5 replies to this topic

[Cirrus]

That managers like Bill Miller realize they are WRONG! Crude is going higher this year unless there's a worldwide depression which IMO is at best doubtful. I have followed the data for a couple years and attempted to be objective when assessing which side of the 'peak oil' debate is right. For me it's obvious. This is like being in 1998 and knowing what happenned to the internet stocks from 1998 to 2000. Easy, easy money. Many here do not and will not believe until these stocks launch.

[ed rader]

That managers like Bill Miller realize they are WRONG! Crude is going higher this year unless there's a worldwide depression which IMO is at best doubtful.

I have followed the data for a couple years and attempted to be objective when assessing which side of the 'peak oil' debate is right. For me it's obvious. This is like being in 1998 and knowing what happenned to the internet stocks from 1998 to 2000. Easy, easy money. Many here do not and will not believe until these stocks launch.

i'm one of the doubters. i think we look back in a few years and see another california/enron electricity shortage.

but deception and exogenous events could temporarily take us to new highs.

you think crude takes out $80 this year?

ed rader

[Cirrus]

That managers like Bill Miller realize they are WRONG! Crude is going higher this year unless there's a worldwide depression which IMO is at best doubtful.

I have followed the data for a couple years and attempted to be objective when assessing which side of the 'peak oil' debate is right. For me it's obvious. This is like being in 1998 and knowing what happenned to the internet stocks from 1998 to 2000. Easy, easy money. Many here do not and will not believe until these stocks launch.

i'm one of the doubters. i think we look back in a few years and see another california/enron electricity shortage.

but deception and exogenous events could temporarily take us to new highs.

you think crude takes out $80 this year?

ed rader

Right now we are slightly refinery constrained. But IMO we will be crude constrained by year's end. The world still has some NG and plenty of coal so it's not going to be a spike IMO. It will be a grinding, multi-year bull market. That's just a guess. For me, having studied the data from several 'angles', I think peak oil is inevitable and we will see it over the coming 36 months if we aren't there right now.

I'm guessing most people that don't 'believe' in peak oil haven't really dug into the data for themselves. Have you spent the time to read as much data as possible from both sides of the aruement?

[ed rader]

That managers like Bill Miller realize they are WRONG! Crude is going higher this year unless there's a worldwide depression which IMO is at best doubtful.

I have followed the data for a couple years and attempted to be objective when assessing which side of the 'peak oil' debate is right. For me it's obvious. This is like being in 1998 and knowing what happenned to the internet stocks from 1998 to 2000. Easy, easy money. Many here do not and will not believe until these stocks launch.

i'm one of the doubters. i think we look back in a few years and see another california/enron electricity shortage.

but deception and exogenous events could temporarily take us to new highs.

you think crude takes out $80 this year?

ed rader

Right now we are slightly refinery constrained. But IMO we will be crude constrained by year's end. The world still has some NG and plenty of coal so it's not going to be a spike IMO. It will be a grinding, multi-year bull market. That's just a guess. For me, having studied the data from several 'angles', I think peak oil is inevitable and we will see it over the coming 36 months if we aren't there right now.

I'm guessing most people that don't 'believe' in peak oil haven't really dug into the data for themselves. Have you spent the time to read as much data as possible from both sides of the aruement?

i believe in peak oil but i don't think it's upon us now. we invade the country with the second largest oil reserves and the price of crude triples. it's all a little too coincidental to me.

but then again i live in california where now that the power crisis and rolling blackouts have vanished all we are left with are much higher energy prices.

yep i'm skeptical.

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 11 April 2007 - 10:53 AM.

[Cirrus]

It's not about reserves whatsoever--it's about production. Inventories don't matter that much. The market has said this as prices rose despite huge inventories. Most here don't even realize that world petro inventories dropped over 100 million barrels in Q1. The EIA which is FAR from the peak oil camp is predicting a 1.5 MBPD SHORTFALL in Q4. The have continuously missed the world's supply/demand demand realtionship with their estimates in the past few years. They have missed by overestimating supply and underestimating demand. Ironically, the puzzling thing for me is "why aren't these stocks a LOT higher"? I ask--am I wrong? It's my opinion that the reason they aren't higher is because the majority think oil is the same as it ever was. I always leave room for myself to be wrong in this business and I may be. However, the data I've seen would have to be grossly inaccurate for that to be the case. We'll see...

[SemiBizz]

We don't have peak oil, I don't see any shortages here, just high prices. This is a SCAM.