8 replies to this topic

[S.I.M.O.N.]

spx is inside the 9/1/00 monthly down candle which opened at 1518, also the highest monthly close, should act like a magnet now, another 40pts to go before all time high confirmation.

[NAV]

spx is inside the 9/1/00 monthly down candle which opened at 1518, also the highest monthly close,
should act like a magnet now, another 40pts to go before all time high confirmation.

I love your signature

[denleo]

yep, I think all time highs on SPX will be achieved this summer or maybe even sooner. Denleo

[fib_1618]

yep, I think all time highs on SPX will be achieved this summer or maybe even sooner.

The internals suggest by the end of May...maybe sooner.

We should be able to firm this up by the end of next week.

Fib

[S.I.M.O.N.]

spx is inside the 9/1/00 monthly down candle which opened at 1518, also the highest monthly close,
should act like a magnet now, another 40pts to go before all time high confirmation.

I love your signature

your avatar's not too bad either

[denleo]

Hey Fib, What are your thoughts on NASDAQ? If S&P reaches all time highs, NASDAQ should participate. I am beginning to view NASDAQ as a stronger index now (regardless potential corrections). I would like to hear your thoughts and projections on NASDAQ. Denleo

[fib_1618]

What are your thoughts on NASDAQ? If S&P reaches all time highs, NASDAQ should participate. I am beginning to view NASDAQ as a stronger index now (regardless potential corrections). I would like to hear your thoughts and projections on NASDAQ.

One of the main reason why that the weighted SPX hasn't yet attained new all time highs over the last couple of years as many other indexes (both weighted and unweighted) have can be directly pointed to the technology sector which is still well below its highs seen back in 2000. Currently, the top 100 stocks of the NASDAQ exchange, the NDX, has been showing better relative strength than that of the total group of stocks that make up the this exchange of secondaries. This would suggest that this time around this same group is going to flex its muscles in helping reach these same all time highs in the weighted SPX during this current advancing price sequence.

As far as the McClellan Oscillator is concerned, we still have outstanding upside objectives given last fall for both of around the .382 retracement levels of the decline seen from 2000-2002: COMPX 2617 and NDX 2292. There should be no problem for the COMPX to reach it's target with just the energy generated last year, and with the current energy push entering the NDX group of stocks, it's 2292 objective is now highly doable.

When and if the McClellan tools give newer upside objectives it will be shared at that time (more than likely during a chat session) and this may happen as soon as next week based on the current structures of both of these same tools for these specific markets.

Overall though, I still don't see anything yet to change my mind as far as both the COMPX and NDX continuing to trade within a longer term bear market rally sequence, while the NYSE group of stocks continue strongly in bull mode to the upside.

Fib

[airedale88]

mangeman had IMO a great post back in may 20005............ MangeMan May 6 2005, 08:57 AM Post #1 Member Group: Traders-Talk User Posts: 662 Joined: 22-August 04 From: Sweden Member No.: 2279 NDX today only has 26 stocks that was in the index in 2000 If you look at the stocks that are in NDX today the index hit new ATH by a big margin already in 2003 Same goes for OEX and SPX The problem here is for those that still say we are in a bearmarket and should hit new lows, the NDX of 2000-2002 doesn't even exist today. All indexex we have today with the current compositin are all at ATH's by a very big margin. This only proves what the smal and midcap have been saying, the broad market (the majority of stocks) has been in a bull for a long time, a few stocks that fell 80-90% during 2000-2002 messed up the bigcaps to much

[Echo]

To extend that point a bit further, IMO, the validity of ANY technical analysis on an index involving comparison's to previous highs/lows or various levels going back several years is inherently and intimately dependent on the survivorship vs stability of its individual components. The higher the turnover in an index, the more suspect the TA comparisons vs index levels previously with a different set of components. This would be true for Fib levels, ewave, volume analysis and even analysis dependent on price, IMHO. Of course, being a secondary market, the nasdaq and NDX are far less stable than the NYSE/SPX, where weaker issues fade away and stronger issues often move up to the NYSE, though the SPX has had increased turnover lately due to the inclusion of the tech sector as pointed out by Fib. So in conclusion, perhaps the various TA projections of long term comparisons will have some fuzzy validity due to the smaller percentage of stable companies in the index and perhaps the mass psychology not aware or caring about the scientific validity of such projections. This may be enough to act as magnets and reactions in the real world, whether valid or not. Obviously, this comment does not apply to near term projections off of recent data as suggested by Fib's McOsc projections and applies mainly to references of ATH's back in 2000 when the components were far different and we experienced a mass psychology bubble mentality unique to that time period never to be repeated in the same way ever again. Next time, it will be different. Echo