9 replies to this topic

[Islander]

Last week volume says the heavy sell spikes on Tuesday at 10 million, Thurs at 8,9,14 million means many willing sellers, Friday on the other hand had no buy spikes to match the prior sells. In fact Friday was suspiciously "subnormal". My bet, based on volume, there is more selling to come this next week. That, plus the Qs at or near 20ma, SPX at 20ma, and 1525 resistence, OEX at 20MA all say caution. The CLX is only up, but not saying much yet. The retracement may not have buying power to clear resistence. Monday looks like Up them Down. Still short and under water. Appears Oil will retrace its fall to end next week up around 67.50; BPENER is still above 70%. Still see a melt up when it become clear that the USD bonds are less desired that $equities and foreign dollar holders start crowding into US equities (commodies). This will not hurt gold , may not help much just yet, but one day soon it will move. Best, Islander

[Rich]

Still see a melt up when it become clear that the USD bonds are less desired that $equities and foreign dollar holders start crowding into US equities (commodies).

I agree with this. My model continues to point upward. I think we will see the market move higher for at least the next week or two.

Rich

Edited by Rich, 09 June 2007 - 02:59 PM.

[Russ]

My bet, based on volume, there is more selling to come this next week. Islander

I agree with this. My model continues to point upward. I think we will see the market move higher for at least the next week or two.

Rich

Communication breakdown

Edited by Russ, 09 June 2007 - 03:04 PM.

[Russ]

Smaller volume did not prevent the rally from continuing last march.

[Islander]

Smaller volume did not prevent the rally from continuing last march.

--------------------------------------

Yes Russ, there are exceptions to any rule, but I have taken the weight of the data I use. I still have my stops under my short position. Remember, I have a good history of being wrong.

Rich, is just ignoring my misgivings and concentrating the part he likes. Hope you are right Rich.

Regards Islander

[Tor]

Looks like more up to me! Damnit, the volume on the decline was capitulatory, the MCo was at levels seen at every prior major LOW. Strong up day on Friday short covering an new buyers in. Panic sellers, leads to higher prices for at least another week. I dont understand the bearish calls all the time, guess only time will resolve this. Good trading to all as usual.

[Rich]

Rich, is just ignoring my misgivings and concentrating the part he likes.

A wise observation

Good trading,
Rich

[Russ]

Smaller volume did not prevent the rally from continuing last march.

--------------------------------------

Yes Russ, there are exceptions to any rule, but I have taken the weight of the data I use. I still have my stops under my short position. Remember, I have a good history of being wrong.

Rich, is just ignoring my misgivings and concentrating the part he likes. Hope you are right Rich.

Regards Islander

Using special chaiken money settings their are divergences happening right now. Also look at that big white up candle on spx on friday, shows the bulls are in control, I will be very surprised if there is not some follow through into at least early next week. When Asia opens on sunday (north american time) it is likely that they will view the rally on friday as a positive sign and asia will rally hard.

Russ

[Islander]

Looks like more up to me! Damnit, the volume on the decline was capitulatory, the MCo was at levels seen at every prior major LOW. Strong up day on Friday short covering an new buyers in.

Panic sellers, leads to higher prices for at least another week.

I dont understand the bearish calls all the time, guess only time will resolve this.

Good trading to all as usual.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hope you are right, I am just a scientist just calling them as I see them.
I have been manic depressive recently, thanks for cheering me up.
Best Islander.

[TL Trader]

Often when there is a "big" move accompanied with a spike in volume followed immediately by a bar closing in the opposite direction it's signal of at least a temporary reversal. A couple of recent examples.

SPY : 5/10/07 down day with 1.87 times average volume followed by an up day on the 11th. Price peeks out 1.75% above the close on the 11th 8 trading days later. 5/24/07 Another down day with 2.17 times average volume followed by an up close on the 25th. Price peeks out 1.79% higher 4 days later.

QQQQ : 5/15/07 down day with 1.6 times average volume followed by an up day on the 16th. Price goes up 1.76% over the next 5 days.
5/24/07 another down day with 1.84 times average volume followed by an up day on the 25th. Price goes up 2.84% over the next 4 days before correcting again.


Given the recent examples I'll be surprised if the QQQQ doesn't at least challenge recent highs this coming week. The S&P and Dow on the other hand technically look much weaker at the moment. They both took out their previous swing lows, the Q's did not.