15 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

hi swanstkdh, I have no idea if we will break the HUI trendline in the coming days. Technically it certainly looks like it will happen, but whether it actually does is always another matter. As for the current decline from mid-April, it doesn't really seem that bad yet. The declines in 2002, 2004 and 2005 and last year, they were BAD! A really quick decline will come though if the HUI trendline is broken. SKI's "life run" is a 5+ day decline of 2+% per day. It has to occur with a specific run pattern, something like 2 up and then 5 or more down days. This is off the top of my head. I associate that type of decline with a large "C" wave correction, and the 5 or more down days as an extended 5th wave (very last wave down) in EW terms. Will we get that here this year? There is no guarantee. We could be in a situation where the HUI and XAU consolidate for the next two years (between HUI 400 - 270, XAU 170 - 115). I just don't know. BTW, the "life run" is so called because it gives birth to a new bull. Whereas a "death run" implies the opposite (ie. death of the bull). These life and death runs do not occur often. I am half expecting a trendline bounce, but I am not keen to play other than for a few hours and certainly not overnight. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 11 May 2007 - 06:39 AM.

[swanstkdh]

Thanks Silent for bringing focus. Could be some fun and profitable trades for a few hours. I am not keen on much of anything overnight. I know some are into sticking with trends but I see the volatility to much to live with overnight.

[prman]

Hope this query doesn't make you feel like you've opened Pandora's Box (if so, ignore). I'm trying to understand Hurst better and just read a brief analysis and comment to the effect that the HUI trades quite consistently within Hurst envelopes, which are now turning up, forecasting a rally. Can this outlook be accomodated in your analysis, which I favor for a number of reasons, or is this a case of misinterporetation or simply of radically different ways of seeing things?

[SilentOne]

prman, My analysis is based on the larger HUI Hurst cycles that I see. And I may not be right in my cyclic analysis of the HUI. I have just started my Hurst work on the HUI the last few months. From this point forward, simple TA is a better guide for short term trading. If the HUI LT trendline is broken (note: on a log chart it is about where I have drawn it on the previous chart) and does not provide a bounce, then the scenario I have laid out above will occur. It won't necessarily happen within a week, but it will happen. HUI 325 - 330 is the level to watch. Gold has a similar support level it is contending with as well. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 11 May 2007 - 08:30 AM.

[flyers&divers]

SilentOne, I was a rookie commodity broker in the early seventies when a field office of ContiCommodities (Continental Grain Co)in Memphis had a crew trained by Hurst himself. These guys have done amazing work and during the great bull market in commodities Hurst's cycle work worked liek charm. Imagine the team leader Maury Strauss calling out all the important FLD(future line of demarkation) crosses with targets live on the squawk box to all of our offices and we would see immediate followthrough on the board.? Needless to say that I was very pleased to see that Hurst's work survived and there are able followers and to see Aire to revive this on this board and see you and others join. I just have one question about FLD'd (which I consider a great concept because I can visualize support and resistance this way). Suppose in the current situation the price crosses a number of FLD's but does not follow through on the downside. Would Hurst consider it strength in this case or is it simply neutral. I am interested in this because in my understanding of the dynamics of price movement when a number of indicators trigger in a particular direction and there is no followthrough it means the normal flow of the market is interrupted by a greater opposing force and we have to take notice. I do not have aposition in the PM complex but I am looking to initiate one. Thanks in advance, F&D

[SilentOne]

errata



I said the 15, 30 and 60 week FLDs lie just below the HUI uptrendline. In fact, the 15 and 30 week sit just below as I described, but the 60 week is positioned near HUI 290 and will be starting its rise in about 2 weeks.

So there is a gap between the FLDs mentioned in the 315 to 290 level.

cheers,

john

Hi f&d,

Suppose in the current situation the price crosses a number of FLD's but does not follow through on the downside. Would Hurst consider it strength in this case or is it simply neutral.

With my understanding of Hurst, if downside FLD targets are undershot or overshot, it can be bullish and bearish respectively.

Bear in mind that we have not had an FLD signal on the larger weekly cycles that I am following (ie. price has not crossed the 15, or 30 FLDs). Until that occurs, we cannot talk about trendline breaks or downside targets.

I wish some other Hurst enthusiasts would chime in at TT. I have not finished the course and I still muddling my way through this HUI cyclic analysis.

cheers,

john