5 replies to this topic

[skott]

Does anyone have stats on this phenomenon? I think I read something like it has worked the last 50 years. Sell in May, I get that but how long do you stay away? Until Sept I suppose.

[relax]

Always interesting with this comment:



"the May 10 square of Jupiter and Uranus. Keep in mind that Uranus also rules earthquakes and tornadoes.

This will be the second passage of the Jupiter-Uranus square, due to the retrograde of Jupiter. The first passage was January 22, which coincided with the 4-year cycle trough in Crude Oil and the yearly high in Dollar-Yen, and a primary cycle trough in Treasuries, all within one week. Could something big like that culminate again within one week of May 10? Sure it could, especially when you consider that this is the second (or retrograde) passage of this aspect. The last time we had a second (or retrograde) passage of an aspect between Jupiter and Uranus was May 5, 2006. Within one week, the DJIA topped out and commenced a 1000+ point decline into mid-June. Gold and Silver also experienced 25-year highs within a week a May 5, 2006."

Does anyone have stats on this phenomenon? I think I read something like it has worked the last 50 years. Sell in May, I get that but how long do you stay away? Until Sept I suppose.

[skott]

Merriman is just like the horoscopes you read in the paper. Say something enough times and say it vaguely enough and you can claim you were right. He said some similar things the last few weeks.

[robo]

Does anyone have stats on this phenomenon? I think I read something like it has worked the last 50 years. Sell in May, I get that but how long do you stay away? Until Sept I suppose.

Sy Harding has some data on this phenomenon with charts.

Comment from link below:

We began by back-testing 100 years of market data with the goal of determining the exact days of the year, rather than the month, that on average would produce the best entry and exit dates for investing according to the market’s seasonality.



http://www.streetsma...rt.com/sts.html

Edited by robo, 29 April 2007 - 09:49 PM.

[pdx5]

Robo----thanks for that link. As for the tax consequences of yearly trades, the longer you postpone taking profits, the bigger tax shock you will get when eventually you sell. That happened to me in 2006 when I took capital gains on my 4 year buy and hold stuff which pushed me into a much higher tax bracket than normal for me. In retrospect I should have used the STS and paid taxes each year in a smaller tax bracket.

[skott]

I found a couple articles

http://www.marketwat...dist=TNMostRead

and a bullish, it's different this time article

marketwatch