6 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

but premature...

Uh oh. The individual investor is back

If everyone is already in stocks, where will money come from to push shares higher still?</h2>By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
May 23 2007: 11:09 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Yep, it's official. Even your grandma is getting bullish about the stock market. And that's as good a reason as any to be prepared for a pullback.

Because as any good contrarian will tell you, the time to get out is when everyone else is in.

"When you see that commercial with the guy showing his boss how to buy stocks on eTrade, that's a cause for concern," said Tom Schrader, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Legg Mason.

Investors have been pouring money into stock mutual funds in four of the past 6 weeks, according to AMG. And a recent survey from the non-profit American Association of Individual Investors showed 42 percent of participants feeling bullish, up from 29 percent two weeks ago.


More here: http://money.cnn.com...oney_topstories

BTW, I think that they are making far too much of far too little. AAII is a long way away from a Sell, though that could change fast.

Mark

[selecto]

Mark, would you happem to know where there is a chart that plots AAII vs SPX? I think VTO had it, but they are gone.

[OEXCHAOS]

Mark, would you happem to know where there is a chart that plots AAII vs SPX? I think VTO had it, but they are gone.

I get mine from Carl Swenlin

http://www.decisionp...arts/0aaii.html

[jmicou]

but premature...

Uh oh. The individual investor is back

If everyone is already in stocks, where will money come from to push shares higher still?</h2>By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
May 23 2007: 11:09 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Yep, it's official. Even your grandma is getting bullish about the stock market. And that's as good a reason as any to be prepared for a pullback.

Because as any good contrarian will tell you, the time to get out is when everyone else is in.

"When you see that commercial with the guy showing his boss how to buy stocks on eTrade, that's a cause for concern," said Tom Schrader, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Legg Mason.

Investors have been pouring money into stock mutual funds in four of the past 6 weeks, according to AMG. And a recent survey from the non-profit American Association of Individual Investors showed 42 percent of participants feeling bullish, up from 29 percent two weeks ago.


More here: http://money.cnn.com...oney_topstories

BTW, I think that they are making far too much of far too little. AAII is a long way away from a Sell, though that could change fast.

Mark

The statement about AMG confuses me when I look at the charts as SentimenTrader. Has there been an extraordinary amount of funds pouring in?

Not a subscriber to AMG, but here is their website.

Agree with you about the AAII.

Edited by jmicou, 23 May 2007 - 07:46 PM.

[eminimee]

There are times where the bears in that survey do get it right......

[jmicou]

There are times where the bears in that survey do get it right......

Yes, when it is down to fewer bears and more bulls for a sustained period of time.

A reaction at these levels is not unexpected. It does not seem that there has been fully a point of recognition, much less a capitulation associated with significant tops. Of course, go with the signals...

[OEXCHAOS]

AAII isn't representative of all sentiment, but still, I'm pretty confident that "THE" top won't be seen until after we've had weeks of really Bullish AAII sentiment. Near term, we can go down 5-10% without this, but IMO barring a major external event, not without more Bullishness in one of the other sectors. I see small hedge funds as very long-term Bullish and short-term Bearish. That's a problem for the Bears in here. Mark