6 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

Summations were analyzed and talked about just a few trading days ago here.

NYSI, DOW & NDX, SUMMATIONs

And Here's tonight chart update for comparison and possibly a learning experience.

We will soon see if something more serious is in store.

Edited by Mr Dev, 06 June 2007 - 07:50 PM.

[thespookyone]

It rose for months on negative divergence, and I kept thinking that the longer it went on-the harder it would unwind. Although anything is possible here-I think, as usual-you're on to something,THX!

[Russ]

Why does this chart look like summation is going to rally?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p16911217933&r=7490.png

[Russ]

The daily may be about to be turned away by the macd though...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p57247936572&r=2085.png

[mortiz]

Mr. Dev,

I don't know what your definition of a crash is, but it is unlikely a crash as defined by a 10% or so correction is in the cards with the Dow McSum (and many other McSums) at their current levels. Let the McSums whittle down much lower, then the crash probability will increase substantially.

Overbought? No doubt, which is bullish for the longer term. The only time over the past 18 years the Dow McSum has even been close to its recent high, was in January 2004, and it took six weeks of a weakening McSum before the Dow lost much ground in March 2004. Circled in the below chart is where the Dow began its 5% correction... the Dow McSum was well under +500 when that unfolded.

I likely look at this different than you, since I do not try to play every short term price wiggle, but a range consolidation looks like the most likely outcome if the history of this indicator's behavior holds.



FWIW

Randy N.

PS: very good call on this latest correction.

[Mr Dev]

Mr. Dev,
I don't know what your definition of a crash is, but it is unlikely a crash as defined by a 10% or so correction
is in the cards with the Dow McSum (and many other McSums) at their current levels.

hi Mortiz,
Welll,...I am sorry I didn't see this sooner but that's ok.

Please send me your website,.. or let me review some of your TA and trading history on daily market movements, and allow
me to determine whether I think your thoughts on any market action as being likely, unlikely or logical is
actually necessary.

Please read on tho ... I get nicer at the end.

With all do respect,... I don't put this out there for my health,...I'm usually already positioned to take a
advantage of a -400- -1000 point move in the DOW ...or some other market ...and profit from it.

And please I don't do it off Summation charts alone.

I think this makes about 2 out 3 or ...3 out 4 big calls for the DOW
I've made in the last 12-18 months.

If you are trying to argue against my warning,.. to save people money,... then I think you are doing yourself and others a disservice.

Let's say there is a Hurricane Alert for people evac,,.. what good does it do for you to say .... it probably
won't happen based on your opinion of just one of my chart examples.

One chart is giving you little quantitative advantage,.. I never use just one chart esp to gauge BIG MOVEs.

I just know what charts I want to share to make my point and it never fails...someone wants to bet against
me,,...and usually ends up losing the argument as proven over and over here.

Are you really doing anyone any service? .... Is it anywhere close to the possible negative outcomes that
would result if you are wrong?

I wouldn't put myself in that position and expect anyone to respect me if I were wrong!!!


This amazes me,.. that you have that much lack of respect, ... to bring this up!

Shall we compare trading records?


Maybe I have this all wrong and you were trying to help me. no?

But the market turns,.. and drops from 13,756 intraday highs on June 1st.. 7days ago,.... to a low of 13,236

on June 7th,... after I put out a more than one warning followed by a crash warning... and yuooooo decide to post at

4:30am on June 7th that you don't think a crash is likely, and then DOW Falls another ~200 points that same day!

Then I even post a trade at the end of the day June 7th and go Long....did you trade at all?

The Dow shoots up +157. and I add that to my gains from the last few days,..did you see that move
coming...I did,.. I saw both!

Now at the close June 8th .. I post my SHORT trade again,... why ..because of the charts I've already shared,... when I

predicted a -200 MINIMUM drop,..... for the DOW that were showing this can be a dangerous time when we get

the 'possible' Weekly trend change,...while at the same time we get the Daily trend change.

Add to those charts others and the summations as well,.. and quantitatively you were dealing with FIRE this week !



Now,.. I'm sorry if I've vented a little to much,...but I do NOT need your help on trading the markets,...

or to caution me on what I may be sharing with novice,.. as well as experienced traders on this board or at any trading room.

All well here,...but don't do it again.

Ok? ok.

Edited by Mr Dev, 09 June 2007 - 08:54 PM.

[Mr Dev]