7 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

Wouldn't this take the majority by surprise..........is anyone NOT negative on housing at this point? Didn't I hear Buffet was buying builders?.......and railroads?

Don't laugh until it breaks down below support....that would ruin the count.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HGX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=p27434630753&a=95450372&r=4204.png



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HGX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=21&i=p30647368310&a=95078255&r=7602.png

[eminimee]

I guess I put the bull glasses on this morning......

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=21&i=t92614491767&a=81733615&r=4342.png

[jmicou]

Interesting. The SentimenTrader Housing MCO is reflecting bullish divergence to price since March, which you picked up through the MACD.

[Tor]

I am bullish housing stocks NOT houses themselves. By this I mean, stock prices discount a lot already, and we are unlikely to see a collapse in the housing market. Property ran up in the UK, Australia, and other regions, much more than in the US. Houses trade on multiples of 8 times, which is way beyond the historical norms.. But the so called collapses in these regionsnever materialised. I imagine the same in the US. Bear in mind we are in a global reflation. Barring an oil price shock of somekind, expect assets (stocks and housing) on balance to remain flat net net, as wages catch up. I am a bull of gold for this reason. As for stocks I see a sharp sell off which will give birth to a new bull market run up.

[jmicou]

I am bullish housing stocks NOT houses themselves. By this I mean, stock prices discount a lot already, and we are unlikely to see a collapse in the housing market.

Property ran up in the UK, Australia, and other regions, much more than in the US. Houses trade on multiples of 8 times, which is way beyond the historical norms.. But the so called collapses in these regionsnever materialised. I imagine the same in the US.

Bear in mind we are in a global reflation. Barring an oil price shock of somekind, expect assets (stocks and housing) on balance to remain flat net net, as wages catch up.

I am a bull of gold for this reason.

As for stocks I see a sharp sell off which will give birth to a new bull market run up.

At some point, there will be more of a decline that what has recently occured, which has been mild. The question is at from what level? Given the current configurations and if earnings turn out well, such a decline may not occur until after price expansion to the upside. If earnings really disappoint and the configurations turn negative, then the bears could gain in control. Given the bullish posture of the commercials as reflected by the COTs, it does not seem that they are prepared for a negative earnings season.

[n83]

stcharts again down..in strong trend of being down-

[Tor]

I am bullish housing stocks NOT houses themselves. By this I mean, stock prices discount a lot already, and we are unlikely to see a collapse in the housing market.

Property ran up in the UK, Australia, and other regions, much more than in the US. Houses trade on multiples of 8 times, which is way beyond the historical norms.. But the so called collapses in these regionsnever materialised. I imagine the same in the US.

Bear in mind we are in a global reflation. Barring an oil price shock of somekind, expect assets (stocks and housing) on balance to remain flat net net, as wages catch up.

I am a bull of gold for this reason.

As for stocks I see a sharp sell off which will give birth to a new bull market run up.

At some point, there will be more of a decline that what has recently occured, which has been mild. The question is at from what level? Given the current configurations and if earnings turn out well, such a decline may not occur until after price expansion to the upside. If earnings really disappoint and the configurations turn negative, then the bears could gain in control. Given the bullish posture of the commercials as reflected by the COTs, it does not seem that they are prepared for a negative earnings season.

Yes I see that, but personally can still see a short term decline in a bullish trend up for 07, even with the COT's long here. To be clear on my housing point the multiples I was referring to here are average salaries relative to house prices.In the uk for example, the average salary is 25k, the avarge house price is 200k. thats 8 times and the mean historicaly has been 4 times. I was too young in the 70's but understand salaries did nothing then in the space of a few years started jumping upwards to make up for lost ground. Its all about currencies here IMO.

Amazing, I have just completed the performance figures: the US was the best market local currency, but when we factored in the currency it was UNCHANGED! It suprised me. The best markets were Europe and the UK, currency adjusted. Japan the worst.

[eminimee]

Tor: I agree with a new bull market run....the question is from where? Are the lows in? or yet to come later in the fall where we get a lower low south of recent lows....or a higher low similar to the 94 pattern. Are we in a B wave now or a bigger ED? I could flip a coin at this point....probably why I'm flipping back and forth on my blog.....I'd never be a good newsletter writer. People want direction not waffeling.

What is bullish for the LT regardles of whether or not we have "the" low in or not.......is found in the oex/spx ratio

If we repeat the pattern the ratio took in the 93/94 ...time wise.....the 10% correction would come in the fall....maybe that's the plan....to get our first 10%er before a run that will be more powerful than what we've seen from March 03.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX:$SPX&p=D&st=1990-01-01&i=p69514563362&a=98616671&r=4906.png