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Summer Move

Started by Islander , May 31 2007 11:50 AM

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7 replies to this topic

#1 Islander

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Posted 31 May 2007 - 11:50 AM

High probability melt up this summer. The GDP low number says the recession has likely reached bottom and the US economy will rebound next 4 quarters, now we watch consumer spending (70% of GDP). Right now spending looks "OK" and fuel costs will decline for a time this summer, it will likely rise. Those macro indicators plus, the still overwhelming global liquidity, the heavy international interest in tech and comms, the flow of funds back to international markets, the utter disregard for China's policy on slowing growth, no fear of the Fed = 70/30 in favor of a melt up extenting into August 2007. I am now 100% long equities (50% indexes, 50% individual stocks). This is shift of position for us. Islander. :redbull:

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#2 hiker

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Posted 31 May 2007 - 11:51 AM

shift in position is noticed! have you not been bearish for at least a couple years? I may not have read all your posts, but catch many of them..

Edited by hiker, 31 May 2007 - 11:52 AM.

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#3 Islander

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Posted 31 May 2007 - 11:58 AM

shift in position is noticed!

have you not been bearish for at least a couple years? I may not have read all your posts, but catch many of them..

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Hiker We have been trading and selectively long since 2003 but generally very conservative. Last two years we have been concerned over the fundamentals and the fed. Now we suspect that things will pick up since a recovery is due - we seldom realize we have been in a recession until it is almost over. We are still over 50% Global on equities, but feeling encouraged.

Best Islander

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#4 fib_1618

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Posted 31 May 2007 - 12:11 PM

We are still over 50% Global on equities, but feeling encouraged

And the "point of recognition" continues.

Fib

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#5 Russ

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Posted 31 May 2007 - 12:25 PM

Interesting...long term bear capitulating. Likely means market is just about ready to come down into July.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong

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