13 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Well, I been looking at this pretty close here, I could be wrong but I think the top was made on 5/7 on that light volume. We came back on 25% more volume and could not break the high. On the last turn date of 4/30, they flipped it back up, but if you notice they took it even lower breaking support before they turned it back up. This time we get an inside day on lighter volume. So in short I haven't completely given up the 5/10 turn date, if they make a new high here then it's out the window and we'll probably continue to run into 6/12 with the next possible turn date of 5/24. If we just blast up from here that's going to be parabolic terminal move...


I think we may open higher on Monday, but there's a better than 50% chance that Thursday's high volume low gets tested and we continue lower...


I was out most of the day on Friday in Silicon Valley, there are some good things cooking. VC's are looking to invest in new startups, companies are starting to hire again. Usually, in my experience, the old cycle ends after the new one starts in electronics. That may well be the case here.

Edited by SemiBizz, 12 May 2007 - 02:50 PM.

[CLK]

NVDA responded well to earnings. Weekly looks strong here. However, I can't take on too many positions.

[SemiBizz]

I looked at the weekly, not that impressive, the benchmark is the high volume high of 11/10/06, one can argue that good progress towards retesting high that was made this week. Logically however unless there's an overall uptick in volume in the weeks ahead that a bearish upthrust is likely . However, let me just say if all we get here is another flip/turn and we continue higher, this one is likely to be one of the birds that flies with it...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Edited by SemiBizz, 12 May 2007 - 03:51 PM.

[SandStorm]

SemiBizz, do you think it's time to bottom fish AMD yet? It has been acting well since they released another horrible "earnings." Thank you.

[SemiBizz]

I don't like it yet... Like to see a follow up on the sign of strength (4/24), you'll notice we lost momentum (volume) as we broke that high on Friday... Looks like a consolidation will ensue.

[crestdorf]

I expected 5/10 to be a cycle low. Evidence of this: 1) 3 significaant -$tick readings in the afternoon which often mark a puke low in aa bull trend 2) A test of significant ma's in several indices and on multiple time frames which held 3) A follow through am gap which the floor could not fill in the first hour of trade and resulted in a trend day. Personally I cannot see SPX all time highs not getting a test prior to a correction. At the same time, I will not be holding overnight positions much longer. Leaning long in the day and flat at night. All fwiw....

[SemiBizz]

Losing Momentum...

Edited by SemiBizz, 14 May 2007 - 09:30 AM.

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



There's a lilttle price rejection going on here at 2570 level. Now this morning could just be a consolidation. The key will be what happens at the .50 level of this retracement around the 2561 pivot area. If we break through again to a new high, the target is 2609, if we break down to test lower the next area of support is 2545 then 2539.


The 3 min chart trend just turned up for the first time since Friday.


And... What we have here is VOLUME OFF THE TOP..:

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Edited by SemiBizz, 14 May 2007 - 09:50 AM.

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



The strength in these two imply to me that this is a consolidation not a wipeout.

[SemiBizz]

Volume is light today overall Nasdaq. 2545 target here, 2539 next support. Should we test lower we can spring off one of these two or test the 5/10 low of 2533.... I think if we're truly going lower on this light volume I"d expect a spring off one of the support points, a test of higher pivots 2555 or 2561 before we can conclude anything. We could be forging ground for a higher volume down day tomorrow.