12 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

there's been more than one discussion about the difficulty in calling tops and i've often had to explain how Hurst's cyclic model theory describes a reason why. that being said, price action of some indexes do seem to be showing a rounding over type action typical at cyclic tops. SPX has achieved the last price projection generated of 1516 +/-15 pts and has not been able to break out of this area. RUT has started a minor trend down. a nominal 10 wk cycle low is due very soon, but i'm looking for signs that the highs might be in for some indices until we get past the nominal 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows due mid/late july. that's only about 10 wks away. aside from big cap SPX and INDU, everything seems sluggish including breadth. still short june er's.

[BearItch]

Is it typical at cyclic tops to see this type of action with respect to one average, in this case the Dow. It is the Nasdaq in 2000 reincarnated for now. It keeps going higher or levitates while everything else does nothing or declines. The Dow is on crack and the market seems to be supported by its action. It seems the rest of the market is ready to give some back but the market will not do so until the Dow is done. How has opex week tended to impacte 10 week cycles in your view? Do you have the dates of the past say, half dozen, 10 week (SPX) cycle lows at your fingertips? I want to look at them closely. Thanks

[BearItch]

Aire: Yes, a look at breadth of the NYSE when compared to the price action of the Dow is quite a sight.

[arbman]

Aire, aren't you going to cover for the 10 wk cycle low strength ahead for next week?!? My cyclical crap that pales next to your experience actually says "cover and marginally go long!", and I did... I will reshort at a higher level, but I really do think that the highs will be retested of some sort... Thanks for your explanation and I will get back to you about the implied volatilities vs actual volatility in picking the tops. I have also a very nice new volume tool now that I am planning to share in separating out the trending vs consolidation part of the daily bars. I was never satisfied with my volume tool at my website, but it has a lot of fundamental ideas about how to look at it. The new tool extends upon it...

[The End]

Air, According to Jim Curry, 92% of all 4 year cycle declines have lasted a minimum of three months to bottom. In fact, IF the 4 year low did occur with last summers low, it would have been the shortest decline on record (as well as the smallest % wise). With that said, and givin the fact that around 10 weeks seperate us from those projected lows, I would imagine the cycle bottoms later. We shall C.

[GOOSE2]

there's been more than one discussion about the difficulty in calling tops and i've often had to explain how Hurst's cyclic model theory describes a reason why. that being said, price action of some indexes do seem to be showing a rounding over type action typical at cyclic tops. SPX has achieved the last price projection generated of 1516 +/-15 pts and has not been able to break out of this area. RUT has started a minor trend down. a nominal 10 wk cycle low is due very soon, but i'm looking for signs that the highs might be in for some indices until we get past the nominal 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows due mid/late july. that's only about 10 wks away. aside from big cap SPX and INDU, everything seems sluggish including breadth. still short june er's.

AD.......

10wk = 80 nominal days, yes?

Your last 10 wk was 3-14-07 counting 80 days forward I get 7-4-07

5 wk = 40 nominal days

40 days from 3-14-07 gave us a low on 5-10-07 (41 nominal days). According to Hurst shouldn't I be long off the 5wk low?

What am I missing here? Thanks in advance

[jonbear]

there's been more than one discussion about the difficulty in calling tops and i've often had to explain how Hurst's cyclic model theory describes a reason why. that being said, price action of some indexes do seem to be showing a rounding over type action typical at cyclic tops. SPX has achieved the last price projection generated of 1516 +/-15 pts and has not been able to break out of this area. RUT has started a minor trend down. a nominal 10 wk cycle low is due very soon, but i'm looking for signs that the highs might be in for some indices until we get past the nominal 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows due mid/late july. that's only about 10 wks away. aside from big cap SPX and INDU, everything seems sluggish including breadth. still short june er's.

AD.......

10wk = 80 nominal days, yes?

Your last 10 wk was 3-14-07 counting 80 days forward I get 7-4-07

5 wk = 40 nominal days

40 days from 3-14-07 gave us a low on 5-10-07 (41 nominal days). According to Hurst shouldn't I be long off the 5wk low?

What am I missing here? Thanks in advance

Yesterday Airedale detailed status of various cycles coming due for the SPX at the present time at the link below:

http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry288252

and quoted as follows:

"using SPX cycle lows......

the last 3 samples of the nominal 10 wk cycle averaged 47.5 days. as of monday's close SPX is approx 43.5 days along.

the last 3 samples of the nominal 5 wk cycle averaged 22.8 days. as of monday's close SPX is approx 22.5 days along.

the last 3 samples of the nominal 2.5 wk cycle averaged 11.3 days. as of monday's close SPX is approx 9.5 days along.

the last 3 samples of the nominal 6/7 day cycle averaged 6.6 days. as of monday's close SPX is approx 2 days along.

aside from the 5 wk sample average all other cycles due to bottom at this 10 wk nest of cycle lows suggest a wed thru friday (16th thru 18th) time window."

[GOOSE2]

there's been more than one discussion about the difficulty in calling tops and i've often had to explain how Hurst's cyclic model theory describes a reason why. that being said, price action of some indexes do seem to be showing a rounding over type action typical at cyclic tops. SPX has achieved the last price projection generated of 1516 +/-15 pts and has not been able to break out of this area. RUT has started a minor trend down. a nominal 10 wk cycle low is due very soon, but i'm looking for signs that the highs might be in for some indices until we get past the nominal 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows due mid/late july. that's only about 10 wks away. aside from big cap SPX and INDU, everything seems sluggish including breadth. still short june er's.

AD.......

10wk = 80 nominal days, yes?

Your last 10 wk was 3-14-07 counting 80 days forward I get 7-4-07

5 wk = 40 nominal days

40 days from 3-14-07 gave us a low on 5-10-07 (41 nominal days). According to Hurst shouldn't I be long off the 5wk low?

What am I missing here? Thanks in advance

Yesterday Airedale detailed status of various cycles coming due for the SPX at the present time at the link below:

http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry288252

and quoted as follows:

"using SPX cycle lows......

the last 3 samples of the nominal 10 wk cycle averaged 47.5 days. as of monday's close SPX is approx 43.5 days along.

the last 3 samples of the nominal 5 wk cycle averaged 22.8 days. as of monday's close SPX is approx 22.5 days along.

the last 3 samples of the nominal 2.5 wk cycle averaged 11.3 days. as of monday's close SPX is approx 9.5 days along.

the last 3 samples of the nominal 6/7 day cycle averaged 6.6 days. as of monday's close SPX is approx 2 days along.

aside from the 5 wk sample average all other cycles due to bottom at this 10 wk nest of cycle lows suggest a wed thru friday (16th thru 18th) time window."

Thanks Jon, I missed that post from The Guru


The cycles sure have gotten shorter. 10wks only 47 days?

[Echo]

goose2, we're referring to market days, so 47.5 days is 9.5 wks (where 10wks x 5 trading days = 50 "days"

[airedale88]

goose, counting weekdays only (since most charting systems don't allow for saturday/sunday), the nominal 10 wk cycle has had a historic range of approx 48 to 56 days. in calendar days that's approx 70/80 days. the last three samples averaged 47.5 days. normally these cycles shorten or increase slowly over time in their respective historical ranges but once in a while a wave of the cycle can vary a bit more than the expected average. it's never easy.