9 replies to this topic

[NAV]

My 40% swing short position from ES 1460 got stopped out after they "Jumped the creek" above the gap resistance on Monday, for a 8 points loss. Since then, i have been looking for a decent entry, but have not found one. A VST short selling oportunity is setting up on my 120-min charts. I will likely daytrade this decline. I am expecting a test of ES 1459 support. I don't have a crystal ball beyond that. The IT top still looks elusive.

[jmicou]

My 40% swing short position from ES 1460 got stopped out after they "Jumped the creek" above the gap resistance on Monday, for a 8 points loss. Since then, i have been looking for a decent entry, but have not found one. A VST short selling oportunity is setting up on my 120-min charts. I will likely daytrade this decline. I am expecting a test of ES 1459 support. I don't have a crystal ball beyond that. The IT top still looks elusive.

Good post! Although you unfortunately took a loss, the post reflected the loss with honesty and as a follow up. Illustrated how to take a loss with discipline, then look for the next set up without unreasonable prognostications for the future

[wallofworry]

Agreed. what IT top when we we are down 6pts on the Naz futures already. No IT top till we open up +50points on the DOW futures 3 consecutive days in a row.

[jjc]

thx for the post. good trading.

[eminimee]

My pseudo gann lines........if yesterdays top is taken out and a clean break of that gann line occurs, a test of the old highs and possibly more is the next stop....however....we are showing divergence that is possibly signaling B wave and a trip back down to the black channel bottom maybe in store. Stop here B wave....through the top and we are in something more bullish....we all want simplicity....but it's rare...I know.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=9&mn=6&dy=0&i=p54193505248&a=57601821&r=2672.png

[OEXCHAOS]

Yeah. This market is kind of frustrating. We only BARELY got enough Bearishness built up to mark a low--which wasn't really compelling given the nastiness of the decline, and the price action just BARELY was adequate to be considered a complete correction. Now, as I look over the data, ever since the low, the sentiment data has been creeping back and fourth between neutral, constructive, and a little bit Bearish. Essentially no help at all. Fortunately, big picture, we knew thanks to the sentiment signature from day one that the decline was only a correction and that ultimately we would see new highs and much more Bullishness before the ultimate high for the Bull. Currently, we're a long long way from that. I was hoping we'd see a big surge in Bullishness and capitulation on the shot to new highs, but it's not forthcoming. So, all sentiment is giving us is a <shrug> "it could go up or down a bit from here". Thanks fer nuttin'! Anyway, NAV, thanks for the update. I only wish you were seeing something more compelling than I am. Mark

[traderpaul]

Mark, I think it was the retirement money that popped this market up.....Sentiment has nothing to do with it....

[BigBadBear]

"the sentiment data has been creeping back and fourth between neutral, constructive, and a little bit Bearish. Essentially no help at all."

NO HELP AT ALL...Are you kiddin ?

Think about it for a second. Shouldnt we have near frothing levels of bullishness at these levels ? Why dont we ?....and is it possible that it may be more bullish than your wildest expectations ?

Yeah. This market is kind of frustrating. We only BARELY got enough Bearishness built up to mark a low--which wasn't really compelling given the nastiness of the decline, and the price action just BARELY was adequate to be considered a complete correction.

Now, as I look over the data, ever since the low, the sentiment data has been creeping back and fourth between neutral, constructive, and a little bit Bearish. Essentially no help at all.

Fortunately, big picture, we knew thanks to the sentiment signature from day one that the decline was only a correction and that ultimately we would see new highs and much more Bullishness before the ultimate high for the Bull.

Currently, we're a long long way from that. I was hoping we'd see a big surge in Bullishness and capitulation on the shot to new highs, but it's not forthcoming. So, all sentiment is giving us is a <shrug> "it could go up or down a bit from here".

Thanks fer nuttin'!

Anyway, NAV, thanks for the update. I only wish you were seeing something more compelling than I am.

Mark

[OEXCHAOS]

It's not that pessimistic to make me froth. And, there are pockets of optimism that make me open to selling. But you're right, the sentiment says that there's more up side, bigger picture. Maybe a lot more.

[TechSkeptic]

Good article from Hulbert on this:
http://www.marketwat...ont...FB}&dist=