15 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

SMH - $SOX 7yr Resistance & 7mo Trading range as alerted.

We have TXN report in AH. SMH initially broke above the 7mo trading range. We have hammer formation suggesting a top; however, with good market sentiment to the TXN earning report, we may see a follow-through the breakout.

We also have large caps $Sox components such as INTC has the same formation as $SOX-SMH.


TXN is trading at strong top formation (nine tops near 35) as we can see that it attempt to breakout in Sept 2006, but failed. TXN trading above 35 will confirm the $SOX - SMH breakout.



Good trading ALL


http://www.stockchar...98557&r=872.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SOX&p=M&yr=10&mn=11&dy=0&i=p22616739083&a=80631671&r=966.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SOX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p93451941454&a=71270540&r=427.png

http://www.stockchar...298551&r=78.png



$SSEC is making new high to 3710.89 while Futures are flat in premarket. $KOSPI also traded to new high to 1544.35 continuing to trade up after the breakout from 15yr resistance at 3050.

We would wonder whether US market will be the loser failing the breakout?


http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SSEC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p02439948996&a=66381250&r=667.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$KOSPI&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&i=p75413615740&a=94929938&r=190.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 23 April 2007 - 07:49 AM.

[johnmc]

The $VXN is suggesting a pullback right now. Friday's close touched the intersection of the uptrend and downtrend line. After that, it looks like the right shoulder could be forming.

http://stockcharts.c...&...38074&r=256

[SemiBizz]

Old News...

Posted on 4/2/07...


This Quarter's Pump and Dump - Semis

Edited by SemiBizz, 23 April 2007 - 10:01 AM.

[Trend-Signals]

In Jul 2006, I posted the $SOX bottom and the 4yr cycles when the $SOX reversed -- i.e. called $SOX bottom in Jul 2006.

Also posted 7yr trendline and 7mo trading range for weeks.


Will see TXN report in AH.


~~~



TXN has good earning track record and it seems that good growth in 2008 is not priced in to the market, but when it breaks above the 35 resistance, it will confirm the anticipation.


TXN

Quarterly Earnings Surprises Estimate Actual Surprise(%)
Quarter Ending 12/2006 0.38 0.40 5.26%
Quarter Ending 09/2006 0.45 0.45 0.00%
Quarter Ending 06/2006 0.46 0.47 2.17%
Quarter Ending 03/2006 0.33 0.33 0.00%
Quarter Ending 12/2005 0.41 0.43 4.88%


Earnings Estimates # of Ests. Mean Est. High Est. Low Est. EPS Growth
Quarter Ending 03/2007 31 0.31 0.32 0.30 -5.38%
Quarter Ending 06/2007 29 0.37 0.41 0.33 -21.72%
Year Ending 12/2007 33 1.57 1.82 1.39 -4.59%
Year Ending 12/2008 28 1.89 2.18 1.53 19.81%



~~~



Qs targeting $50, May 2001 resistance, with successful breakout of $SOX/SMH.

As shown on the monthly chart, Qs has already borken out of resistance at Dec 2001 high heading to May 2001 resistance.

With successful breakout of $SOX/SMH and with the global bullish sentiment, $SSEC as an example, Qs will see $50.



http://stockcharts.c...86237&r=691.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 23 April 2007 - 10:17 AM.

[Trend-Signals]

Email confirmation of:

CS PostReply : $SOX 7yr TL & Cycle (QQQQ), Wed Mar 21 2007


$SOX 7yr TL & Cycle:

$SOX is trading in a coil, consolidating formation during the last couple of years. Recently it was outperforming Nasdaq for a few weeks.

I posted this chart during last year in Jul 2006 showing the $SOX Cycle with $SOX 7yr TL. $SOX is trading in sym triangle formation and will be a strong move when it breaks out.

In Jul 2006, I posted the $SOX bottom and the 4yr cycles when the $SOX reversed -- i.e. called $SOX bottom in Jul 2006.

Also posted 7yr trendline and 7mo trading range for weeks.


