16 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

a minor nominal 6/7 day cycle due to bottom tuesday ideally. i then expect we have a couple day rally before the next nominal 5 wk cycle low due next monday+/- a day. we may see tests or new highs before that 5 wk low, if not we will afterwards. that might be a little clearer after this 6/7 day cycle bottoms.

[eminimee]

Airedale, question for you.... ..The 4.5 year cycle low you are expecting late summer.....in the bigger picture involving the bigger and more powerful cycles, would you entertain the idea that the dip and subsequent rise out of that low as a mid channel pause from the move out of the Oct 02 bottom? Here's hoping that doesn't sound like a rediculous question.

[airedale88]

Airedale, question for you....
..The 4.5 year cycle low you are expecting late summer.....in the bigger picture involving the bigger and more powerful cycles, would you entertain the idea that the dip and subsequent rise out of that low as a mid channel pause from the move out of the Oct 02 bottom?
Here's hoping that doesn't sound like a rediculous question.

tea, yes, it will be a midchannel pause from the march 03 bottom for the nominal 18 yr cycle..

the oct 02 low was NOT a major cycle low, though it appears that way visually on some indexes. there were left translated highs after oct 02, something that should not occur if it was a true 4 or 4.5 yr low.

[Russ]

the oct 02 low was NOT a major cycle low, though it appears that way visually on some indexes. there were left translated highs after oct 02, something that should not occur if it was a true 4 or 4.5 yr low.

Oct. 2002 was a major 8.6 year pi cycle low and the major indexes produced lows then, spx, dow, nyse(the biggest index out there) and the value line geometric which is supposed to show 'what the average stock is doing'. How much more major can you get?

What do you mean by left translated highs after oct. 02?

http://bigcharts.mar...1&rand=5000.png

Russ

Edited by Russ, 10 April 2007 - 07:57 AM.

[eminimee]

Thanks Airedale......this is what gave me the idea to ask.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-06-01&i=p67141354882&a=84025986&r=4337.png

[airedale88]

the oct 02 low was NOT a major cycle low, though it appears that way visually on some indexes. there were left translated highs after oct 02, something that should not occur if it was a true 4 or 4.5 yr low.

Oct. 2002 was a major 8.6 year pi cycle low and the major indexes produced lows then, spx, dow, nyse(the biggest index out there) and the value line geometric which is supposed to show 'what the average stock is doing'. How much more major can you get?

What do you mean by left translated highs after oct. 02?

http://bigcharts.mar...1&rand=5000.png

Russ

russ, look at your NYSE chart from oct 02 to march 03 examine the time from the oct low to the intervening high. then examine the time from that high to the march low. that's a left translated high, the market between oct 02 and march 03 spent more time going down than up, peaking early in the time period. had oct 02 been a major low, any intervening peak would have been right translated, the peak coming closer in time to march. basic cycle theory, even for those not familiar with Hurst's body of work.

[Cirrus]

Airedale... You're posts and time on the board are much appreciated. Thanks again.

[Russ]

russ, look at your NYSE chart from oct 02 to march 03 examine the time from the oct low to the intervening high. then examine the time from that high to the march low. that's a left translated high, the market between oct 02 and march 03 spent more time going down than up, peaking early in the time period. had oct 02 been a major low, any intervening peak would have been right translated, the peak coming closer in time to march. basic cycle theory, even for those not familiar with Hurst's body of work.

Thanks for your explanation Aire, I understand the cycle theory that you have explained but from another perspective the first low was the real low and the march low was just a retest.

Martin Armstrong was also the Chairman of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, which as far as I know is the most serious cycle group out there. His model called for the markets to bottom on Nov.8, 2002 which came pretty close to the Oct. low. His model actually allows for a few days (I don't remember the actual number) variation from the actual predicted date.

[airedale88]

russ, look at your NYSE chart from oct 02 to march 03 examine the time from the oct low to the intervening high. then examine the time from that high to the march low. that's a left translated high, the market between oct 02 and march 03 spent more time going down than up, peaking early in the time period. had oct 02 been a major low, any intervening peak would have been right translated, the peak coming closer in time to march. basic cycle theory, even for those not familiar with Hurst's body of work.

Thanks for your explanation Aire, I understand the cycle theory that you have explained but from another perspective the first low was the real low and the march low was just a retest.

Martin Armstrong was also the Chairman of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, which as far as I know is the most serious cycle group out there. His model called for the markets to bottom on Nov.8, 2002 which came pretty close to the Oct. low. His model actually allows for a few days (I don't remember the actual number) variation from the actual predicted date.

russ, prechter was also the head of the foundation for a while so maybe marty should not list that on any resume.



question for you. as time permits, been reading your blog on armstrong. i saw a quote from him that his model called the low in 1987. did it call the top too? can you point to any info on that? thanks.

[KCScott]

Airedale, question for you....
..The 4.5 year cycle low you are expecting late summer.....in the bigger picture involving the bigger and more powerful cycles, would you entertain the idea that the dip and subsequent rise out of that low as a mid channel pause from the move out of the Oct 02 bottom?
Here's hoping that doesn't sound like a rediculous question.

tea, yes, it will be a midchannel pause from the march 03 bottom for the nominal 18 yr cycle..

the oct 02 low was NOT a major cycle low, though it appears that way visually on some indexes. there were left translated highs after oct 02, something that should not occur if it was a true 4 or 4.5 yr low.

Dale,

I didn't see your post calling for a 4.5 cycle low this summer.
If you would, please link or update this thread with that forecast.

Watching your FF here, you seem to be right on with the majority of your calls.

It is appreciated.

Best Regards,

Scott in KC