2 replies to this topic

[crestdorf]

From May 19th Post

http://img510.images...92/135eszd6.gif

Above is updated 135 min of June ES chart posted here Thursday. I have a cycle turn due the 22nd, which is a high +/- a day. Notice the red indicator at bottom dramatically divergent "buying" pressure.Taken in the correct context ie. "where price is in time" the buy sell helps to show distribution or accumulation buy large buyers/sellers. Despite higher prices the indicator IN THIS CONTEXT is divergent to price= look for pull back
A gap up Monday is a short sale for a fill, which is likely to fill Friday's as well. The retest of 693 or so basis the OEX breakout is the minimum I am looking for.
A weak open on Monday will very likely make higher high and get to SPX 1527 area. As I said Thursday, for me the only style is short term here with a lean to the short side until 1527 SPX is closed over.

May 24

http://img517.images...135cont2er6.gif

Following up on the earlier posts, I have a few observations to offer:
1) OEX closes at 693.47 and area mentioned above as minimum tgt.
2) The red indicator below LOC price chart is reflecting a severe oversold condition based on 135 time frame
3) The daily time frame's buy sell indicator had a lower close today than at the March lows.
4) The same "selling pressure" measured at close was equivalent to the close of 5/12/06

Clearly 3) and 4) led to dramaticaly different results as 3) resulted in large rally and 4) in much further selling.
In the context of time and price, cycle low is May 29 +/- 1. Also, the shallow price depreciation so far with dramatic buy sell power deterioration signals potentially a deeper distribution pattern as in May of last year.

Personally, I will remain in the day trading camp till selling pressure shows signs of divergence and more confluent factors come together to form a low.

The extremity of $tick this past few days WITHOUT a sharp massive rally is bearish. In a bull Tick readings less than -1300 most often form lows which V bottom. When they do not happen, price continues lower.

SPX 1527 should be closed over at some point, but OEX 672 area is next level of support if mkt can't get a foothold tommorow in first hour.

[Russ]

So you are saying that SPX should go back up to 1527 but if it can't find support then it may just head for the 50 day ma?

[crestdorf]

So you are saying that SPX should go back up to 1527 but if it can't find support then it may just head for the 50 day ma?

1) There is no clear support much than here and now. If it fails it go to 50 I'd bet. A new sp high close seems likely before correction.