8 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

Dyn Rydex positions for the RUT are and have been bearish in their bets,... as those come off that should add some support. The Dyn NDX positions are a bit more complicated as they usually are. We are faster flippers providing more to think about. As of last night we saw a large short position that countered yesterdays up move with a bearish bet, mainly because he/they/? wasn't already positioned for it,...this would normally be bullish, but in this case,...not so fast. This position usually doesn't like to lose. So with any further gains today for the NDX we should see the bet double down,.. so to speak. And then the markets should follow, meaning a quick pullback which should then be followed by some profit taking and a potential FLIP LONG at the NEXT Low. These rather large moves are usually going from Short to Long as we move from Wednesday into Thursday and usually sneaking out by Friday,... but the recent activity has seemed to show some signs of speeding up their actions. So stay nimble in your thinking as the NDX may be pulled up today by the current positions in the RUT as well as the positive signs for my hourly indicators for the INDU, & SPX. But it gets a little tricky, as the SOX in still stuck in the mud and my NDX hourly signal stalled from positive yesterday to almost neutral this morning. As mentioned above I expect that the Short NDX players want to get paid for their work, which may mean adding to their position on any higher close, and covering on the next pullback as well as a possible flip to the long side. It is then,.. when the big money shifts again to the long side,...we could possibly test the highs or even diverge into NEW highs and that is when we want to start Front running things. At that time we should see short term indicators Overbought again while longer term internal indicators should be setting up and FLASHING their divergences. That could be "it" for a while as the large NDX player(s) will need to exit their LONGs when other folks could also be thinking sell in May and go away. Stay tuned. :bowrie:

Edited by Mr Dev, 13 April 2007 - 10:25 AM.

[eminimee]

I'm thinking a high Monday or Tuesday..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=21&i=p43084282373&a=89602802&r=5723.png

[Mr Dev]

I'm thinking a high Monday or Tuesday..

I guess if I had to translate my thoughts into the coming days I would expect some highs at today's close or even Monday morning, ...

check to see if there is news, ... would then see a reversal and a pullback into Monday by the close targeting for

a Tuesday morning Low then,..things should be on track for a possible pop into next Wednesday by Thursday,.. and then

I would want to be short at least 50% by Thursday's close and the other 50% by Friday's close.

Now I could adjust some of this by 1/2 to 1full day based on any news but I try not to do that initially.

This is purely base on expected money movement.

Edited by Mr Dev, 13 April 2007 - 10:37 AM.

[mdwllc]

Dyn Rydex positions for the RUT are and have been bearish in their bets,... as those come off that should

add some support.

The Dyn NDX positions are a bit more complicated as they usually are. We are faster flippers providing

more to think about.

As of last night we saw a large short position that countered yesterdays up move with a bearish bet, mainly

because he/they/? wasn't already positioned for it,...this would normally be bullish, but in this case,...not so fast.

This position usually doesn't like to lose.

So with any further gains today for the NDX we should see the bet double down,.. so to speak.

And then the markets should follow, meaning a quick pullback which should then be followed by some profit

taking and a potential FLIP LONG at the NEXT Low.

These rather large moves are usually going from Short to Long as we move from Wednesday into Thursday and

usually sneaking out by Friday,... but the recent activity has seemed to show some signs of speeding up their actions.

So stay nimble in your thinking as the NDX may be pulled up today by the current positions in the RUT as well as the

positive signs for my hourly indicators for the INDU, & SPX. But it gets a little tricky, as the SOX in still

stuck in the mud and my NDX hourly signal stalled from positive yesterday to almost neutral this morning.

As mentioned above I expect that the Short NDX players want to get paid for their work, which may mean

adding to their position on any higher close, and covering on the next pullback as well as a possible flip to the long side.

It is then,.. when the big money shifts again to the long side,...we could possibly test the highs or even

diverge into NEW highs and that is when we want to start Front running things.

At that time we should see short term indicators Overbought again while longer term internal indicators

should be setting up and FLASHING their divergences.

That could be "it" for a while as the large NDX player(s) will need to exit their LONGs when other folks

could also be thinking sell in May and go away.

Stay tuned. :bowrie:

Mr. Dev: I have been suspect by all Rydex data since the entry of Proshares, Profunds etc. [personally, I have been moving away from my Rydex holdings because I like the liquidity and ability to get in/out rather than twice/day] Anyway, I have been wondering for some time regarding the validity of the Rydex indicators like they used to be. My gut feel is that their figures have been significantly impacted...but I can't find any study or anyone that knows definitevely. Anyway, I believe the NDX has set its high and the other indicies are completing them now; I'll be able to tell you better after 1:00PM...MDW

[hiker]

Hi Dev, DNDN went from $12 when you and I last spoke to $25.25...in less than 7 full trading days. Buy stops work just as well as sell stops - have a good weekend, and thanks for your continued work.

