15 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

I stated that "4yr low in Jun-Jul 2006 bottom" with the Oct 02 low as "8"yr cycle low during JUn-Jul 2006 bottom call market analyses.

Now, I am revisiting the call.

Could you tell me what your opinions are on the 4yr cycle low in Jun-Jul 2006?

Thanks in advance for your comments.

http://www.traders-t...l=trend-Signals
I need to upload the chart analysis with cycles and TL notations which posted. Those are not uploaded as you see the charts do not show on the above link...


PS. I don't follow any specific model such as Armstrong or Alexander, also, I do not micro-manage small cycles for my market timing; however, I stated that I will start to comment on cycle in a couple of months since I am moving and traveling during Apr-May.

Do appreciate other well known cycle comments and books, of course, since those are certainly helping our studies of markets.

Edited by Trend-Signals, 10 April 2007 - 10:17 AM.

[Trend-Signals]

I stated that "4yr low in Jun-Jul 2006 bottom" with the Oct 02 low as "8"yr cycle low during JUn-Jul 2006 bottom call market analyses.

Now, I am revisiting the call.

Could you tell me what your opinions are on the 4yr cycle low in Jun-Jul 2006?

Thanks in advance for your comments.

http://www.traders-t...l=trend-Signals
I need to upload the chart analysis with cycles and TL notations which posted. Those are not uploaded as you see the charts do not show on the above link...


PS. I don't follow any specific model such as Armstrong or Alexander, also, I do not micro-manage small cycles for my market timing; however, I stated that I will start to comment on cycle in a couple of months since I am moving and traveling during Apr-May.

Do appreciate other well known cycle comments and books, of course, since those are certainly helping our studies of markets.

For VST - ST, DOW-SPX-NASDAQ are trading at resistances as noted below.

The important question is whether 2/27/07 was the major LT Top.

While I am seeing double top formations with falling hammers at the moment, I do not think that 2/27/07 is the top for major LT/ST top.




Date:4/9/2007 9:50:01 PM
Post #of 170

Market consolidated in a narrow range after fading the morning gap, as noted on Friday comment, and traded in light volume. It retrieved from the resistances as shown on 60m charts. Intraday price actions are still showing negative divergences which need to be worked out.

SPX traded to SPX 1448 and Qs to 44.75 as the intraday highs closing the Qs gap; however, Nasdaq intraday high, 1478.68 is minor congest resistance, filling half of the Feb gap.

Qs 44.75 and Nasdaq 1478.68 intra highs are weekly TL resistances.

Price formations, falling hammers, on DOW and SPX, signaling a caution for vst pull back; also, selling into close is signaling a caution.

Market action wasn't as strong as I anticipated as we saw that market was trading in low volume.

We have Alcoa earning report tomorrow, so the AA earning report could be a catalyst for market to generate more volume actions.

http://www.stockchar...09398&r=598.png

http://www.stockchar...77535&r=859.png

http://www.stockchar...40300&r=617.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&i=p73797548221&a=79285156&r=517.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22648394504&a=76929034&r=579.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&i=p49229126946&a=78987374&r=825.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p31631774778&a=76966992&r=329.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p63151936612&a=76929550&r=145.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p21609042622&a=76909044&r=764.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 10 April 2007 - 10:52 AM.

[mdwllc]

Trend Signals: With the 18 year cycle, there are usually three to five 4 year cycles. [The beginning 4 year cycle is always bullish]. The first low of this beginning cycle was due between Oct 2005 to June 2007. Because of the high earlier this year, I am not convinced that the low is in yet. Therefore, I am anticipating a very sharp decline that ends before June 30th. At that point, the second 4 year cycle should begin....MDW

[Trend-Signals]

Trend Signals: With the 18 year cycle, there are usually three to five 4 year cycles. [The beginning 4 year cycle is always bullish]. The first low of this beginning cycle was due between Oct 2005 to June 2007. Because of the high earlier this year, I am not convinced that the low is in yet. Therefore, I am anticipating a very sharp decline that ends before June 30th. At that point, the second 4 year cycle should begin....MDW

Thanks MDW


When did your 18yr cycle begin?

