7 replies to this topic

[NAV]

The market action has been defying the internals, as the NYSE summation index rolls over and the NYSE MCO still hovering below zero. Yet the price keeps creeping up. If there's one set of folks who have been consistently right the last few days, it's the Equity option folks. The action looks more and more like an IT top forming around these levels. However, the price has not broken any key ST or IT pivots. So it's hard to short this market at these levels, until we see a sharp break. I am mostly daytrading the long side without a clue as to when that top would come. Tough to be a bull here. Tough to be a bear here.

[jjc]

The market action has been defying the internals, as the NYSE summation index rolls over and the NYSE MCO still hovering below zero. Yet the price keeps creeping up. If there's one set of folks who have been consistently right the last few days, it's the Equity option folks. The action looks more and more like an IT top forming around these levels. However, the price has not broken any key ST or IT pivots. So it's hard to short this market at these levels, until we see a sharp break.

I am mostly daytrading the long side without a clue as to when that top would come. Tough to be a bull here. Tough to be a bear here.

Hint as to why the Equity option folks are right:

http://www.traders-t...?...c=69393&hl=

Are you short into Monday?
There is a pattern you might want to research....
http://www.traders-t...?...c=69364&hl=

That FED pretty clever:
http://www.traders-t...?...c=69258&hl=

[NAV]

The market action has been defying the internals, as the NYSE summation index rolls over and the NYSE MCO still hovering below zero. Yet the price keeps creeping up. If there's one set of folks who have been consistently right the last few days, it's the Equity option folks. The action looks more and more like an IT top forming around these levels. However, the price has not broken any key ST or IT pivots. So it's hard to short this market at these levels, until we see a sharp break.

I am mostly daytrading the long side without a clue as to when that top would come. Tough to be a bull here. Tough to be a bear here.

Hint as to why the Equity option folks are right:

http://www.traders-t...?...c=69393&hl=

Are you short into Monday?
There is a pattern you might want to research....
http://www.traders-t...?...c=69364&hl=

That FED pretty clever:
http://www.traders-t...?...c=69258&hl=

Your links don't work.

[jjc]

The market action has been defying the internals, as the NYSE summation index rolls over and the NYSE MCO still hovering below zero. Yet the price keeps creeping up. If there's one set of folks who have been consistently right the last few days, it's the Equity option folks. The action looks more and more like an IT top forming around these levels. However, the price has not broken any key ST or IT pivots. So it's hard to short this market at these levels, until we see a sharp break.

I am mostly daytrading the long side without a clue as to when that top would come. Tough to be a bull here. Tough to be a bear here.

Hint as to why the Equity option folks are right:

http://www.traders-t...?...c=69393&hl=

Are you short into Monday?
There is a pattern you might want to research....
http://www.traders-t...?...c=69364&hl=

That FED pretty clever:
http://www.traders-t...?...c=69258&hl=

Your links don't work.

SEC Approves Relaxing Margin Requirements -- January 10, 2007

New portfolio margin account rules will go into effect in April 2007

Margin requirements--what's changing?

The new portfolio margining rules relax requirements that have been in place for decades. Existing rules base initial margin requirements on set percentages for specific types of securities or strategies. For example, to buy stocks on margin, an investor would have to deposit 50% of the value of that stock in the margin account. These percentages do not take into account whether the risk of one type of investment helps offset the risk of a related security.

By permitting portfolio margin requirements to be applied across multiple types of assets and tying initial margin requirements to a security's historical price performance, the new rules should make trading on margin more accessible to a broader range of investors.

On December 12, 2006, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a new method of calculating margin requirements for options trading in brokerage accounts.


Operation Date: 04/18/2007
Operation Type: Outright TIPS Purchase
Release Time: 10:45 AM
Close Time: 11:15 AM
Settlement Date: 04/19/2007
Maturity/Call Date Range: 01/15/2008 - 04/15/2032
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $560
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $6,159

Operation Date: 04/10/2007
Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time: 10:45 AM
Close Time: 11:15 AM
Settlement Date: 04/11/2007
Maturity/Call Date Range: 11/15/2015 - 11/15/2021
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $835
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $10,492

Operation Date: 04/09/2007
Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time: 10:30 AM
Close Time: 11:00 AM
Settlement Date: 04/10/2007
Maturity/Call Date Range: 08/15/2011 - 08/15/2015
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $1,011
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $10,149

[.Blizzard]

Hard to short this market? You have +/- 50/70 point on the table in a couple of weeks and 150/180 point in a few months The best short opportunity this year after the february drop ...if you consider the risk/reward...I would say... - 1/2% stop loss... to catch a 10% (or more) of downside

Edited by .Blizzard, 03 May 2007 - 08:27 AM.

[jjc]

Hard to short this market?

You have +/- 50/70 point on the table in a couple of weeks and 150/180 point in a few months

The best short opportunity this year after the february drop

...if you consider the risk/reward...I would say... - 2% stop loss... to catch a 10% (or more) of downside

I'm not saying its hard to short this market... I'm saying that there are proxy markets out there and
it's hard to see how people are leaning from historicly reliable statistics.. The only people who know really are likely to know are the Insitutions involved with the CDS's (and the FED who is lending the money out).

Hard to short this market?

You have +/- 50/70 point on the table in a couple of weeks and 150/180 point in a few months

The best short opportunity this year after the february drop

...if you consider the risk/reward...I would say... - 2% stop loss... to catch a 10% (or more) of downside

I'm not saying its hard to short this market... I'm saying that there are proxy markets out there and
it's hard to see how people are leaning from historicly reliable statistics.. The only people who know really are likely to know are the Insitutions involved with the CDS's (and the FED who is lending the money out).

We should see 1500 June ES before the end of the day.

[Tor]

The market action has been defying the internals, as the NYSE summation index rolls over and the NYSE MCO still hovering below zero. Yet the price keeps creeping up. If there's one set of folks who have been consistently right the last few days, it's the Equity option folks. The action looks more and more like an IT top forming around these levels. However, the price has not broken any key ST or IT pivots. So it's hard to short this market at these levels, until we see a sharp break.

I am mostly daytrading the long side without a clue as to when that top would come. Tough to be a bull here. Tough to be a bear here.

Well said NAV.

I have my bull line in the sand trendlines in place.

Am sticking with the trend (up), whilew the sohrt interest remains so high and the fear does too. It doesnt feel comfoprtable.

If we get a reversal, I ditch my bull allegiance for the current time, despite my longer term bullish views.

[bln]

Yep, there was a big POMO yesterday, 1.3 bil of fresh printed money finding its way into stocks and other assets. No surprise the market did go up yesterday and possible today too. Anyhow it will be interesting to watch how the core internals will behave next days.