7 replies to this topic

[NAV]

We had a small change day on the NYSE and Nasdaq MCOs yesterday. So it's very unlikely that we will see a one-way street trading today. Get ready for some volatility in both directions. That's the reason i closed half my puts. I will continue to add puts if we rally significantly today. As always i am a trader and have some pain threshold. I will share when i decide to capitulate, if forced by the market. For now the path of least resistance still remains down......

[peregrine]

The benchmark I use for a 'small change' day is only 4 points difference from the previous day. Having said that, I use the arithmetic MCOs rather than the ratio adjusted, since imho they give a more consistently accurate indication of 'small change' days. Neither the arithmetic NAMO or NYMO had a small change day yesterday, fwiw.

[OEXCHAOS]

Yup. I'm still looking lower, but it could get choppy.

[NAV]

The benchmark I use for a 'small change' day is only 4 points difference from the previous day.

Having said that, I use the arithmetic MCOs rather than the ratio adjusted, since imho they give a more consistently accurate indication of 'small change' days. Neither the arithmetic NAMO or NYMO had a small change day yesterday, fwiw.

Peregrine,

When you say arithmetic MCOs, i suppose you mean raw MCOs (non ratio adjusted). BTW, i use a crude rule for small change- less than 5 point change.

Mark,

I am looking at 1510-12 for support on Sep ES. I doubt we will move lower than that today based on some Osc configurations i am watching. If we break below that, i would clearly be wrong, but will make loads of money .

Edited by NAV, 12 June 2007 - 09:11 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

I'm already gone at 1515, though I was looking lower. I just smell a bounce. IT, we ought to see 150400ish. At least. Sentiment is a hook here. What worked in an up trend won't work in a down trend. We need REAL pessimism to form a good low. I think we'll get it pretty quickly, but it's not here yet. Mark

[NAV]

I'm already gone at 1515, though I was looking lower. I just smell a bounce.

IT, we ought to see 150400ish. At least.

Sentiment is a hook here. What worked in an up trend won't work in a down trend. We need REAL pessimism to form a good low.

I think we'll get it pretty quickly, but it's not here yet.

Mark

Dip buyers ain't scared yet, cuz it's a gradual decline. We need a spike low to shake off the countertrenders.

I need to start seeing "I am fully hedged now"....."Cash is safe"... "Too dangerous to be either long or short"....... to know that we are close to a bottom

Edited by NAV, 12 June 2007 - 09:53 AM.

[NAV]

Mark, I think i am going to be wrong on my ES 1512-10 target today. The NYSE A/D line looks awful at 82% (decl) vs 14% adv. It's gonna get real ugly today.

[OEXCHAOS]

Mark,

I think i am going to be wrong on my ES 1512-10 target today. The NYSE A/D line looks awful at 82% (decl) vs 14% adv. It's gonna get real ugly today.

Nope! You got your 151200! Nicely done.

Mark