7 replies to this topic

[NAV]

The dip buyers are trained. The tape has been mostly controlled the last few days by the MA based traders. Everytime the market has moved to one of the key hourly EMAs, the dip has been bought. Today we sliced thru layers of key EMAs on hourly in the face of an ugly intraday A/D line - the dip just got more aggresively bought. Message is - the more ugly the tape, more aggresively, it needs to be bought. While the market kepps going nowhere despite these dip buying frenzies. Exhaustion ?? One of these days, these dip buyers will find NIRVANA We'll know soon. Added to my NQ shorts at 1874. Avg cost 1864. Fully short now. My pain threshold is now not too far away

Edited by NAV, 24 April 2007 - 01:33 PM.

[jjc]

The dip buyers are trained. The tape has been mostly controlled the last few days by the MA based traders. Everytime the market has moved to one of the key hourly EMAs, the dip has been bought. Today we sliced thru layers of key EMAs on hourly in the face of an ugly intraday A/D line - the dip just got more aggresively bought. Message is - the more ugly the tape, more aggresively, it needs to be bought. While the market kepps going nowhere despite these dip buying frenzies. Exhaustion ?? One of these days, these dip buyers will find NIRVANA We'll know soon.

Added to my NQ shorts at 1874. Avg cost 1864. Fully short now. My pain threshold is now not too far away

Nav,
Don't take this the wrong way... Just trying to share some signals.

Some of the things that told me this morning was not going to be a strong trend down:
1) The small gap; not typical (up or down) of a trend day.
2) Non-confirmation by all of the indices.
3) pre-market futures volume
4) rsi(14) of vix on 30min bar; 68.97 on open; over 70 by 10:30.

Feel free to add to the list;

[NAV]

The dip buyers are trained. The tape has been mostly controlled the last few days by the MA based traders. Everytime the market has moved to one of the key hourly EMAs, the dip has been bought. Today we sliced thru layers of key EMAs on hourly in the face of an ugly intraday A/D line - the dip just got more aggresively bought. Message is - the more ugly the tape, more aggresively, it needs to be bought. While the market kepps going nowhere despite these dip buying frenzies. Exhaustion ?? One of these days, these dip buyers will find NIRVANA We'll know soon.

Added to my NQ shorts at 1874. Avg cost 1864. Fully short now. My pain threshold is now not too far away

Nav,
Don't take this the wrong way... Just trying to share some signals.

Some of the things that told me this morning was not going to be a strong trend down:
1) The small gap; not typical (up or down) of a trend day.
2) Non-confirmation by all of the indices.
3) pre-market futures volume
4) rsi(14) of vix on 30min bar; 68.97 on open; over 70 by 10:30.

Feel free to add to the list;

jjc,

I hear ya. But i have made it clear that i am trying a swing trade here and not a daytrade. If it was a daytrade, i would have at least taken partial profits on that morning dip. Again the day ain't over yet !

Good luck to you.

P.S. I rarely post my day trades here.

Edited by NAV, 24 April 2007 - 02:01 PM.

[jjc]

The dip buyers are trained. The tape has been mostly controlled the last few days by the MA based traders. Everytime the market has moved to one of the key hourly EMAs, the dip has been bought. Today we sliced thru layers of key EMAs on hourly in the face of an ugly intraday A/D line - the dip just got more aggresively bought. Message is - the more ugly the tape, more aggresively, it needs to be bought. While the market kepps going nowhere despite these dip buying frenzies. Exhaustion ?? One of these days, these dip buyers will find NIRVANA We'll know soon.

Added to my NQ shorts at 1874. Avg cost 1864. Fully short now. My pain threshold is now not too far away

Nav,
Don't take this the wrong way... Just trying to share some signals.

Some of the things that told me this morning was not going to be a strong trend down:
1) The small gap; not typical (up or down) of a trend day.
2) Non-confirmation by all of the indices.
3) pre-market futures volume
4) rsi(14) of vix on 30min bar; 68.97 on open; over 70 by 10:30.

Feel free to add to the list;

jjc,

I hear ya. But i have made it clear that i am trying a swing trade here and not a daytrade. If it was a daytrade, i would have at least taken partial profits on that morning dip. Again the day ain't over yet !

Good luck to you.

P.S. I rarely post my day trades here.

No, No. Your missing the point. The dip buyers saw what I saw; No large scale institutional selling;
Not that it won't come just that it was not present this morning. If you look at who is speaking this week
chances are there is some selling scheduled; In my mind your trade is perfectly valid.

and Good Luck to you too.

[NAV]

The dip buyers are trained. The tape has been mostly controlled the last few days by the MA based traders. Everytime the market has moved to one of the key hourly EMAs, the dip has been bought. Today we sliced thru layers of key EMAs on hourly in the face of an ugly intraday A/D line - the dip just got more aggresively bought. Message is - the more ugly the tape, more aggresively, it needs to be bought. While the market kepps going nowhere despite these dip buying frenzies. Exhaustion ?? One of these days, these dip buyers will find NIRVANA We'll know soon.

