at a minimum, imho, this is kind of unlikely with the 20 wk cycle low already behind us. It is not impossible though since this is exactly what happened last July and we had the strong rally from August... I am trying to be flexible, but the current structure kind of tells me that this is a left translated 20 wk cycle and it is likely to head generally lower until the summer lows with more topping action in April perhaps due to the upside momentum so far. If I had to pick a similar situation, I would probably pick something in between April 2004 and March 2005... Good luck, - kisa

[NAV]

NAV, if this swing lower "fixes" the leadership to the financials, cyclicals and tech with a mild participation from the industrials (for now) instead of the energy and utilities that we have seen from the lows, I will be a believer of a further IT uptrend too...

But this calls for a decline to the March lows at a minimum, imho, this is kind of unlikely with the 20 wk cycle low already behind us. It is not impossible though since this is exactly what happened last July and we had the strong rally from August...

I am trying to be flexible, but the current structure kind of tells me that this is a left translated 20 wk cycle and it is likely to head generally lower until the summer lows with more topping action in April perhaps due to the upside momentum so far. If I had to pick a similar situation, I would probably pick something in between April 2004 and March 2005...

Good luck,
- kisa

Kisa,

I do not have a clue whether the coming swing low would fix the leadership issue. But we could just grind up slowly, without leadership into the 20 week cycle top. From a e-wave perspective, if we are in a wave B, it should take another 15-18 trading days before we can start looking for an important top. That would put us somewhere in early May for an important top. Until then, all these declines can generate a couple of days of bearish excitement at best. The nimble bears make some money and the stubborn one's keep getting squeezed.

[arbman]

I agree, I am also looking for a good top around later this month or early May. The indices will probably continue to frustrate up and down. I trade the leadership stocks long for now and go generally short the indices. I am more short than long at the moment though...