12 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

1529.87 BAGGED AND TAGGED



Posted Yesterday 10:12am

Take a good look at the SPX volume for 5/21 High of 1529.87, last day of extreme volume. That is also a compelling for a retest. I don't come up with a 1509, you must be looking at the contract volumes. AND, note that this last a to b was 1532-1505, and today's high is 1521 or .618 of that move. So if we go much higher, ABC down is cancelled at 1529.87 here we come.

Confirmed on the SPY after market close yesterday: (posted 4:42PM)

This chart is also consistent with 1530 test...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

You can see the stealth sign of strength, with greater volume unable to penetrate Friday's light volume low... and on this chart a quality of volume move has started off today's low...

Posted by OEXCHAOS (Believe SP Futures lead the market) Yesterday after the close:

Next time we get a nice set up, if I'm around, we'll try this exercise again.

All I can say is that it was quite a setup but there was ZIP in that futures chart that could have led you to this conclusion...

SPX Cash RULES !!

[relax]

Nice one!

So what is Cash telling us now - 1550 then down and then final leg up to

1529.87 BAGGED AND TAGGED



Posted Yesterday 10:12am

Take a good look at the SPX volume for 5/21 High of 1529.87, last day of extreme volume. That is also a compelling for a retest. I don't come up with a 1509, you must be looking at the contract volumes. AND, note that this last a to b was 1532-1505, and today's high is 1521 or .618 of that move. So if we go much higher, ABC down is cancelled at 1529.87 here we come.

Confirmed on the SPY after market close yesterday: (posted 4:42PM)

This chart is also consistent with 1530 test...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

You can see the stealth sign of strength, with greater volume unable to penetrate Friday's light volume low... and on this chart a quality of volume move has started off today's low...

Posted by OEXCHAOS (Believe SP Futures lead the market) Yesterday after the close:

Next time we get a nice set up, if I'm around, we'll try this exercise again.

All I can say is that it was quite a setup but there was ZIP in that futures chart that could have led you to this conclusion...

SPX Cash RULES !!

[Mtrader]

SPX will test 1562 before anything happens. SSEC recover today and break new high in a few days.

[jjc]

If you would like: Spell out your rules for determining market direction using volume; and I'll program it and run them agains SPY and ES historic data. We can go over the results and my assumptions before we post the results. Of course, don't feel compelled; You may not want to publish the rules and that's ok too.

[SemiBizz]

I'm not giving up my methodology. The results speak for themselves.

[jjc]

I'm not giving up my methodology. The results speak for themselves.

I understand.

"Of course, don't feel compelled; You may not want to publish the rules and that's ok too."

[OEXCHAOS]

I think that the futures were saying up all day after about 10:00, AND that they were a little iffy on the 1509 target. My 1513 target was nailed however. They didn't give me an upside target, but then I don't know how to do that part yet...you're the expert. My guess, however, had I been trading today, would have been for highs to be tested and there was nothing that would have suggested otherwise in the intra-day volume.

But, anyway, the futures do lead the cash, IMO. Nothing in today's action is inconsistent with that. That you got more out of the cash data may or may not be significant. It could just as well be a function of pure chance. Let me know AFTER you've looked at the futures data for a while. I'll give you more chances to look at it real time as I see set ups and have time.

Meanwhile, what you've taught ME about volume appears to work quite well with the futures. I get bupkis from the cash. Less than bupkis, in fact. Maybe it's just me.

1529.87 BAGGED AND TAGGED

Posted Yesterday 10:12am

Take a good look at the SPX volume for 5/21 High of 1529.87, last day of extreme volume. That is also a compelling for a retest. I don't come up with a 1509, you must be looking at the contract volumes. AND, note that this last a to b was 1532-1505, and today's high is 1521 or .618 of that move. So if we go much higher, ABC down is cancelled at 1529.87 here we come.

Posted by OEXCHAOS (Believe SP Futures lead the market) Yesterday after the close:

Next time we get a nice set up, if I'm around, we'll try this exercise again.

All I can say is that it was quite a setup but there was ZIP in that futures chart that could have led you to this conclusion...

SPX Cash RULES !!

As I said above, could just be the luck of the draw. Statistically insignificant sample of one.

The futures, BTW, suggest higher prices to come. Very Bullish volume late.

Mark

[SemiBizz]

could just be the luck of the draw

Well then... I must be the luckiest SOB in the World.

When I publish a target, what percentage of the time do they hit? A lot.



You can think whatever you want about the futures... I don't have time to argue.

[OEXCHAOS]

BTW, I did say that yesterday's lows might be tested today based upon the volume. They were, but I figured if it didn't happen early, it wasn't going to.

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=290525

could just be the luck of the draw

Well then... I must be the luckiest SOB in the World.

When I publish a target, what percentage of the time do they hit? A lot.

You can think whatever you want about the futures... I don't have time to argue.

You didn't need to be a volume expert to call that target, Semi. Sheeze. I wasn't trading today, so I didn't bother looking but the volume says "higher". Well, hmm, I wonder what the upper target would be... maybe the prior highs?

From a day trading standpoint, however, I can't see how anyone could make a dime trading the cash volume patterns. It's so much easier to see in the futures.

Bear in mind, I don't look at the daily futures volume for anything. Too aberrated.

M

[SemiBizz]

I see, so first I'm lucky, and now it was obvious. Hey man, I stuck my neck out here, I committed to a target and even with a disaster in China last night, and your precious futures down dramatically I stuck to my forecast. I was dead right. But go ahead, dismiss my work. Don't give recognition where it is deserved. Heck you got all kinds of recognition here for a forecast target that didn't happen... So now I'm dead on, and I"m lucky and it was obvious.