Will see TXN report in AH.


~~~



TXN has good earning track record and it seems that good growth in 2008 is not priced in to the market, but when it breaks above the 35 resistance, it will confirm the anticipation.


TXN

Quarterly Earnings Surprises Estimate Actual Surprise(%)
Quarter Ending 12/2006 0.38 0.40 5.26%
Quarter Ending 09/2006 0.45 0.45 0.00%
Quarter Ending 06/2006 0.46 0.47 2.17%
Quarter Ending 03/2006 0.33 0.33 0.00%
Quarter Ending 12/2005 0.41 0.43 4.88%


Earnings Estimates # of Ests. Mean Est. High Est. Low Est. EPS Growth
Quarter Ending 03/2007 31 0.31 0.32 0.30 -5.38%
Quarter Ending 06/2007 29 0.37 0.41 0.33 -21.72%
Year Ending 12/2007 33 1.57 1.82 1.39 -4.59%
Year Ending 12/2008 28 1.89 2.18 1.53 19.81%



~~~



Qs targeting $50, May 2001 resistance, with successful breakout of $SOX/SMH.

As shown on the monthly chart, Qs has already borken out of resistance at Dec 2001 high heading to May 2001 resistance.

With successful breakout of $SOX/SMH and with the global bullish sentiment, $SSEC as an example, Qs will see $50.



http://stockcharts.c...86237&r=691.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 23 April 2007 - 10:43 AM.

[Russ]

This is likely to be a problem, as has been posted on Teaparty's post. It is also Eric Hadik's forcasted high date today.

[Trend-Signals]

This is likely to be a problem, as has been posted on Teaparty's post. It is also Eric Hadik's forcasted high date today.

Markets are at resistances as shown on these charts which posted since the 3/5 & 3/14 double bottom call with "Breakout Retest" Formation. At that time, not many believed that market has reversed and, furthermore, will trade up this far.

I do not believe that we are topped at here even though markets are trading at resistances including DOW 13000.

We can be 100% sure only with hindsight.



http://www.stockchar...09398&r=374.png
http://www.stockchar...77535&r=859.png
http://www.stockchar...40300&r=617.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&i=p73797548221&a=79285156&r=517.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22648394504&a=76929034&r=579.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&i=p49229126946&a=78987374&r=825.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p31631774778&a=76966992&r=329.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&i=p72794457382&a=76929550&r=647.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p21609042622&a=76909044&r=764.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&i=p53935525265&a=77295648&r=218.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 23 April 2007 - 01:15 PM.

[Russ]

TS, Your trendlines on the daily spx are not drawn off of the major lows as mine are. I think those trendlines are speaking volumes...which is also showing problems as can be seen on the PVO. The symetry of those lines running right into today's high a powerful pattern. In addition to Eric Hadik's cycle prediction that today would be an important high. Vix also looks to be on the verge of breaking out. Russ

[Trend-Signals]

TS,

Your trendlines on the daily spx are not drawn off of the major lows as mine are. I think those trendlines are speaking volumes...which is also showing problems as can be seen on the PVO. The symetry of those lines running right into today's high a powerful pattern. In addition to Eric Hadik's cycle prediction that today would be an important high. Vix also looks to be on the verge of breaking out.

Russ

My market call is not only based on trendline. As I called previous market tops and bottoms, my anticipation is based on my market analysis on several other factors.

I do not know who Eric is and have never read his comments and if he helps you that is fine.

When I called Jun-Jul 2006 bottom, I posted VIX breakout analysis, therefore, I am fully aware of the fact.

I also posted the second VIX breakout.

Not many believed when I called the bottoms at that time, Jun-Jul 2006 and Mar 2007 bottoms as did before. Nothing convinced me that market has topped yet.

Will see...

[fib_1618]

Your trendlines on the daily spx are not drawn off of the major lows as mine are.

Russ...check the fifth chart in the sequence, plus she provides the probable idea based on the daily volume characteristics in chart 6.

Fib