[Mr Dev]

Mr. Dev: I have been suspect by all Rydex data since the entry of Proshares, Profunds etc. [personally, I have been moving away from my Rydex holdings because I like the liquidity and ability to get in/out rather than twice/day] Anyway, I have been wondering for some time regarding the validity of the Rydex indicators like they used to be. My gut feel is that their figures have been significantly impacted...but I can't find any study or anyone that knows definitevely. Anyway, I believe the NDX has set its high and the other indicies are completing them now; I'll be able to tell you better after 1:00PM...MDW

I understand your thoughts and concerns but they are unfounded here as far as my information is concerned.

Since I'm a short term swing trader I'm avoiding relying on any

historical Rydex Fund Asset Values and Historical Ratios comparisons

as referenced by many including myself in the past.

You will only her me strictly commenting on Large Money movements that ACTIVELY flow in and out

and how they often affect short term directions.

Everything else ... is ignored.

Hi Dev,

DNDN went from $12 when you and I last spoke to $25.25...in less than 7 full trading days. Buy stops work just as well as sell stops -

have a good weekend, and thanks for your continued work.

So .....sweet,.... I'm jealous,... also wishing I had more into the oil and gold funds.

This is the time to make some nice bank trading many other things beside leveraged indexes.

Edited by Mr Dev, 13 April 2007 - 12:38 PM.

[Mr Dev]

I'm thinking a high Monday or Tuesday..

Hey Tea,

My daily thoughts were based on the higher probability of NDX closing Up along with the DOW and S&P,

however if the NDX can close down regardless ....?....... that would allow the recent position mentioned

earlier to exit profitably, .....and even possibly take that FLIP to the Long side earlier than previously mentioned.

This would allow my viewpoint to accelerate the possible

market action in what would enable the NDX to move almost exactly as you've

mentioned above +/- 1/2 day.


Just thought you'd like to know.

Edited by Mr Dev, 13 April 2007 - 12:51 PM.

[mdwllc]

Dyn Rydex positions for the RUT are and have been bearish in their bets,... as those come off that should

add some support.

The Dyn NDX positions are a bit more complicated as they usually are. We are faster flippers providing

more to think about.

As of last night we saw a large short position that countered yesterdays up move with a bearish bet, mainly

because he/they/? wasn't already positioned for it,...this would normally be bullish, but in this case,...not so fast.

This position usually doesn't like to lose.

So with any further gains today for the NDX we should see the bet double down,.. so to speak.

And then the markets should follow, meaning a quick pullback which should then be followed by some profit

taking and a potential FLIP LONG at the NEXT Low.

These rather large moves are usually going from Short to Long as we move from Wednesday into Thursday and

usually sneaking out by Friday,... but the recent activity has seemed to show some signs of speeding up their actions.

So stay nimble in your thinking as the NDX may be pulled up today by the current positions in the RUT as well as the

positive signs for my hourly indicators for the INDU, & SPX. But it gets a little tricky, as the SOX in still

stuck in the mud and my NDX hourly signal stalled from positive yesterday to almost neutral this morning.

As mentioned above I expect that the Short NDX players want to get paid for their work, which may mean

adding to their position on any higher close, and covering on the next pullback as well as a possible flip to the long side.

It is then,.. when the big money shifts again to the long side,...we could possibly test the highs or even

diverge into NEW highs and that is when we want to start Front running things.

At that time we should see short term indicators Overbought again while longer term internal indicators

should be setting up and FLASHING their divergences.

That could be "it" for a while as the large NDX player(s) will need to exit their LONGs when other folks

could also be thinking sell in May and go away.

Stay tuned. :bowrie:

Mr. Dev: I have been suspect by all Rydex data since the entry of Proshares, Profunds etc. [personally, I have been moving away from my Rydex holdings because I like the liquidity and ability to get in/out rather than twice/day] Anyway, I have been wondering for some time regarding the validity of the Rydex indicators like they used to be. My gut feel is that their figures have been significantly impacted...but I can't find any study or anyone that knows definitevely. Anyway, I believe the NDX has set its high and the other indicies are completing them now; I'll be able to tell you better after 1:00PM...MDW

Update: Obviously 2 hours off and wrong..MDW

[Mr Dev]

Update: Obviously 2 hours off and wrong..MDW

Its no big deal,,.. just part of the game, and its a good thing to see it early,..
.. I wish I could always see it early.

I'm thinking a high Monday or Tuesday..

I guess if I had to translate my thoughts into the coming days I would expect some highs at today's close or even Monday morning, ...

check to see if there is news, ... would then see a reversal and a pullback into Monday by the close targeting for

a Tuesday morning Low then,.

Well there will be early NEWs Monday which should help reinforce this scenario.... at possibly todays close.


stay tuned..

Edited by Mr Dev, 13 April 2007 - 02:23 PM.