12 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Now add in today's number .6% for May (chart is quarterly) or your outlook for Q2. It's more than obvious that this number is headed for negative territory. Very reminiscent of what we saw at the end of the Clinton Administration. All I can say is you better have those stops in place. Wall Street's job is to make you think that red is green, and down is up. I'd say judging from what I see today, they are doing an excellent job of it.

Edited by SemiBizz, 31 May 2007 - 09:55 AM.

[fib_1618]

GDP data is nothing but "rear view mirror" information and has very little to do to what the market is discounting in the here and now of what the future holds. This is also the reason why interest rates have stagnated over this same time period. In other words, this is what many will consider a "soft landing" in retrospect. Fib

[SemiBizz]

Lots of KoolAid available on Wall Street.. Now let's look at how we're getting to those highs on the SPX. It's on the back of the oil group. Sure, that makes plenty of sense. Watch what happens to Nasdaq.... We are getting closer, but we're not there yet. Tops take TIME.

[Cirrus]

I won't discount the possibility of a much higher market in 12 months. However, I would wager plenty that if that happens, materials, energy and precious metals will lead the way.

[fib_1618]

Lots of KoolAid available on Wall Street

Yes, and in many assorted flavors!

Now let's look at how we're getting to those highs on the SPX. It's on the back of the oil group.

I do believe that this is cherry flavored Kool Aid - not entirely true, but it is on the back of companies that have a foot hold on international business ventures.

Watch what happens to Nasdaq

This group of stocks are "sub prime" issues that have little or no leadership relationship to the overall picture.

We are getting closer, but we're not there yet. Tops take TIME.

Yes, they do. Very rarely do you see them as spike formations - they tend to be that of the rounding type, and with the current level excess of liquidity on a worldwide level, you're correct...it's going to time before we see any kind of termination point in the current price sequences....lots of time.

Fib

[SemiBizz]

Go ahead and load up on commodities and energy at the highs... I'm not going to stop you. I'll see ya'll a few years from now when you can't get enough of computers, communications and semiconductors at the top. I'll be buying them at the bottom. Go ahead and think Nasdaq is irrelevant. PERFECT.

[fib_1618]

Go ahead and think Nasdaq is irrelevant.

No one said the NASDAQ was "irrelevant", only that too many give too much credit where none is due.

Fib

[Cirrus]

I'm not loading up on energy either. In fact, I see a very nice tradable move to the downside around the corner. That isn't stopping me from doing plenty of swingtrading--most from the long side and some from the short side. I'm staying away from the indexes to a degree and sticking with stocks and groups. There will be a time, coming soon, to load up in a large way on energy, industrial metals and even precious metals.

[SemiBizz]

Go ahead and think Nasdaq is irrelevant.

No one said the NASDAQ was "irrelevant", only that too many give too much credit where none is due.

Fib

Wrong, take a look at what you're typing this into... Get out of your tunnel vision and look 30 years long. And you haven't seen anything yet.

[fib_1618]

Wrong, take a look at what you're typing this into... Get out of your tunnel vision and look 30 years long.

Your decorum and gruff manner is always appreciated Semi...and I know very well who I'm trying typing to - someone who jumps to conclusions, who is always looking for praise, and continues to be spotty in his analysis.

As far as tunnel vision is concerned, it would seem by casual observation that over 90% of your posts fixate on the exchange of "sub prime" issues with little or no regard to the issues that actual control the market - those that trade on the NYSE (or even the AMEX for that matter). Maybe a re-evaluation on your part might be a consideration if, for anything else, to provide a more rounded analytical balance to your work?

And you haven't seen anything yet.

Yes, this we can agree upon. Unfortunately though, you're looking in the wrong direction (both figuratively and in the literal sense).

It's a real shame that your pugnacity gets in the way of your objectivity as you have the tools to be so much better than you are.

So be it.

Fib