19 replies to this topic

[The End]

These have not worked in the recent past when calling a top. Nonetheless, it's there on the chart. We shall C what the morning brings.

Edited by The End, 23 May 2007 - 03:24 PM.

[fib_1618]

These have not worked in the recent past when calling a top.

That's because they were not Key Reversal's - they were outside range days/weeks...simple next day or week trend reversal patterns.

Today's bar is no different...a simple outside range day which only suggests a down close on Thursday.

Fib

[bullishnot]

Hope you're right on the reversal, anyhow only matter of time before a nice downdraft.

[The End]

These have not worked in the recent past when calling a top.

That's because they were not Key Reversal's - they were outside range days/weeks...simple next day or week trend reversal patterns.

Today's bar is no different...a simple outside range day which only suggests a down close on Thursday.

Fib

I know what a key reversal is Fib. It's a key reversal on a daily chart. We made a new high and closed below yesterdays low.

[fib_1618]

It's a key reversal on a daily chart.

No, it's not, as you're missing two items that qualify this bar pattern as being one of "key".

The surprising thing here is that you started your thread by saying "These have not worked in the recent past when calling a top" and then you go on to say that "I know what a key reversal is". Could it be then that it's not the pattern that hasn't worked for you, but the pattern, in fact, doesn't have all of the qualifications that make a "Key Reversal" just that - "KEY" - and you've simply been misinterpreting the forecast??

It's a simple outside range day...nothing more. If you want to know what's missing this time around, you can bring it up for discussion.

If not, that's OK too.

Fib

[The End]

It's a key reversal on a daily chart.

No, it's not, as you're missing two items that qualify this bar pattern as being one of "key".

The surprising thing here is that you started your thread by saying "These have not worked in the recent past when calling a top" and then you go on to say that "I know what a key reversal is". Could it be then that it's not the pattern that hasn't worked for you, but the pattern, in fact, doesn't have all of the qualifications that make a "Key Reversal" just that - "KEY" - and you've simply been misinterpreting the forecast??

It's a simple outside range day...nothing more. If you want to know what's missing this time around, you can bring it up for discussion.

If not, that's OK too.

Fib

You sir, are incorrect. Today was a key reversal day on the NDX. For the last time. A key reversal (in the case of pointing out a potential top formation) is when price makes a new high for the move and closes below the previous days low. That's it and that's what occured. You can type till tomorrow that I'm wrong but you would be the one who is.

What praytell are the two points I'm missing?

Edited by The End, 23 May 2007 - 06:40 PM.

[BigBadBear]

I'm pretty sure its not a key reversal. Fib, Without going into detail, for reference can you please give the official definition of a 'key' reversal.

[Net]

These have not worked in the recent past when calling a top.

That's because they were not Key Reversal's - they were outside range days/weeks...simple next day or week trend reversal patterns.

Today's bar is no different...a simple outside range day which only suggests a down close on Thursday.

Fib

Hey Fib,

Always enjoy your posts and debate style. Good stuff, and thanks for all your contributions.

It does appear that according to a common definition of a key reversal, this is just what the NDX put in today, as The End as said. It is also what you said, an outside range day. These are not mutually exclusive; I see it as both.

The pattern looks to me like an outside key reversal, with prices breaking to a new high, then closing below the previous day's low, i.e., we have the outside range day (as you have classified it) and we also have the key reversal (as identified by the below definition), hence, outside key reversal (in this case) to the down side.

From this link:

Following an uptrend, any day in which a new high is made, yet prices close near their lows (and preferably on high volume).

Following a downtrend, it is any day in which a new low for the trend is made, but prices close near their daily high (again, preferably on high volume).

If you disagree with the author I have quoted, please provide a link to an alternate definition, as I would enjoy reading up on it and digesting an alternative point of view and the reasoning behind it.

Edited by Net, 23 May 2007 - 06:44 PM.

[voy]

From technicalwatch.com

http://forums.techni...post?id=1664477

--
Joe

[SemiBizz]

Yes, seems to fit the definition T.E. Now of course Mr. Know-it-all is going to challenge the source as usual. For ease of access here is the link:

http://www.incredibl...ey_reversal.htm

Who do you want to believe here? Fib or John Murphy of Stockcharts? From his glossary:

Key Reversal Day: A one day chart pattern where prices sharply reverse during a trend. In an uptrend, prices open in new highs and then close below the previous day's closing price."

Link: http://stockcharts.c...hool:glossary_k

Edited by SemiBizz, 23 May 2007 - 06:49 PM.