14 replies to this topic

[qqqqtrdr]

Some of the sentiment measures are built into the trading patterns or cycles. This is part of the human psychology, everything else is actually in the price and volume measures (or momentum). What separates the cycles and trading patterns from the momentum is the former anticipates and the latter follows the trend. However, the prices can go flat at a cycle through and continue its advance (or vice versa). You'd better check for the liquidity and risk in the market place to gauge the excessive speculation during the cycle throughs and peaks to tell whether the market will change its trend. I look at the yield (credit) spreads, implied volatilities and commodities to gauge the liquidity and risk out there, they tend to lead. There; this is the full pipeline of trading for me...

- kisa

Kisa- I agree that sentiment is only one of the signals. I look at Chaulkin, McClellan, Ultimate, and RSI oscillators for weakness in the internals, and they are all pointing to weakness and have been for the last couple of weeks, so currently it is the only thing keeping me short. If Sentiment was backed up by 10-day average Put/Call Ratio's it would be a strong enough story for me to stay long. It isn't. With that said Put/Call Ratio are slightly showing we have more downside risk in the market instead of upside risk. Although I currently don't have any Sell signals yet on the OEX, CBOE, or equity Put/Call.

Barry

[SemiBizz]

Sentiment is a complete waste of time. If all you get is the market is going up or down that's too little return on the time invested. And people LIE about their positions and attitudes to suit their position. You wait for the polls, I'll just look at the only vote that counts. Real traders don't care about what other traders say they do. Traders think for themselves. Price targets, support, resistance that is the stuff that matters and none of that can be derived from a simpleton bull or bear poll. Besides all you do is divide the community. In fact this is probably the most divisive disrespectful board I've ever seen right next to Yahoo....

Edited by SemiBizz, 17 May 2007 - 02:48 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Sentiment cuts down on whipsaws, which cuts down on self doubt, which increases good trades which increases profits. In moments I can look at sentiment and trend and tell if I should be day trading long, short or not at all. Today, it said, not at all. Mark

[arbman]

Besides all you do is divide the community. In fact this is probably the most divisive disrespectful board I've ever seen right next to Yahoo....

The religious bulls ridiculing the already decimated bears (or vice versa) is a sign that a change in trend is near though and I don't think the polarity in the message boards has anything to do with the polls

I don't rely on the polls for my trading, but I do look at the put/call ratios, speculation in the futures by different trader groups sometimes near the momentum and cyclical turning points...

[OEXCHAOS]

I would think that you could glean something from this sentiment data:

http://www.traders-t...ost&id=5593.png