10 replies to this topic

[Rocketman]

87 Cycle Inverts?

8/25/87H = 2/22/07H
10/5/87H = 3/30/07L
10/20/87L = 4/14/07 HIGH?

Also the 1966 Analog is being following religiously with a 4/13 High and a double Top on 4/21/07:


Click Here to see Full Sized Image


[b]OTOH, I have that old 1/29 symmetry cycle of mine that suggests:



an 4/18 and 4/20 Lows and a final High on 4/26, although with SP Cycles this one could be inverted and we might just as well have a 4/18-20 High and a 4/26 Low.

All Fwiw, Purely Speculative, blah blah, etc.

Ian

[Frac_Man]

Almost perfect including the prior summer rally for the Feb top !

Hank

looks like the crash will be after OPEX ......... pending NO NEW HIGHS <<<<<<<<<<

87 Cycle Inverts?

8/25/87H = 2/22/07H
10/5/87H = 3/30/07L
10/20/87L = 4/14/07 HIGH?

Also the 1966 Analog is being following religiously with a 4/13 High and a double Top on 4/21/07:


Click Here to see Full Sized Image


[b]OTOH, I have that old 1/29 symmetry cycle of mine that suggests:



an 4/18 and 4/20 Lows and a final High on 4/26, although with SP Cycles this one could be inverted and we might just as well have a 4/18-20 High and a 4/26 Low.

All Fwiw, Purely Speculative, blah blah, etc.

Ian

[mortiz]

Ian, Very nice dig in finding the current price similarities from the 1966 action, good job! However, this is heresy in some corners, but the liquidity behavior was quite a bit different in April 1966 than currently. I have the NYSE AD McSum sitting comfortably below zero in the spring of 1966, which has historically allowed the type of price crash that unfolded, illustrated so well in the chart. Currently, the NYSE AD McSum is comfortably above the +500 level at +834, which historically resists such price plunge debacles. The NYSE common stock only AD McSum is also above +650, so it cannot be currently argued the many non-operating company issues on the NYSE is keeping the McSum at high levels. Then we have the cumulative NYSE AD lines, composite and common stock only, at all-time highs both on a daily and weekly basis..... I am not arguing a correction cannot occur in the coming days, but the likelihood of a 20% or more haircut in price is very low due to one important player: liquidity. FWIW Randy N.

[QID_trader]

Awesome work Hankster Fractman and Rocketman too! That 1966 Fractal is nearly indentical to now. Unfortunate for me if the top is formed between now and end of week the my April Crash Puts will expire worthless, but maybe there is hope that the top comes a little early certainly that might be a close enough fit. Either way I am very glad that I bought an even larger position in the May 43 QQQQ Puts becuase the 1966 Fractal shows for sure we will have crashed by mid May and it look like a real Doosy! I am thinking about putting my enitre account in the May 43 QQQQ puts if the market is making a high on 4/20 turning point date. Too many signals all pointing to the same thing which is major Crash from there into mid-May. Good luck to us Bears but Bulls will be the one who need luck not us. PS. Moritz I think this market is not the same as the past where AD line mattered. With Hedge Funds dominating the trading now it is things like Fractals and Cycles like those above and Price which will foretell the future. AD line did not predict 2/27 Crash so what good is it to me? Good Trading, -Greg

[spielchekr]

Ian,

Very nice dig in finding the current price similarities from the 1966 action, good job!

However, this is heresy in some corners, but the liquidity behavior was quite a bit different in April 1966 than currently. I have the NYSE AD McSum sitting comfortably below zero in the spring of 1966, which has historically allowed the type of price crash that unfolded, illustrated so well in the chart.

Currently, the NYSE AD McSum is comfortably above the +500 level at +834, which historically resists such price plunge debacles. The NYSE common stock only AD McSum is also above +650, so it cannot be currently argued the many non-operating company issues on the NYSE is keeping the McSum at high levels. Then we have the cumulative NYSE AD lines, composite and common stock only, at all-time highs both on a daily and weekly basis.....

