8 replies to this topic

[arbman]

My pattern scan with the current setup (rising moving averages), it looks like 3 crows down on an uptrend and it should retrace to the 0.618 usually (at least). The time frame of this trade is about a week... The odds for this trade is about 65%.

[Russ]

You mean a .618 retrace of the june es high of 1543?

[arbman]

show stocks where close is above 20
and ma(200) is increasing for the last 40 days
and ma(20) is increasing for the last 20 days
and ma(50) is above ma(200)
and PP reached a new 10 Day Low
and PP is below ma(20)
and PP is above lower bollinger band(20, 1)

Max hold: 15 days
Entry Price: open (next day)
Exit Price: close
Risk/Reward ratio: 2

Average holding period: 5 days
Your average net change: 1.93%.
Average draw down: -3.60%.
Average max profit: 5.77%.

Exit Trigger #1: RSI(5) above 75
Exit Trigger #2: PP dropped more than Bollinger Width(20,1)
Exit Trigger #3: RSI(5) below 25


So, I basically looked at a variety of similar stock matches...

Edited by kisacik, 07 June 2007 - 11:36 AM.

[Russ]

OK thanks, once it finds a bottom , perhaps the june es 1520 level is possible.

[arbman]

I got stopped out since I was assuming that the lower bollinger band would hold, it didn't... OK, I am going to try the long side one last time assuming that the close will be above the lower bollinger band, if it can not achieve it by the end of the day, I will exit the position...

[traderx]

show stocks where close is above 20
and ma(200) is increasing for the last 40 days
and ma(20) is increasing for the last 20 days
and ma(50) is above ma(200)
and PP reached a new 10 Day Low
and PP is below ma(20)
and PP is above lower bollinger band(20, 1)

Max hold: 15 days
Entry Price: open (next day)
Exit Price: close
Risk/Reward ratio: 2

Average holding period: 5 days
Your average net change: 1.93%.
Average draw down: -3.60%.
Average max profit: 5.77%.

Exit Trigger #1: RSI(5) above 75
Exit Trigger #2: PP dropped more than Bollinger Width(20,1)
Exit Trigger #3: RSI(5) below 25


So, I basically looked at a variety of similar stock matches...



what is PP? thanks

[arbman]

PP = (open + close + high) / 3 average price... The afternoon selloff completely changed the conditions...

[arbman]

With the new conditions and pattern, the chances are up for the next 3-4 days of weak bounce quality and down for the following 15 days.

The odds are about 83%.

Short any rally.



show stocks where close is above 20
and ma(200) is increasing for the last 40 days
and ma(50) is above ma(200)
and PP reached a new 20 Day Low
and PP is below ma(20)
and PP is above ma(50)
and PP is above lower bollinger band(20, 2)

Edited by kisacik, 07 June 2007 - 02:02 PM.

[arbman]

There is a secondary peak within 10 days though. So I guess we trade a range for a few days, then lower, then test higher and a second wave of sell off... This kind of makes sense since SPX is near its 50 dma and it will bounce and then break lower...