Edited by nimblebear, 07 May 2007 - 08:59 PM.
There'd be a lot more to talk about if the market started going down
#1
Posted 07 May 2007 - 08:54 PM
#2
Posted 07 May 2007 - 09:41 PM
Edited by thespookyone, 07 May 2007 - 09:46 PM.
#3
Posted 07 May 2007 - 10:12 PM
You'll have plenty to talk about, then, imho-by the end of the week.
When you speak of fundamentals are you refering to the latest wall st "rising earnings" snowjob? When you lower expectations the way they did into the quarter-of course they beat them. But, in reality, how did the growth this quarter compare to the last couple years in reality-UH OH. It seems very clear that institutions have TONS of cash sitting on the sidelines, so if "everyone" is bearish-who exactly bought this market-and drove it up? Or, maybe joe sixpack is tired of the poor breadth, that has the indexes flying-but his stocks still down? I don't think the market is ready to stop going up-but that it is ready to stop going up for now. Counting on the market going up with Vix rising is a very risky bet.
"Heck, even Buffet is saying subprime is a non event" To WHO? Builders seem to be feeling the heat, home prices are certainly not fresh, tons of possible buyers have been removed from the market, foreclosures are rampant-wonder if it is a "non event" to all those people losing their homes. If subprime is such a non event-why is congress talking bailouts-who needs em,subprime problems are a "non event". And the people holding all that bad paper-are they in the "Buffet camp", as well? Of course, at this point, perma bulls look at everything as a "non event"-like the recent GDP at 1.3 percent. I guess that rate of growth(and man is that dropping FAST) isn't a problem if you don't mind recession. Bulls also seem to think the carry trade will never unwind, as well. A dollar about to rise should speak pretty clearly to that notion. I love when folks comment that only gas and food prices are in an inflationary mode, which even if it were true ignores the fact that they are the two things we NEED to buy-and have a much higher marginal utility to us that what isn't inflating. You mentioned truck inflation, how about copper, steel, uranium,nickel, grains, orange juice, ect.,ect,ect? Tame? -surely you jest.
Thespookyone
First, my name is not Shirley , second I "jest" read this commentary which sums it up fairly well. Are you part of this "negativity bubble" too ?
"DJIA Hits Another Record into Final Hour on Lower Energy Prices and Buyout Speculation
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Medical longs, Semi longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, most sectors are rising and volume is below-average. Over the weekend, as usual, I read and heard numerous scary headlines despite the DJIA putting in its best showing in decades. Local papers had big headlines on the front of their business sections talking of a U.S. recession without even mentioning the Dow's record-shattering run. As well, around the web there was more depression comparisons and 20s crash talk. Finally, a recent Street.com column illustrates the prevailing sentiment among the many bears, in my opinion. David Tice of the Prudent Bear fund said, "We've never been more confident" and "I am as confident as ever that we are going to be right," in references to his belief in the market's impending 50% collapse. Even more telling, his fund is down 5% over the last decade including dividends, yet his fund sales are near their peak during the 2000-2003 market meltdown and his assets are at a new all-time high. The many bears still remain stunningly complacent, in my opinion. I continue to believe overall investor sentiment regarding U.S. stocks has never been worse in history with the DJIA at record highs. I view sentiment as closer to a major market bottom than a major market top. Sentiment gauges have been the best market-timing tools since the major bear market lows in 2002, in my opinion. I have noticed that the new bear catchword to describe the U.S. economy relative to the U.S. stock market is "disconnect." The market anticipates the future. In the current "U.S. negativity bubble" the thought that things could actually get better, not worse, isn't even considered. The mid-cycle slowdown in 1995 was much worse than the current one, yet stocks rose by double-digit percentages during that period as multiples expanded in anticipation of faster economic growth. The real "disconnect" is between the perception of investors regarding the long-term prospects for U.S. stocks and reality, in my opinion. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as lower energy prices and buyout speculation offset profit-taking and positioning ahead of likely weak retail sales reports.
Posted by: Gary / 3:12 PM" (Between The Hedges)
#4
Posted 07 May 2007 - 10:42 PM
Edited by thespookyone, 07 May 2007 - 10:44 PM.
#5
Posted 07 May 2007 - 10:49 PM
~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~
#6
Posted 08 May 2007 - 06:49 AM
But it ain't happening. Its literally impossible for this market to take a dive, based upon all the sentiment indicators, fundamentals, easy money, global growth, yada yada yada. Everyone is bearish based on the readings. AAII for one. Readings have never been this bearish when a market is making new historic highs like today. They are this bearish when the market has made a bottom, or is making a bottom.
It's impossible for the market to dive? You seem so certain. It's 7:45am and futures are dropping down fast.
The market has been up 25 out of the last 28 trading days... up over 1000 points in 6 weeks...
SHORT!
Edited by JAP, 08 May 2007 - 06:50 AM.