Posted 20 May 2007 - 10:14 AM
Being mostly a daytrader, I use trin and tick during the day to help time my entries with pretty fair success-a nice tool. I noticed more moments of fairly high negative tick on the move up Friday than I have seen in a LONG time-my simple take was that the rally was being sold into, time will tell. Love the chart, as usual, and think you have a good take here. Your Q chart is one of the major reasons I am only partially long Q puts here. I know the other day, you felt the Q's had made a bottom, and were headed for the 47.40 to 47.50 area, which I also feel is still a possibility-hence my retisense to pull the trigger hard. But, I think you are more convinced than I of the surety of that count and move. I have a 1/5th Q put position, because, at this point, I feel it is just as likely that the "D" count,with "D" allready in plays out-and I fear that if the "D" count were to play out, the drop will be fast and furious, leaving me a less opportune selection of entry point. If we break out up, I feel confident that the 47.40-to 47.50 area contains an optimum entry point for me-so I favor ($$) that scenario-but don't really believe it-as the Q's seem quite reluctant to seek new highs-and, so far, their top was in TWO WEEKS ago. Thanks for your great chart work, and for sharing it here. I think the pool of TA available here benefits us all, and that in the future can develope into something incredibly usefull for our trading. If we move away from thinking that all of our particular techniques are incredibly proprietary, (using the assumption that others will never figuire the same takes out-which I think is a huge "AS IF") I feel the TA interplay here will take us places none of us could get to alone.
For myself, trading the RST patterns roughly two years ago taught me invaluable lessons. Although the pattern is rare, it is quite predictable in terms of both the directions it takes, and the amount of whipsaw it contains. And, for what it's worth, the most important thing I learned is that when "D" is in, it is HIGHLY likely that we go to "E" in the lower right hand corner of the triangle-which will represent MUCH more of a drop for correction than most here are prepared for. On the flip side, should the bottom hold and we go back to the top of the triangle and break out of it, adding the width of the triangle to the breakout of the top of it-should provide a true "shock and awe" move to the upside, as well.
Spooky
