4 replies to this topic

[tozwp]

Reminds me of late February. Market gapped down in the morning and then drifted higher all day long. Did this three times that week before finally cratering on Monday the week after. This looks the same here. No volume on the sell side but no buying either. If I was a large bagholder looking to unload, I'd wait for an up day on large volume. Too easy to spook this market so the little short traders just get squeezed and squeezed until they give up. Could end anytime or could just continue up. Hard to tell but this doesn't look strong at all to me. I'm flat just watching/waiting for more clues.

[Mr Dev]

hmmm, As much as I think that the RUT looks parabolic on a long term chart and should initiate a longer term decline,...there is still a lot of short term money thinking the same, so when and as they exit it will lend support or hold off any correction while possibly increasing short term volatility, and possibly push the RUT higher. Whenever I finally see a good chunk of that short money exit with a market reaction then,... I'll re-enter for a longer swing trade.

Edited by Mr Dev, 13 April 2007 - 12:59 PM.

[tozwp]

hmmm,

As much as I think that the RUT looks parabolic on a long term chart and should initiate a longer term decline,...there

is still a lot of short term money thinking the same, so when and as they exit it will lend support or hold off

any correction while possibly increasing short term volatility, and possibly push the RUT higher.

Whenever I finally see a good chunk of that short money exit with a market reaction then,... I'll re-enter for a

longer swing trade.

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm thinking the same thing from what I'm seeing in the COT data and Rydex. If it won't go down, it will probably squeeze up. Daily chart going back a couple of years looks to me like the channels are rolling over slowly. Possible new channel forming from top in May 06 to the recent top in Feb. Market could make new highs and still be within that shallower channel. Bottom of channel is currently in the low 700's using a parallel drawn from the top channel and the lows between from July 06.

[Mr Dev]

This is my RUT chart as you can see ...we may have broken out of resistance,..but I doubt it.... we

may have just seen a Fabulous Friday overthrow as this is now starts to qualify for the "Third Push"


Here is the NDX which shows lagging signs but could still Gap up Monday just to meet its res zone,...

the smaller pattern is mostly bullish the Larger is mostly neutral.

So I actually moved a short position into the RUT before the close,... trying to avoid a poss NDX Gap n Crap

while taking advantage of some lower entry prices for the RUT at the close. I'll be checking to see if a little of this push up was

some covering.

Again if the NDX can Gap up there I still have 50% more ammo to take a short position there for a short term trade.

These indicators are best taken at the crossovers, so I am clearly early in anticipating the next move do to the triangle pattern.

I feel this pattern pushes prices Up from its Bottom line and down from it TOP line as it nears resolution into the apex.

Edited by Mr Dev, 13 April 2007 - 03:17 PM.

[Mr Dev]

hmmm,

Whenever I finally see a good chunk of that short money exit with a market reaction then,... I'll re-enter for a

longer swing trade.

Ooops,

Well I said little bout re-entering partial for a short term trade, it was a little last min decision and probably
early .. and you'll be able to do better.

Problem is now if we do see some NEWs related selling Monday most Rydex shorts will,..could be getting out together.

Can't wait to see if today saw covering ... dat would be nice

Edited by Mr Dev, 13 April 2007 - 03:29 PM.