5 replies to this topic

[Russ]

Chart looks like it has five waves, however I have other indications that it is going to go up further into 2008, so if we get weakness soon, it could be a buying op.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SSEC&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=p86687670796&r=7028.png

Edited by Russ, 30 May 2007 - 09:17 PM.

[Russ]

Down she goes...
http://ichart.financ...p=s&a=v&p=s.png

[Jnavin]

Biggest 2-day drop on record. Don't worry, be happy.

[fib_1618]

Looks to me that the pattern is in Minute wave 4 of Minor wave 5 of Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave 3...which means, after a couple of weeks of chop, one more "blow off" type high should be seen (5000?), a longer correctional period, and then a final climax where we might see 10,000 on the index before moving even higher still in the future. But what do I know? Fib

[beta]

Looks like a perfect A-B-C swan-dive to me (assuming the downtrend remains in force). Ill be buying ^3500-3600.

Edited by beta, 30 May 2007 - 11:35 PM.

[nimblebear]

The whole china deal will be interesting after the Olympics in '08 are over. They have been building infrastructure like crazy to get ready for it. They are trying to do in 10 years what others may have taken decades. Simple things like pipe in the ground for natural gas, that we've taken for granted for decades, are just now being implemented. Technology wise, they are we were in the 60's. They are trying leapfrog a population 3 times ours into an economy that is better than ours in a very very short period of time. They languished for decades or rather centuries as agrarians. '08 has been their goal to showcase China to the world. They want to stun the world with how modern Bejing and surrounding communities has become. They want to show in such things like transportation, where modern hydrogen fueled taxis and buses, or even buildings that rival anyone anywhere. The standard of living that they would like the world to believe they have, is actually a very very small percentage of the population. So its hardly "the middle." We think our middle class is getting bashed. Well they are trying to create a middle class. With a population 3 times ours. Millions and millions of people still have no running water there. A trailer home, would be upper class to many. What the world will not see is the millions and millions of poor people, constituting more than 1/2 the country's population, literally dying to get into the cities and "make it." Our so called problem of illegal immigration, is miniscule in comparison to the poor moving from farm to city trying to make a living. It is a marvel if you really understand how many people are being mobilized and shifted into a new way of life, so quickly. Their consumption is voracious but hardly the tip of the iceberg. What they have though is a possible massive collapse of a civilization, if GDP growth doesn't continue at a fairly rapid rate for a much longer period of time. India is similar. They all need natural resources. Resources that if analyzed and determined how much on a per capita basis is needed to sustain an "advanced" civilization are simply not there. They will likely have to fight economically, politically, and lastly militarily, if they are to keep the whole thing from imploding. The US accomplished these things and a standard of living over many years, when resources were more plentiful, and with a population that was 10 times smaller than China's. Now you say you want even 1/2 the population to have the same standard of living, of the lower half of our population- You can see the dilema. Even a small rate of growth in standard of living with a population 3 times ours, causes exponential demands on the world's resources. Rapid and dramatic shifts in key resources like oil, which is the fundamental building block of any modern society, and $1.38/gal gas that is now approaching $4 gallon in just 7 years is not surprising. Oil reserve replacement is at the lowest its been in decades and this with advanced technology. Its not hard to imagine $10 gal gas, if we can get it, when that happens. Their economy may need to stumble along the way, just so the rest of the world can catch a breather. The rapid rise of commodity prices is nothing like we've ever had to compare to, since global consumption of those commodities has never been on a scale like we are seeing now. The markets worldwide likely have been attempting to price all of this in. And global exchanges are not nearly as liquid, and efficient as ours, nor have the decades of bumps and bruises that we have been through. So they may show trajectories that go further up and faster, but those same markets will likely see much steeper and deeper sell offs. So what happens to a larger number of investors, worldwide, experiencing any substantial and steep sell off ? Will they keep investing ? Or will they run and hide for awhile, taking their capital with them ? How fast can a lot of money run ? We have trillions sloshing around through the world. Yens, Euros, dollars, etc. What happens if China and India have some decent recessions ? It has happened here so why not there ? Think of the millions of Chinese stock accounts opened over the past 2 years. What happens when they experience a sell off ? Do they have the same wisdom and experience of investors here - the buy and hold "mantra" that has been pumped into our brains for decades now ? This isn't the institutionals - I'm talking about the average investor. Its just kind of fascinating to watch the Shang em high deal. How well has TA worked for that index over the past 3 years ? Just curious.