[mdwllc]

Trend Signals: With the 18 year cycle, there are usually three to five 4 year cycles. [The beginning 4 year cycle is always bullish]. The first low of this beginning cycle was due between Oct 2005 to June 2007. Because of the high earlier this year, I am not convinced that the low is in yet. Therefore, I am anticipating a very sharp decline that ends before June 30th. At that point, the second 4 year cycle should begin....MDW

Thanks MDW


When did your 18yr cycle begin?

Good question; and you opened Pandora's box. A little background before I answer you. There are two historical cases of the US 18 year cycle being contracted to 13 years. If one considers British cycles, there are 72 and even 92 year cycles. Rather than present the alternative scenario's, my current working hypothesis is that the current 18 year cycle began in Oct 2002, will probably contract between 2011-2016 and form a double bottom between 2017-2023 [I'll probably won't be around then]. Thus, the high for this cycle pattern will likely occur between 2008-2011. If the low that I expect does not occur, then I will have to present the alternate scenario....MDW

[Trend-Signals]

Trend Signals: With the 18 year cycle, there are usually three to five 4 year cycles. [The beginning 4 year cycle is always bullish]. The first low of this beginning cycle was due between Oct 2005 to June 2007. Because of the high earlier this year, I am not convinced that the low is in yet. Therefore, I am anticipating a very sharp decline that ends before June 30th. At that point, the second 4 year cycle should begin....MDW

Thanks MDW


When did your 18yr cycle begin?

Good question; and you opened Pandora's box. A little background before I answer you. There are two historical cases of the US 18 year cycle being contracted to 13 years. If one considers British cycles, there are 72 and even 92 year cycles. Rather than present the alternative scenario's, my current working hypothesis is that the current 18 year cycle began in Oct 2002, will probably contract between 2011-2016 and form a double bottom between 2017-2023 [I'll probably won't be around then]. Thus, the high for this cycle pattern will likely occur between 2008-2011. If the low that I expect does not occur, then I will have to present the alternate scenario....MDW

Wonderful, thanks!

Your comment is in line with my 16-8-4 yr cycles which I commented during Jun-Jul 2006 low, vice versa.

Even though we are not talking about the same cycles, i.e. 16 vs 18, we are projecting the same major high/low of the cycles.

You noted that 2017-2023 (you won't be around?), are you being serious?

For IT cyclical perspective, are you saying that you are expecting lower market than Jun-Jul 2006 in Mid 2007 for you 4yr cycle low? Of course, your 18yr cycle is larger timeframe, such as 8yr cycle vs 8.6 yr cycle and 16yr cycle vs 18yr cycle, your anticipating of 4yr cycle would be in 2007; however, if we don't see lower market than Jun-Jul 2006, then, you would say that 4 yr cycle low was in mid 2006. Agree?

Thanks for your comment. Like to keep in touch with you when I am ready to get back to cycles in detail.

[skott]

the minimum decline into a 4 year low was 12.6% give or take. this july was only around 8% and a bit early. 4 years lows often stretch out beyond 48 months when they do the average length of the cycle is 54 months (right about now) when this happens the decline is usually 24% or better and minimum of 16%

[mdwllc]

the minimum decline into a 4 year low was 12.6% give or take. this july was only around 8% and a bit early. 4 years lows often stretch out beyond 48 months when they do the average length of the cycle is 54 months (right about now) when this happens the decline is usually 24% or better and minimum of 16%

Skott: You're correct; I'm anticipating 20% +/-...MDW

[fib_1618]

Could you tell me what your opinions are on the 4yr cycle low in Jun-Jul 2006?

By my work, that time period was the actual bottoming process of the 9 month low.

The 4 year low came in on August 11th.

Fib

[skott]

since 1896 the decline into a 4 year low has never been lower than 12.6% during that time period 13 of the 27 4 year cycles last more than 48 months. In that group 54 was the average length into the 4 year bottom. And, I believe, the average decline was 24% with a minimum of 16% and that was rare. I'm not basing this on my work. I'm stating what has actually occurred over the last 111 years.

Edited by skott, 10 April 2007 - 02:09 PM.