7 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

Strong GDP > Fed may raise rate; Weak GDP > Fed can Not cut the rate because of the dollar and inflation problem.

[relax]

What inflation problem?
And low dollar - well it's helping US exports

So do not see the case against cutting rates

They should cut now while JPY is weak

Strong GDP > Fed may raise rate; Weak GDP > Fed can Not cut the rate because of the dollar and inflation problem.

[redfoliage2]

What inflation problem?
And low dollar - well it's helping US exports

So do not see the case against cutting rates

They should cut now while JPY is weak

Strong GDP > Fed may raise rate; Weak GDP > Fed can Not cut the rate because of the dollar and inflation problem.

You and I already got a 5% cut in salary since January because of the dinimishing dollar. No inflation? Did you check your electricity bills? Your health insurance bills? What is the gas price? The meat price?

[relax]

Agree!

But one thing is reality and another thing is the game of the stock marked

Currently it's all about the game of the stocks

reality will catch up at one point

What inflation problem?
And low dollar - well it's helping US exports

So do not see the case against cutting rates

They should cut now while JPY is weak

Strong GDP > Fed may raise rate; Weak GDP > Fed can Not cut the rate because of the dollar and inflation problem.

You and I already got a 5% cut in salary since January because of the dinimishing dollar. No inflation? Did you check your electricity bills? Your health insurance bills? What is the gas price? The meat price?

[redfoliage2]

[quote name='redfoliage2' post='285412' date='Apr 27 2007, 07:23 AM']
Strong GDP > Fed may raise rate; Weak GDP > Fed can Not cut the rate because of the dollar and inflation problem.
[/quote]
[/quote]
You and I already got a 5% cut in salary since January because of the dinimishing dollar. No inflation? Did you check your electricity bills? Your health insurance bills? What is the gas price? The meat price?
[/quote]
GDP rose by 1.3% last quarter, missing estimates.

[redfoliage2]

[quote name='redfoliage2' date='Apr 27 2007, 08:39 AM' post='285426']
[quote name='redfoliage2' post='285412' date='Apr 27 2007, 07:23 AM']
Strong GDP > Fed may raise rate; Weak GDP > Fed can Not cut the rate because of the dollar and inflation problem.
[/quote]
[/quote]
You and I already got a 5% cut in salary since January because of the dinimishing dollar. No inflation? Did you check your electricity bills? Your health insurance bills? What is the gas price? The meat price?
[/quote]
GDP rose by 1.3% last quarter, missing estimates.
[/quote]
Cramers may spin for a rate cut, but in reality it's almost impossible for the reasons stated earlier.

[arbman]

This is going to get worse, the housing is weighting on the GDP just like it was adding during the early bull market via the manufacturing and financing profits, now it is taking them all back, very cyclical and dependent on the rates... The bull market will eventually come to a rest until the end of the summer from here, however the weekly breath momentum got very strong unlike the prior terminal rallies, so a sell off should be bought and whether the tech can gain and keep a leadership to replace the loss in the GDP by the housing slump is to be seen. I strongly doubt about the latter at the moment, so there will be most likely some rate cuts later this year after a severe stock market correction in summer... The really critical issue is the USD as you guys also pointed out and the Fed decided to push it down further all of a sudden in April. This is the only reason the earnings reports were better than expected a bit for Q1, imho, and more importantly squeezed the shorts big time... - kisa

[arbman]

So, my view from here is the moment the USD reverses up next time, you should know that both the liquidity and the earnings are going straight down...