I am not arguing a correction cannot occur in the coming days, but the likelihood of a 20% or more haircut in price is very low due to one important player: liquidity.

FWIW

Randy N.

I can't help but wonder if "dark pool" trading isn't already degrading these types of liquidity measures. Traderpaul brought this to the board's attention in this post. Is everyone who trades NYSE the dumb money now?

Edited by spielchekr, 15 April 2007 - 12:57 PM.

[relax]

Sorry but what is OPEX?
Thanks!

Almost perfect including the prior summer rally for the Feb top !

Hank

looks like the crash will be after OPEX ......... pending NO NEW HIGHS <<<<<<<<<<

87 Cycle Inverts?

8/25/87H = 2/22/07H
10/5/87H = 3/30/07L
10/20/87L = 4/14/07 HIGH?

Also the 1966 Analog is being following religiously with a 4/13 High and a double Top on 4/21/07:


Click Here to see Full Sized Image


[b]OTOH, I have that old 1/29 symmetry cycle of mine that suggests:



an 4/18 and 4/20 Lows and a final High on 4/26, although with SP Cycles this one could be inverted and we might just as well have a 4/18-20 High and a 4/26 Low.

All Fwiw, Purely Speculative, blah blah, etc.

Ian

[OEXCHAOS]

OPEX = Options Expiration

[mortiz]

QID-Trader wrote:

Moritz I think this market is not the same as the past where AD line mattered. With Hedge Funds dominating the trading now it is things like Fractals and Cycles like those above and Price which will foretell the future. AD line did not predict 2/27 Crash so what good is it to me?

Although most analysts who employ the AD line in their TA tool box do not use it for short term trading, it serves as a longer term measure of liquidity in the market, and a verification tool of the long term trend. For savvy short term traders as yourself, I would stick to your current methodologies. Based upon the current configuration of the AD McSum, don't count on any market collapse exceeding 10% in the next couple of weeks... anything can happen, but the probability of a crash right here is very low.... and depends upon your definition of a crash. I call the late February/early March 6% SPX not-so-surprising decline a healthy correction, not a crash.

There are some shorter term tools suggesting a near term consolidation or correction is possible, and with OPEX in play, da boyz will run the larger cap issues which ever direction they want.

spielchekr wrote:

I can't help but wonder if "dark pool" trading isn't already degrading these types of liquidity measures. Traderpaul brought this to the board's attention in this post. Is everyone who trades NYSE the dumb money now?

Liquidity as measured by internals worthless now? In the fullness of time we shall find out...... but a few of us (and I'm glad it's just a few of us) are not betting on it.

Randy

[Rocketman]

Mortiz, I am not sure about a big decline either. Short term, I still have a 4/16L and a 4/19-20H, the decline afterwards could be into the next 10 TD Cycle low, which could arrive as early as the 4/26 SP Cycle Date, which will then inivite Buyers once again. I am in the 3/14/07 is the LOW group, any decline should hold above this Low, atleast for a couple of months. Ian

[Frac_Man]

It's going to be a nail biter for sure , but it should work out to the downside

Hank

Awesome work Hankster Fractman and Rocketman too!

That 1966 Fractal is nearly indentical to now. Unfortunate for me if the top is formed between now and end of week the my April Crash Puts will expire worthless, but maybe there is hope that the top comes a little early certainly that might be a close enough fit.

Either way I am very glad that I bought an even larger position in the May 43 QQQQ Puts becuase the 1966 Fractal shows for sure we will have crashed by mid May and it look like a real Doosy! I am thinking about putting my enitre account in the May 43 QQQQ puts if the market is making a high on 4/20 turning point date. Too many signals all pointing to the same thing which is major Crash from there into mid-May.

Good luck to us Bears but Bulls will be the one who need luck not us.

PS.

Moritz I think this market is not the same as the past where AD line mattered. With Hedge Funds dominating the trading now it is things like Fractals and Cycles like those above and Price which will foretell the future. AD line did not predict 2/27 Crash so what good is it to me?

Good Trading,
-Greg