Added to my NQ shorts at 1874. Avg cost 1864. Fully short now. My pain threshold is now not too far away

Nav,
Don't take this the wrong way... Just trying to share some signals.

Some of the things that told me this morning was not going to be a strong trend down:
1) The small gap; not typical (up or down) of a trend day.
2) Non-confirmation by all of the indices.
3) pre-market futures volume
4) rsi(14) of vix on 30min bar; 68.97 on open; over 70 by 10:30.

Feel free to add to the list;

jjc,

I hear ya. But i have made it clear that i am trying a swing trade here and not a daytrade. If it was a daytrade, i would have at least taken partial profits on that morning dip. Again the day ain't over yet !

Good luck to you.

P.S. I rarely post my day trades here.

No, No. Your missing the point. The dip buyers saw what I saw; No large scale institutional selling;
Not that it won't come just that it was not present this morning. If you look at who is speaking this week
chances are there is some selling scheduled; In my mind your trade is perfectly valid.

and Good Luck to you too.

jjc,

My point is those who buy dips at this stage of the swing cycle against nasty A/D lines and breaking of EMA supports are typically daytraders, who will exit in a heart beat. Swing trading is all about identifying swing exhaustion points and scaling in, when the odds stack up. That's all was my point. If they gap-up huge and start churning my bowels, like someone posted earlier, i will have to eat my humble pie and exit. I guess we both are ageeing with each other

BTW, just curious as to what your indicators say from now into close ?

Edited by NAV, 24 April 2007 - 02:14 PM.

[arbman]

NAV, I agree with you, not only they should clean all of the short stops before pulling it down, but also there is no other way these dip buyers will hold onto their positions on the way down too. Perhaps, this is it, but I'd rather see the end of April first, I doubt the boys will ruin this long monthly candle...

[jjc]

The dip buyers are trained. The tape has been mostly controlled the last few days by the MA based traders. Everytime the market has moved to one of the key hourly EMAs, the dip has been bought. Today we sliced thru layers of key EMAs on hourly in the face of an ugly intraday A/D line - the dip just got more aggresively bought. Message is - the more ugly the tape, more aggresively, it needs to be bought. While the market kepps going nowhere despite these dip buying frenzies. Exhaustion ?? One of these days, these dip buyers will find NIRVANA We'll know soon.

Added to my NQ shorts at 1874. Avg cost 1864. Fully short now. My pain threshold is now not too far away

Nav,
Don't take this the wrong way... Just trying to share some signals.

Some of the things that told me this morning was not going to be a strong trend down:
1) The small gap; not typical (up or down) of a trend day.
2) Non-confirmation by all of the indices.
3) pre-market futures volume
4) rsi(14) of vix on 30min bar; 68.97 on open; over 70 by 10:30.

Feel free to add to the list;

jjc,

I hear ya. But i have made it clear that i am trying a swing trade here and not a daytrade. If it was a daytrade, i would have at least taken partial profits on that morning dip. Again the day ain't over yet !

Good luck to you.

P.S. I rarely post my day trades here.

No, No. Your missing the point. The dip buyers saw what I saw; No large scale institutional selling;
Not that it won't come just that it was not present this morning. If you look at who is speaking this week
chances are there is some selling scheduled; In my mind your trade is perfectly valid.

and Good Luck to you too.

jjc,

My point is those who buy dips at this stage of the swing cycle against nasty A/D lines and breaking of EMA supports are typically daytraders, who will exit in a heart beat. Swing trading is all about identifying swing exhaustion points and scaling in, when the odds stack up. That's all was my point. If they gap-up huge and start churning my bowels, like someone posted earlier, i will have to eat my humble pie and exit. I guess we both are ageeing with each other

BTW, just curious as to what your indicators say from now into close ?

We should trade down from here, but not big. We are filling out a volume dist around 1486-1487.

[kc135a]

The dip buyers are trained. The tape has been mostly controlled the last few days by the MA based traders. Everytime the market has moved to one of the key hourly EMAs, the dip has been bought. Today we sliced thru layers of key EMAs on hourly in the face of an ugly intraday A/D line - the dip just got more aggresively bought. Message is - the more ugly the tape, more aggresively, it needs to be bought. While the market kepps going nowhere despite these dip buying frenzies. Exhaustion ?? One of these days, these dip buyers will find NIRVANA We'll know soon.

Added to my NQ shorts at 1874. Avg cost 1864. Fully short now. My pain threshold is now not too far away

Nav

I am with you but not looking for much down short term.

I am working the DOW and projection up to 13033, then down to about 12800, with a final gasp up to 13368 by May Opex. That should be the top setting up a solid correction down into July.

Currently short DIA July 133 puts looking to cover around the 12800 area.

KC