3 replies to this topic

[nimblebear]

This may be unlikely, but I am curious as to what anyone thinks about the possibility of the gold shares and gold decoupling from the general market in the near future. (i.e. Gold up, general market down.) Considering this possibility with the action in the dollar. The market has done very well with a declining dollar, but that is with it remaining above 80. If it goes below 80, this could start rattling some folks, and begin a foreign run from the US. Gold keeps hitting resistance, and it seems some people think it will go down very shortly. This looks too obvious. The general market bias up seems the path of least resistance. By now, I would expect a number of shorts have been scorched by the action the past month because every dip since 2003 has nailed them. They have to be by now.

[TechSkeptic]

I have read there are historical examples of gold and gold shares decoupling from the overall stock markets. But the trend has been that they moved together, and while the gold sector has at times outperformed the general market over the last few years, it has seldom moved directly opposite, as both have benefitted from liquidity and suffered at times when it was lacking. Remember that probabilities dictate that an existing trend will continue (until it doesn't). If there were to be a decoupling, it would more likely be in the metal itself, as gold stocks are almost invariably pulled down with a general market downturn simply by the fact that they are stocks.

[fib_1618]

This may be unlikely, but I am curious as to what anyone thinks about the possibility of the gold shares and gold decoupling from the general market in the near future. (i.e. Gold up, general market down.)

This has happened many times before in the past but only for short periods of time.

Looking at the XAU and PM A/D lines this past weekend does not suggest this scenario at this time.

Again, your patience is needed during this "pause to refresh" period.

Fib

[cgnx]

I would bet the gold based shares to at least outperform in both up and down markets. Although it is nearly impossible to fight a strong down tape, if any group has a shot it will be the gold sector. The fact that gold shares are imo under-owned and are held by strong hands will be a favorable condition. It is my opinion that the group of investors holding such shares is growing in number, but it has started from a very small base. This is early stage bull market. Sure anything can happen. I've learned from my past not to trade out of a position I think is headed alot higher. I'd hate like hell to miss this boat. I mean, I'd hate to pay twice as much for the shares I have today. But for those who try, GL to ya.