How can the stock market survive this?!?
Bonds and REITs
Started by
arbman
, May 24 2007 09:25 AM
7 replies to this topic
#2
jjc
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Posted 24 May 2007 - 09:26 AM
Sorry, Kisacik - I don't understand your statment.How can the stock market survive this?!?
#3
arbman
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Posted 24 May 2007 - 09:39 AM
I just do not think that the stocks can rally with the bursting housing bubble and tightening lending rules. The small and mid caps pressured by the high rates are already underperforming the large caps since the last summer, red alert?
#4
jjc
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Posted 24 May 2007 - 09:49 AM
The formula will be plenty of $ printing behind the scenes and lots of scary volatility to get people toI just do not think that the stocks can rally with the bursting housing bubble and tightening lending rules. The small and mid caps pressured by the high rates are already underperforming the large caps since the last summer, red alert?
short this unbelievable market.
#5
arbman
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Posted 24 May 2007 - 10:11 AM
I am still in the camp that there will be one more high, but the fuse is getting awfully short...
#6
Cirrus
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Posted 24 May 2007 - 10:11 AM
I reshorted the IYR today. Also shorted some homebulders as I hope the short covering maxed on today's news.
The XAU and now bonds are signaling liquidity is falling.
#7
arbman
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Posted 24 May 2007 - 10:25 AM
The indices are at the breaking point, the selling MUST stop here to have any meaningful rally up. Otherwise, an IT downtrend has begun and it should slip lower quite rapidly. I still favor one more high...
#8
arbman
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Posted 24 May 2007 - 12:18 PM
This is my last post for today, I still favor for one more high (at least), tomorrow should be a low volume drift higher, but Tuesday will be probably down and then the indices should rally to new highs one more time, if not more than once.
The reason is the rates are retreating, perhaps they topped out for a few weeks, however I do not expect the USD to considerably retreat. I expect a huge top in late June and I do not know whether that top will come any earlier or it just did since the selling could accelerate from here a little more...
The institutional investors are definitely unloading onto the unsuspecting crowd at the moment. However, the price and volume says this is not the top, imho. This is an exit ahead of the 3 day weekend and there will be a little more discounting to invite the funds for the strength into the first week of June. I am selectively long and short...
Do you still have doubts? Check this out (securities lending in the secondary market), this sell off is induced:
Never the dealers borrowed so much and yet the market managed to decline for the IT...
- kisa
The reason is the rates are retreating, perhaps they topped out for a few weeks, however I do not expect the USD to considerably retreat. I expect a huge top in late June and I do not know whether that top will come any earlier or it just did since the selling could accelerate from here a little more...
The institutional investors are definitely unloading onto the unsuspecting crowd at the moment. However, the price and volume says this is not the top, imho. This is an exit ahead of the 3 day weekend and there will be a little more discounting to invite the funds for the strength into the first week of June. I am selectively long and short...
Do you still have doubts? Check this out (securities lending in the secondary market), this sell off is induced:
Never the dealers borrowed so much and yet the market managed to decline for the IT...
- kisa
Edited by kisacik, 24 May 2007 - 12:23 PM.
