7 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

notice the 30 day offsets........ready to support accelaration......thus any reaction into www may be muted.....or a non event on friday the london 100 index gapped above its 87.5 retrace off its ATH and appears to be starting its meltup stage....... the hang seng appears to be on the verge of a massive upside explosion along with the shanghai index.....

Edited by da_cheif, 04 May 2007 - 11:28 PM.

[fib_1618]

notice the 30 day offsets........ready to support acceleration......thus any reaction into www may be muted.....or a non event

NYSE & PM Breadth Data

The equity price targets were generated by their respective breadth McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index readings over the last 45 days.

Talk to you in June.

Fib

[Tor]

notice the 30 day offsets........ready to support accelaration......thus any reaction into www may be muted.....or a non event

on friday the london 100 index gapped above its 87.5 retrace off its ATH and appears to be starting its meltup stage.......

the hang seng appears to be on the verge of a massive upside explosion along with the shanghai index.....

Be careful Cheif - interest rate decisions next week from the BoE, and lower highs on the BSE already in place, may change things somewhat.

Good trading to you, follow the trend.

[da_cheif]

notice the 30 day offsets........ready to support accelaration......thus any reaction into www may be muted.....or a non event

on friday the london 100 index gapped above its 87.5 retrace off its ATH and appears to be starting its meltup stage.......

the hang seng appears to be on the verge of a massive upside explosion along with the shanghai index.....

Be careful Cheif - interest rate decisions next week from the BoE, and lower highs on the BSE already in place, may change things somewhat.

Good trading to you, follow the trend.

careful of what......i want bonds to crash........

[Tor]

notice the 30 day offsets........ready to support accelaration......thus any reaction into www may be muted.....or a non event

on friday the london 100 index gapped above its 87.5 retrace off its ATH and appears to be starting its meltup stage.......

the hang seng appears to be on the verge of a massive upside explosion along with the shanghai index.....

Be careful Cheif - interest rate decisions next week from the BoE, and lower highs on the BSE already in place, may change things somewhat.

Good trading to you, follow the trend.

careful of what......i want bonds to crash........

Cheif, the leading sectors in the rally since the March low have all been defensive. Telecom services, healthcare and utilities.

I would say it isnt as clear cut as you suggest right here, despite my long term bullish views.

More details below. We know one thing, the marcos suck. But fair enough if this turns out to be a technically driven run up, then so be it.I think right here have to just trade what you see, opinions wont pay, even though one should bear them in mind.

Trade well.

One heck of a “defensive rally” in stocks: Since the February 27 low,
outside of energy, three of the best performing sectors have been utilities
(+9.7%), health care (+8.9%) and telecom services (+9.2%). What type of
“cyclical” developments are equities pricing in exactly when utilities are the
second best performing sector, followed by health care? These sectors tend
to do well in economic slowdowns – so maybe, despite the headline indices,
the action beneath the surface is actually quite consistent with our view of
lingering economic malaise in the USA. The bottom performers during the
rally have been consumer cyclicals, which have underperformed the broad
market by 400 basis points – that represents the stock market's feeling of
that 70% share of the US economy otherwise known as the resilient
consumer. And the other two bottom performers have been materials,
another economic-sensitive, and financials – the latter underpeforming since
late February by 250bps in an environment of broadly stable bond yields.
Could that be telling us something about the stock market's view towards
credit quality? Rallies that are not led by financials or consumer
discretionary, but instead by utilities and health care, are rallies that don’t
generally point in the way of economic reacceleration.

One more. Good probability we are in recession. In 1987 while in recession, the market did keep going up, I accept.

While equities have been making new highs, and all we hear these days
are phrases like "global decoupling" and "paradigm shifts", we aren't
ready just yet to throw away our history textbooks. The bottom line is
that we have just come off the fourth consecutive quarter of sub-3%
sequential real GDP growth – 2.6% in 2006Q2, 2.0% in 2006Q3, 2.5% in
2006Q4 and now an estimated 1.3% pace in 2007Q1 – on top of that,
Monday's soft consumer spending report for March gives consumer spending
a flat hand-off to Q2, and so it now looks like current quarter growth is
coming in at 2.0%. So we have 2.6%; 2.0%; 2.5%; 1.3% and now 2.0%.
Five quarters of sub-3% growth is highly, highly unusual for the USA. This
multi-quarter trend of below-potential growth is not sustainable – something
is going to break in one direction, that much we are sure. The historical
record tells us that not once in the past 60 years did GDP growth come in
five quarters sequentially below 3% for each quarter absent a recessionary
condition in the economy – such a pattern has only happened in recessions,
in the lead-up to recessions, or in the periods of post-recessionary doubledips.
Here are the periods in the past when we saw four quarters or more of
sub-3% growth, quarter-in, quarter-out: 2000-2003 (recession started in
2001Q1); 1990-1991 (recession started in 1990Q3); 1981-1982 (recession
started in 1981Q3); 1979-1980 (recession started in 1980); 1974-1975
(recession started in 1973Q4); 1969-1970 (recession started in 1969Q4);
1960-1961 (recession began in 1960Q2); 1953-1954 (recession started in
1953Q2); 1948-1949 (recession began in 1948Q4). All we have to say is
that it had better be different this time.

