The white soldier #2 of the three that I suggested on Wednesday were coming is in the books. One more to go, but I think it doesn't even matter if we get it or not from this particular perspective or point in time (per the 50ma). We've already accomplished today the required price movement to capture the next price level, and the 50ma adherance to trend is now secured for 8 more days, so the 3rd soldier could be considered extraneous and expendable for the sake of keeping the market confused. Look at the projected 8 days ahead on the chart below. As long as we resume upward price movement from right here after the eighth day from now, the market can do anything it wants until then (within reason). So if I'm fortunate enough to continue being correct about this, the market has bought itself 8 trading days from today to screw with our heads before having to work on moving above to the next price level and maintain the 50ma slope status quo.
My theory behind all this is that institutions are now in need of lots of hand-holding and gentle assurances in order to be enticed to continue buying mass quantities of consumables. I've been suspecting for awhile that commercials would attempt to craft the 50ma to become absorbed into the trend centerline (right or wrong, I prefer to draw it from the lowest high of a previous downtrend if I can) for this very purpose. If so, now it's all just maintenance work from this point forward, and crafting the 50ma now means nothing more than cloning the price from 51 days ago on key days. I emphasize key days, because it would make sense to utilize consolidation periods (like the next 8 days) to make this look unscripted by shaking & baking until the actual and all-important next transcending price day (coming up 10 trading days from now, on April 27th). I think the market shall pickpocket traders while it lets the 50ma "rest" for 8 days. The working days would come again in day 9 to move up (or fight to hold onto early gains), and day 10 to thrust it again. In the meantime, any dip to today's low will get ~SO~ bot. But I wonder if that 2/27 stick isn't saying "sell in (very early) May", at least in the context of this perspective. All just in my humble delusions, of course.
Here's the original post~
Don't trend lines seem much more meaningful when they're reinforced by a major moving average, like this?
Here is the ideal "maintenance fractal" for keeping the 50ma up with the new, lighter-duty trend. The bulls will need to be pulling off the kind of price movement (more or less) shown in the upper right rectangle. Otherwise, the 50ma may seek out another trend line, doncha know?
It's nothing more than the 12-day fractal that preceded the 50-day period outlined in the large rectangle, plus 274 points (the difference between today's close and the close from 50 days ago...1/29/07).
Bulls, your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to generate Three White Soldiers before opex, preferably beginning tomorrow, because a post-opex dump-n-pump rally is also scheduled. This message will self-destruct in 5 seconds ...4...3...2...1...
Best,
MN