[da_cheif]

yawwnn.........u shud pay more attention to the stock market instead of the rest of that crapola....snort

[relax]

Very interesting with the GDP - absolutely not Yawn

Just like looking for patterns in our charts, we can look for patterns in the data

And the pattern indicates that 5 subsequent quaters of sub 3 per cent growth will most likely lead to a recession

For trading purposes who cares - but for me it supports my view that the market is doing wave 5 of wave 5

Would be interesting to look at the charts and see how long it has taken for the markets to crash after data for the fifth quarter of sub 3 per cent growth has been released, that is combining GDP data (as vertical lines on the charts) with the technicals

notice the 30 day offsets........ready to support accelaration......thus any reaction into www may be muted.....or a non event

on friday the london 100 index gapped above its 87.5 retrace off its ATH and appears to be starting its meltup stage.......

the hang seng appears to be on the verge of a massive upside explosion along with the shanghai index.....

Be careful Cheif - interest rate decisions next week from the BoE, and lower highs on the BSE already in place, may change things somewhat.

Good trading to you, follow the trend.

careful of what......i want bonds to crash........

Cheif, the leading sectors in the rally since the March low have all been defensive. Telecom services, healthcare and utilities.

I would say it isnt as clear cut as you suggest right here, despite my long term bullish views.

More details below. We know one thing, the marcos suck. But fair enough if this turns out to be a technically driven run up, then so be it.I think right here have to just trade what you see, opinions wont pay, even though one should bear them in mind.

Trade well.

One heck of a “defensive rally” in stocks: Since the February 27 low,
outside of energy, three of the best performing sectors have been utilities
(+9.7%), health care (+8.9%) and telecom services (+9.2%). What type of
“cyclical” developments are equities pricing in exactly when utilities are the
second best performing sector, followed by health care? These sectors tend
to do well in economic slowdowns – so maybe, despite the headline indices,
the action beneath the surface is actually quite consistent with our view of
lingering economic malaise in the USA. The bottom performers during the
rally have been consumer cyclicals, which have underperformed the broad
market by 400 basis points – that represents the stock market's feeling of
that 70% share of the US economy otherwise known as the resilient
consumer. And the other two bottom performers have been materials,
another economic-sensitive, and financials – the latter underpeforming since
late February by 250bps in an environment of broadly stable bond yields.
Could that be telling us something about the stock market's view towards
credit quality? Rallies that are not led by financials or consumer
discretionary, but instead by utilities and health care, are rallies that don’t
generally point in the way of economic reacceleration.

One more. Good probability we are in recession. In 1987 while in recession, the market did keep going up, I accept.

While equities have been making new highs, and all we hear these days
are phrases like "global decoupling" and "paradigm shifts", we aren't
ready just yet to throw away our history textbooks. The bottom line is
that we have just come off the fourth consecutive quarter of sub-3%
sequential real GDP growth – 2.6% in 2006Q2, 2.0% in 2006Q3, 2.5% in
2006Q4 and now an estimated 1.3% pace in 2007Q1 – on top of that,
Monday's soft consumer spending report for March gives consumer spending
a flat hand-off to Q2, and so it now looks like current quarter growth is
coming in at 2.0%. So we have 2.6%; 2.0%; 2.5%; 1.3% and now 2.0%.
Five quarters of sub-3% growth is highly, highly unusual for the USA. This
multi-quarter trend of below-potential growth is not sustainable – something
is going to break in one direction, that much we are sure. The historical
record tells us that not once in the past 60 years did GDP growth come in
five quarters sequentially below 3% for each quarter absent a recessionary
condition in the economy – such a pattern has only happened in recessions,
in the lead-up to recessions, or in the periods of post-recessionary doubledips.
Here are the periods in the past when we saw four quarters or more of
sub-3% growth, quarter-in, quarter-out: 2000-2003 (recession started in
2001Q1); 1990-1991 (recession started in 1990Q3); 1981-1982 (recession
started in 1981Q3); 1979-1980 (recession started in 1980); 1974-1975
(recession started in 1973Q4); 1969-1970 (recession started in 1969Q4);
1960-1961 (recession began in 1960Q2); 1953-1954 (recession started in
1953Q2); 1948-1949 (recession began in 1948Q4). All we have to say is
that it had better be different this time.

[SandStorm]

notice the 30 day offsets........ready to support accelaration......thus any reaction into www may be muted.....or a non event

on friday the london 100 index gapped above its 87.5 retrace off its ATH and appears to be starting its meltup stage.......

the hang seng appears to be on the verge of a massive upside explosion along with the shanghai index.....

Go superman go. I am with you. Bought a whole bunch of stocks Friday. I see no resistance; no clearly definable range top. Just about every market in the world is going up like gangbusters. I don't care what TA or FA says. The only right strategy now is directional long.